---
title: "Daredevil Case case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Daredevil Case ($72.77) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 15 items with odds, observed 79.56% over 312 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/daredevil-case
rendered: 2026-11-11T15:10Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Daredevil Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/daredevil-case)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Daredevil Case

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/daredevil-case?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/daredevil-case?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/daredevil-case) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/daredevil-case?window=all)

Price · $72.77 · 104 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $66.16 from 15 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 79.56% · 312 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 19.1% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 77.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 54 openings · below min

7 days · 77.81% ±17.22 259 openings

30 days · 79.56% ±15.68 312 openings

since tracking started · 79.56% ±15.68 312 openings

34.5% 73.0% 111.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/daredevil-case?window=24h) | 54 | 73.07% ±37.8 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/daredevil-case?window=7d) | 259 | 77.81% ±17.2 | −1.5σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/daredevil-case) | 312 | 79.56% ±15.7 | −1.4σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/daredevil-case?window=all) | 312 | 79.56% ±15.7 | −1.4σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 312 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Slaughter (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $1,292 1,845 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| X-Ray (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20,000 | $947 1,353 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20,000 | $552 788 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $410 586 coins | 24.8% | 7 | 12.5 | 0.56× |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-cobalt-skulls-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $310 443 coins | 0.5% | 2 | 0.3 | — |
| [AUG \| Flame Jörmungandr (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-flame-jormungandr-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $298 426 coins | 4.5% | 2 | 3.1 | 0.64× |
| [G3SG1 \| Chronos (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-chronos-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $266 380 coins | 16.1% | 15 | 12.5 | 1.20× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-factory-new) | 10.0% | $186 266 coins | 28.1% | 27 | 31.2 | 0.87× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $122 175 coins | 5.6% | 3 | 9.4 | 0.32× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-bullet-queen-field-tested) | 10.0% | $53.33 76.19 coins | 8.1% | 36 | 31.2 | 1.15× |
| [MP9 \| Hydra (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-factory-new) | 10.0% | $39.71 56.73 coins | 6.0% | 29 | 31.2 | 0.93× |
| [XM1014 \| Heaven Guard (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-heaven-guard-factory-new) | 10.9% | $12.38 17.68 coins | 2.0% | 46 | 34.0 | 1.35× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-phantom-disruptor-well-worn) | 12.0% | $11.97 17.1 coins | 2.2% | 37 | 37.4 | 0.99× |
| [UMP-45 \| Momentum (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-momentum-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $4.31 6.15 coins | 1.0% | 36 | 46.8 | 0.77× |
| [AWP \| Worm God (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-worm-god-factory-new) | 20.0% | $3.51 5.01 coins | 1.1% | 72 | 62.4 | 1.15× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=daredevil-case)

[AWP | Worm God (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-worm-god-factory-new) Hidden $72.77 104 coins $3.51 5.01 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 05:09 UTC

[XM1014 | Heaven Guard (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-heaven-guard-factory-new) [Kickerrrrrrrr](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Kickerrrrrrrr) $72.77 104 coins $12.38 17.68 coins 0.17x 2026-11-11 05:09 UTC

[M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-factory-new) Hidden $72.77 104 coins $186 266 coins 2.56x 2026-11-11 05:09 UTC

[StatTrak™ AK-47 | Phantom Disruptor (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-phantom-disruptor-well-worn) Hidden $72.77 104 coins $11.97 17.1 coins 0.16x 2026-11-11 05:09 UTC

[UMP-45 | Momentum (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-momentum-minimal-wear) Hidden $72.77 104 coins $4.31 6.15 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 05:08 UTC

[AWP | Worm God (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-worm-god-factory-new) Hidden $72.77 104 coins $3.51 5.01 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 05:08 UTC

[XM1014 | Heaven Guard (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-heaven-guard-factory-new) Hidden $72.77 104 coins $12.38 17.68 coins 0.17x 2026-11-11 05:08 UTC

[StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-bullet-queen-field-tested) Hidden $72.77 104 coins $53.33 76.19 coins 0.73x 2026-11-11 05:08 UTC

[M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-factory-new) Hidden $72.77 104 coins $186 266 coins 2.56x 2026-11-11 05:08 UTC

[StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-bullet-queen-field-tested) [Blair](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Blair) $72.77 104 coins $53.33 76.19 coins 0.73x 2026-11-11 05:08 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $72.77 | 90.91% | 15 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $72.83 | 90.91% | 15 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $71.25 | 90.91% | 15 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed extraordinary 0.1% covert 17.0% restricted 35.9% classified 47.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt