---
title: "Dance case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Dance ($38.93) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 21 items with odds, observed 77.38% over 135 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/dance
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:26Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Dance](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/dance)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Dance

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/dance?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/dance?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/dance) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/dance?window=all)

Price · $38.93 · 55.62 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $35.39 from 21 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 77.38% · 135 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 10.9% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 70.3% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 26 openings · below min

7 days · 89 openings · below min

30 days · 77.38% ±23.67 135 openings

since tracking started · 77.38% ±23.67 135 openings

14.0% 68.5% 123.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/dance?window=24h) | 26 | 68.63% ±53.9 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/dance?window=7d) | 89 | 81.35% ±29.1 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/dance) | 135 | 77.38% ±23.7 | −1.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/dance?window=all) | 135 | 77.38% ±23.7 | −1.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 21 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 135 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-minimal-wear) | 1 in 250 | $277 395 coins | 3.1% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $226 323 coins | 31.9% | 2 | 6.8 | 0.30× |
| [Glock-18 \| Twilight Galaxy (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-twilight-galaxy-field-tested) | 1 in 154 | $193 276 coins | 3.5% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $168 240 coins | 1.4% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $142 203 coins | 2.0% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Spruce DDPAT (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-spruce-ddpat-well-worn) | 1 in 143 | $114 163 coins | 2.3% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-field-tested) | 1 in 182 | $107 153 coins | 1.7% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [MP9 \| Bulldozer (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-bulldozer-field-tested) | 1 in 133 | $90.30 129 coins | 1.9% | 1 | 1.0 | 0.99× |
| [AWP \| Snake Camo (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-snake-camo-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $76.30 109 coins | 4.3% | 2 | 2.7 | 0.74× |
| [M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-battlestar-factory-new) | 1 in 125 | $71.40 102 coins | 1.6% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Field-Tested) (Phase 1) weapon · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-field-tested-phase-1) | 1 in 100 | $64.64 92.34 coins | 1.8% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.74× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-bullet-queen-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $53.33 76.19 coins | 9.8% | 16 | 8.8 | 1.82× |
| [FAMAS \| Sundown (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-sundown-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $46.78 66.83 coins | 4.0% | 8 | 4.0 | 1.98× |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $46.44 66.34 coins | 4.6% | 4 | 4.7 | 0.85× |
| [Sticker \| crush (Foil) \| London 2018 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-crush-foil-london-2018) | 1 in 25 | $40.84 58.34 coins | 4.6% | 8 | 5.4 | 1.48× |
| [FAMAS \| Commemoration (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-commemoration-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $30.51 43.58 coins | 8.6% | 14 | 13.5 | 1.04× |
| [P250 \| Muertos (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-field-tested) | 14.0% | $12.03 17.18 coins | 4.8% | 14 | 18.9 | 0.74× |
| [AUG \| Torque (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-torque-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $8.04 11.48 coins | 1.8% | 14 | 10.8 | 1.30× |
| [USP-S \| Para Green (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-para-green-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $7.86 11.23 coins | 1.6% | 11 | 9.5 | 1.16× |
| [UMP-45 \| Scorched (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-scorched-factory-new) | 12.0% | $6.79 9.7 coins | 2.3% | 13 | 16.2 | 0.80× |
| [UMP-45 \| Momentum (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-momentum-minimal-wear) | 19.4% | $4.31 6.15 coins | 2.4% | 24 | 26.1 | 0.92× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=dance)

[UMP-45 | Momentum (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-momentum-minimal-wear) Hidden $38.93 55.62 coins $4.31 6.15 coins 0.11x 2026-11-11 12:00 UTC

[AUG | Torque (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-torque-factory-new) Hidden $38.93 55.62 coins $8.04 11.48 coins 0.21x 2026-11-11 12:00 UTC

[StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-bullet-queen-field-tested) Hidden $38.93 55.62 coins $53.33 76.19 coins 1.37x 2026-11-11 12:00 UTC

[FAMAS | Commemoration (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-commemoration-minimal-wear) [Miltsukkaaaw :3](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Miltsukkaaaw%20%3A3) $38.93 55.62 coins $30.51 43.58 coins 0.78x 2026-11-11 12:00 UTC

[P250 | Muertos (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-field-tested) Hidden $38.93 55.62 coins $12.03 17.18 coins 0.31x 2026-11-11 07:16 UTC

[★ Hand Wraps | Spruce DDPAT (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-spruce-ddpat-well-worn) Hidden $38.93 55.62 coins $114 163 coins 2.93x 2026-11-11 07:16 UTC

[USP-S | Para Green (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-para-green-minimal-wear) Hidden $38.93 55.62 coins $7.86 11.23 coins 0.20x 2026-11-11 07:16 UTC

[FAMAS | Commemoration (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-commemoration-minimal-wear) Hidden $38.93 55.62 coins $30.51 43.58 coins 0.78x 2026-11-11 07:16 UTC

[FAMAS | Sundown (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-sundown-well-worn) Hidden $38.93 55.62 coins $46.78 66.83 coins 1.20x 2026-11-11 07:16 UTC

[AUG | Torque (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-torque-factory-new) [fast csgoroll.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/fast%20csgoroll.com) $38.93 55.62 coins $8.04 11.48 coins 0.21x 2026-11-11 07:16 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $38.93 | 90.91% | 21 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $39.64 | 90.91% | 21 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $40.26 | 90.91% | 21 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 28.3% classified 34.0% rare 0.3% extraordinary 0.7% restricted 8.8% mil spec 5.0% remarkable 4.0% industrial 7.0% consumer 12.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt