---
title: "Danger Zone case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Danger Zone ($2.07) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.98% from 97 items with odds, observed 88.68% over 30.6K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/danger-zone
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:11Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Danger Zone](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/danger-zone)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Danger Zone

A case on CSGORoll (csgo), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/danger-zone?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/danger-zone?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/danger-zone) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/danger-zone?window=all)

Price · $2.07 · 2.96 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.98% · EV $1.89 from 97 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 88.68% · 30.6K openings, odds method

Variance · 15.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 48 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 87.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 82.94% ±14.31 2,865 openings

7 days · 89.46% ±4.80 25.7K openings

30 days · 88.68% ±4.40 30.6K openings

since tracking started · 88.68% ±4.40 30.6K openings

68.0% 83.0% 98.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/danger-zone?window=24h) | 2,865 | 82.94% ±14.3 | −1.1σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/danger-zone?window=7d) | 25.7K | 89.46% ±4.80 | −0.6σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/danger-zone) | 30.6K | 88.68% ±4.40 | −1.0σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/danger-zone?window=all) | 30.6K | 88.68% ±4.40 | −1.0σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 97 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 30.6K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $767 1,095 coins | 0.4% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Asiimov (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-asiimov-factory-new) | 1 in 33,333 | $477 682 coins | 0.8% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 50,000 | $368 526 coins | 0.4% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $263 375 coins | 1.4% | 1 | 3.1 | 0.33× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $115 165 coins | 1.2% | 2 | 6.1 | 0.33× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-asiimov-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,333 | $106 151 coins | 1.7% | 12 | 9.2 | 1.31× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $61.13 87.33 coins | 3.2% | 29 | 30.6 | 0.95× |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $50.21 71.73 coins | 2.7% | 34 | 30.6 | 1.11× |
| [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $48.50 69.28 coins | 2.6% | 27 | 30.6 | 0.88× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $48.33 69.05 coins | 2.6% | 29 | 30.6 | 0.95× |
| [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $42.41 60.58 coins | 4.5% | 71 | 61.2 | 1.16× |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 500 | $40.12 57.31 coins | 4.3% | 56 | 61.2 | 0.91× |
| [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 333 | $39.55 56.5 coins | 6.3% | 81 | 91.8 | 0.88× |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 500 | $39.37 56.24 coins | 4.2% | 56 | 61.2 | 0.91× |
| [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-well-worn) | 1 in 500 | $38.76 55.37 coins | 4.1% | 56 | 61.2 | 0.91× |
| [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-battle-scarred) | 1 in 333 | $38.76 55.37 coins | 6.2% | 98 | 91.8 | 1.07× |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 500 | $36.79 52.56 coins | 3.9% | 55 | 61.2 | 0.90× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-factory-new) | 1 in 250 | $23.30 33.28 coins | 4.9% | 134 | 122.4 | 1.09× |
| [MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-phosphor-factory-new) | 1 in 250 | $10.79 15.42 coins | 2.3% | 126 | 122.4 | 1.03× |
| [UMP-45 \| Momentum (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-momentum-factory-new) | 1 in 250 | $8.13 11.61 coins | 1.7% | 102 | 122.4 | 0.83× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-minimal-wear) | 1 in 250 | $7.54 10.77 coins | 1.6% | 137 | 122.4 | 1.12× |
| [StatTrak™ MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp5-sd-phosphor-field-tested) | 1 in 250 | $6.40 9.14 coins | 1.4% | 124 | 122.4 | 1.01× |
| [MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-phosphor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 250 | $5.45 7.78 coins | 1.2% | 110 | 122.4 | 0.90× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-field-tested) | 1 in 250 | $5.03 7.19 coins | 1.1% | 133 | 122.4 | 1.09× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-well-worn) | 1 in 200 | $4.93 7.04 coins | 1.3% | 170 | 153.1 | 1.11× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-battle-scarred) | 1 in 200 | $4.90 7 coins | 1.3% | 138 | 153.1 | 0.90× |
| [M4A4 \| Magnesium (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-factory-new) | 1 in 250 | $4.70 6.72 coins | 1.0% | 117 | 122.4 | 0.96× |
| [MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-phosphor-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $4.66 6.66 coins | 1.2% | 148 | 153.1 | 0.97× |
| [UMP-45 \| Momentum (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-momentum-battle-scarred) | 1 in 200 | $4.45 6.36 coins | 1.2% | 164 | 153.1 | 1.07× |
| [UMP-45 \| Momentum (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-momentum-well-worn) | 1 in 200 | $4.45 6.36 coins | 1.2% | 151 | 153.1 | 0.99× |
| [UMP-45 \| Momentum (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-momentum-minimal-wear) | 1 in 250 | $4.31 6.15 coins | 0.9% | 123 | 122.4 | 1.00× |
| [UMP-45 \| Momentum (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-momentum-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $4.27 6.1 coins | 1.1% | 152 | 153.1 | 0.99× |
| [Tec-9 \| Fubar (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fubar-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $3.98 5.68 coins | 2.1% | 297 | 306.1 | 0.97× |
| [MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-pipe-down-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $3.86 5.51 coins | 1.0% | 185 | 153.1 | 1.21× |
| [MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-phosphor-well-worn) | 1 in 167 | $3.46 4.94 coins | 1.1% | 177 | 183.7 | 0.96× |
| [MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-phosphor-battle-scarred) | 1 in 200 | $3.37 4.81 coins | 0.9% | 154 | 153.1 | 1.01× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Magnesium (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-magnesium-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $3.10 4.43 coins | 0.8% | 145 | 153.1 | 0.95× |
| [USP-S \| Flashback (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-flashback-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $2.18 3.11 coins | 0.6% | 145 | 153.1 | 0.95× |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Nevermore (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-nevermore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 167 | $1.83 2.62 coins | 0.6% | 210 | 183.7 | 1.14× |
| [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Signal (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-signal-minimal-wear) | 1 in 167 | $1.83 2.61 coins | 0.6% | 179 | 183.7 | 0.97× |
| [P250 \| Nevermore (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nevermore-factory-new) | 1 in 167 | $1.75 2.5 coins | 0.6% | 166 | 183.7 | 0.90× |
| [Glock-18 \| Oxide Blaze (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-oxide-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $1.72 2.46 coins | 0.9% | 323 | 306.1 | 1.06× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Flashback (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-flashback-minimal-wear) | 1 in 143 | $1.54 2.2 coins | 0.6% | 206 | 214.3 | 0.96× |
| [G3SG1 \| Scavenger (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-scavenger-factory-new) | 1 in 143 | $1.50 2.14 coins | 0.6% | 208 | 214.3 | 0.97× |
| [Galil AR \| Signal (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-signal-factory-new) | 1 in 167 | $1.48 2.11 coins | 0.5% | 173 | 183.7 | 0.94× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Magnesium (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-magnesium-field-tested) | 1 in 143 | $1.43 2.04 coins | 0.5% | 232 | 214.3 | 1.08× |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Nevermore (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-nevermore-field-tested) | 1 in 143 | $1.34 1.91 coins | 0.5% | 213 | 214.3 | 0.99× |
| [MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-pipe-down-minimal-wear) | 1 in 143 | $1.03 1.47 coins | 0.4% | 210 | 214.3 | 0.98× |
| [M4A4 \| Magnesium (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $1.02 1.45 coins | 0.5% | 294 | 306.1 | 0.96× |
| [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Signal (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-signal-field-tested) | 1 in 143 | $0.89 1.27 coins | 0.3% | 194 | 214.3 | 0.91× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Flashback (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-flashback-field-tested) | 1 in 143 | $0.85 1.21 coins | 0.3% | 212 | 214.3 | 0.99× |
| [P250 \| Nevermore (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nevermore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 143 | $0.85 1.21 coins | 0.3% | 204 | 214.3 | 0.95× |
| [Galil AR \| Signal (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-signal-minimal-wear) | 1 in 143 | $0.78 1.12 coins | 0.3% | 232 | 214.3 | 1.08× |
| [P250 \| Nevermore (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nevermore-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $0.76 1.08 coins | 0.4% | 305 | 306.1 | 1.00× |
| [P250 \| Nevermore (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nevermore-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $0.74 1.06 coins | 0.4% | 309 | 306.1 | 1.01× |
| [StatTrak™ G3SG1 \| Scavenger (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-g3sg1-scavenger-field-tested) | 1 in 143 | $0.63 0.9 coins | 0.2% | 231 | 214.3 | 1.08× |
| [G3SG1 \| Scavenger (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-scavenger-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $0.61 0.87 coins | 0.3% | 314 | 306.1 | 1.03× |
| [USP-S \| Flashback (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-flashback-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $0.57 0.82 coins | 0.3% | 324 | 306.1 | 1.06× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Magnesium (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-magnesium-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $0.55 0.78 coins | 0.3% | 281 | 306.1 | 0.92× |
| [Nova \| Wood Fired (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-wood-fired-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $0.52 0.75 coins | 0.6% | 610 | 612.2 | 1.00× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Black Sand (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-black-sand-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $0.52 0.74 coins | 0.3% | 298 | 306.1 | 0.97× |
| [Nova \| Wood Fired (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-wood-fired-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $0.51 0.73 coins | 0.5% | 636 | 612.2 | 1.04× |
| [Galil AR \| Signal (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-signal-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $0.50 0.71 coins | 0.3% | 311 | 306.1 | 1.02× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Oxide Blaze (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-oxide-blaze-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $0.50 0.71 coins | 0.3% | 326 | 306.1 | 1.06× |
| [Galil AR \| Signal (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-signal-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $0.50 0.71 coins | 0.3% | 306 | 306.1 | 1.00× |
| [Galil AR \| Signal (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-signal-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $0.48 0.69 coins | 0.3% | 327 | 306.1 | 1.07× |
| [MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-pipe-down-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $0.45 0.65 coins | 0.2% | 306 | 306.1 | 1.00× |
| [USP-S \| Flashback (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-flashback-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $0.43 0.62 coins | 0.2% | 298 | 306.1 | 0.97× |
| [USP-S \| Flashback (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-flashback-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $0.43 0.62 coins | 0.2% | 295 | 306.1 | 0.96× |
| [USP-S \| Flashback (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-flashback-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $0.43 0.62 coins | 0.2% | 301 | 306.1 | 0.98× |
| [G3SG1 \| Scavenger (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-scavenger-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $0.42 0.6 coins | 0.2% | 299 | 306.1 | 0.98× |
| [M4A4 \| Magnesium (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $0.42 0.6 coins | 0.4% | 643 | 612.2 | 1.05× |
| [G3SG1 \| Scavenger (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-scavenger-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $0.40 0.57 coins | 0.2% | 295 | 306.1 | 0.96× |
| [MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-pipe-down-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $0.40 0.57 coins | 0.2% | 305 | 306.1 | 1.00× |
| [G3SG1 \| Scavenger (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-scavenger-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $0.39 0.55 coins | 0.2% | 323 | 306.1 | 1.06× |
| [MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-pipe-down-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $0.38 0.54 coins | 0.2% | 305 | 306.1 | 1.00× |
| [MP9 \| Modest Threat (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-modest-threat-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $0.29 0.42 coins | 0.3% | 597 | 612.2 | 0.98× |
| [Glock-18 \| Oxide Blaze (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-oxide-blaze-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $0.27 0.39 coins | 0.3% | 602 | 612.2 | 0.98× |
| [Tec-9 \| Fubar (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fubar-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $0.26 0.37 coins | 0.3% | 640 | 612.2 | 1.05× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Oxide Blaze (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-oxide-blaze-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $0.24 0.34 coins | 0.3% | 638 | 612.2 | 1.04× |
| [Nova \| Wood Fired (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-wood-fired-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $0.24 0.34 coins | 0.4% | 888 | 918.4 | 0.97× |
| [Nova \| Wood Fired (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-wood-fired-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $0.24 0.34 coins | 0.4% | 872 | 918.4 | 0.95× |
| [Nova \| Wood Fired (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-wood-fired-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $0.23 0.33 coins | 0.2% | 558 | 612.2 | 0.91× |
| [MP9 \| Modest Threat (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-modest-threat-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $0.22 0.32 coins | 0.2% | 636 | 612.2 | 1.04× |
| [MP9 \| Modest Threat (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-modest-threat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $0.22 0.31 coins | 0.2% | 624 | 612.2 | 1.02× |
| [Glock-18 \| Oxide Blaze (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-oxide-blaze-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $0.22 0.31 coins | 0.2% | 643 | 612.2 | 1.05× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Black Sand (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-black-sand-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $0.21 0.3 coins | 0.2% | 629 | 612.2 | 1.03× |
| [M4A4 \| Magnesium (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $0.21 0.3 coins | 0.2% | 607 | 612.2 | 0.99× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Black Sand (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-black-sand-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $0.21 0.3 coins | 0.3% | 882 | 918.4 | 0.96× |
| [M4A4 \| Magnesium (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-battle-scarred) | 1 in 43 | $0.20 0.29 coins | 0.3% | 696 | 714.5 | 0.97× |
| [Tec-9 \| Fubar (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fubar-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $0.17 0.25 coins | 0.3% | 921 | 918.4 | 1.00× |
| [MP9 \| Modest Threat (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-modest-threat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $0.17 0.25 coins | 0.3% | 998 | 918.4 | 1.09× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Black Sand (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-black-sand-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $0.17 0.24 coins | 0.3% | 928 | 918.4 | 1.01× |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Danger Close (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-danger-close-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $0.15 0.22 coins | 0.2% | 621 | 612.2 | 1.01× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Black Sand (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-black-sand-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $0.15 0.22 coins | 0.2% | 908 | 918.4 | 0.99× |
| [Tec-9 \| Fubar (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fubar-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $0.15 0.22 coins | 0.2% | 930 | 918.4 | 1.01× |
| [Glock-18 \| Oxide Blaze (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-oxide-blaze-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $0.13 0.19 coins | 0.2% | 850 | 918.4 | 0.93× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Talon Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $2.08 2.97 coins $746 1,065 coins 358.6x 2026-11-06 11:00 UTC

[StatTrak™ AK-47 | Asiimov (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-asiimov-factory-new) Hidden $2.09 2.98 coins $489 698 coins 234.2x 2026-11-03 18:45 UTC

[StatTrak™ AK-47 | Asiimov (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-asiimov-factory-new) [Darkpik](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Darkpik) $2.09 2.98 coins $489 698 coins 234.2x 2026-11-02 22:13 UTC

[AK-47 | Asiimov (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-factory-new) Hidden $2.08 2.97 coins $268 383 coins 129.0x 2026-11-06 10:16 UTC

[★ Navaja Knife | Ultraviolet (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-ultraviolet-factory-new) Hidden $2.09 2.98 coins $115 165 coins 55.37x 2026-11-07 21:38 UTC

[★ Navaja Knife | Ultraviolet (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-ultraviolet-factory-new) Hidden $2.08 2.97 coins $115 165 coins 55.56x 2026-11-05 00:13 UTC

[StatTrak™ AK-47 | Asiimov (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-asiimov-minimal-wear) [Pilu bzw.VioLLin csgoroll.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Pilu%20bzw.VioLLin%20csgoroll.com) $2.08 2.97 coins $114 163 coins 54.88x 2026-11-08 10:09 UTC

[StatTrak™ AK-47 | Asiimov (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-asiimov-minimal-wear) Hidden $2.08 2.97 coins $114 163 coins 54.88x 2026-11-07 12:52 UTC

[StatTrak™ AK-47 | Asiimov (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-asiimov-minimal-wear) Hidden $2.08 2.97 coins $114 163 coins 54.88x 2026-11-06 17:57 UTC

[StatTrak™ AK-47 | Asiimov (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-asiimov-minimal-wear) Hidden $2.08 2.97 coins $114 163 coins 54.88x 2026-11-05 18:04 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=danger-zone)

[AK-47 | Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-well-worn) Hidden $2.07 2.96 coins $39.37 56.24 coins 19.00x 2026-11-11 13:10 UTC

[Tec-9 | Fubar (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fubar-minimal-wear) Hidden $2.07 2.96 coins $3.98 5.68 coins 1.92x 2026-11-11 12:57 UTC

[Galil AR | Signal (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-signal-battle-scarred) [si^b^rO](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/si%5Eb%5ErO) $2.07 2.96 coins $0.50 0.71 coins 0.24x 2026-11-11 12:57 UTC

[Nova | Wood Fired (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-wood-fired-well-worn) Hidden $2.07 2.96 coins $0.24 0.34 coins 0.11x 2026-11-11 12:57 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Black Sand (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-black-sand-field-tested) Hidden $2.07 2.96 coins $0.21 0.3 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Black Sand (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-black-sand-minimal-wear) Hidden $2.07 2.96 coins $0.21 0.3 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC

[USP-S | Flashback (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-flashback-field-tested) [CARRITOS MAISTER](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/CARRITOS%20MAISTER) $2.07 2.96 coins $0.43 0.62 coins 0.21x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC

[Nova | Wood Fired (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-wood-fired-field-tested) Hidden $2.07 2.96 coins $0.23 0.33 coins 0.11x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC

[USP-S | Flashback (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-flashback-minimal-wear) Hidden $2.07 2.96 coins $0.57 0.82 coins 0.28x 2026-11-11 12:48 UTC

[M4A4 | Magnesium (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-minimal-wear) Hidden $2.07 2.96 coins $1.02 1.45 coins 0.49x 2026-11-11 12:48 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC | $2.07 | 90.98% | 97 |
| 10 Nov, 20:20 UTC | $2.07 | 90.98% | 97 |
| 10 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $2.07 | 90.94% | 97 |
| 9 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $2.07 | 90.95% | 97 |
| 9 Nov, 02:02 UTC | $2.07 | 91.02% | 97 |
| 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $2.08 | 90.79% | 97 |
| 9 Nov, 00:04 UTC | $2.08 | 90.83% | 97 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $2.08 | 90.86% | 97 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $2.08 | 90.90% | 97 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $2.08 | 91.06% | 97 |
| 7 Nov, 23:21 UTC | $2.09 | 90.76% | 97 |
| 6 Nov, 22:57 UTC | $2.08 | 90.98% | 97 |
| 6 Nov, 10:50 UTC | $2.08 | 90.98% | 97 |
| 5 Nov, 22:45 UTC | $2.08 | 90.96% | 97 |
| 5 Nov, 10:39 UTC | $2.08 | 91.06% | 97 |
| 4 Nov, 22:33 UTC | $2.08 | 91.05% | 97 |
| 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $2.08 | 91.03% | 97 |
| 3 Nov, 07:26 UTC | $2.09 | 90.76% | 97 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $2.09 | 90.76% | 97 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed epic 0.0% covert 1.9% rare 0.0% Ancient 0.1% classified 5.9% Legendary 1.4% mil spec 60.9% restricted 23.7% Rare 1.0% violet 1.0% #8847ff 1.0% blue 3.0% best hit $746 (358.6x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 91.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.98 on average: an expected loss of $9.02 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt