--- title: "Dark Matter case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Dark Matter ($70.57) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 7 items with odds, observed 95.60% over 4,444 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/dark-matter rendered: 2026-11-11T15:26Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Dark Matter](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/dark-matter) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Dark Matter A case on CSGORoll (10%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/dark-matter?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/dark-matter?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/dark-matter) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/dark-matter?window=all) Price · $70.57 · 101 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $64.16 from 7 items Observed RTP, 30d · 95.60% · 4,444 openings, odds method Variance · 25.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 67 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 141.30% ±52.13 365 openings 7 days · 92.75% ±17.84 3,096 openings 30 days · 95.60% ±14.87 4,444 openings since tracking started · 95.60% ±14.87 4,444 openings 74.5% 134.3% 194.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/dark-matter?window=24h) | 365 | 141.30% ±52.1 | +1.9σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/dark-matter?window=7d) | 3,096 | 92.75% ±17.8 | +0.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/dark-matter) | 4,444 | 95.60% ±14.9 | +0.6σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/dark-matter?window=all) | 4,444 | 95.60% ±14.9 | +0.6σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,444 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 200 | $4,617 6,595 coins | 36.0% | 22 | 22.2 | 0.99× | | [M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $1,114 1,591 coins | 17.4% | 44 | 44.4 | 0.99× | | [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $646 923 coins | 10.1% | 47 | 44.4 | 1.06× | | [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-battle-scarred) | 1 in 40 | $532 760 coins | 20.7% | 127 | 111.1 | 1.14× | | [★ Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $316 452 coins | 9.9% | 110 | 88.9 | 1.24× | | [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $128 183 coins | 6.0% | 129 | 133.3 | 0.97× | | [P250 \| Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) | 90.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 3,965 | 3999.6 | 0.99× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AWP | Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-battle-scarred) Hidden $71.53 102 coins $4,631 6,615 coins 64.74x 2026-11-08 05:51 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-battle-scarred) Hidden $71.53 102 coins $4,631 6,615 coins 64.74x 2026-11-07 02:46 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-battle-scarred) Hidden $71.53 102 coins $4,631 6,615 coins 64.74x 2026-11-07 02:42 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-battle-scarred) Hidden $71.53 102 coins $4,631 6,615 coins 64.74x 2026-11-06 20:01 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-battle-scarred) Hidden $71.53 102 coins $4,631 6,615 coins 64.74x 2026-11-05 02:22 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-battle-scarred) Hidden $71.53 102 coins $4,631 6,615 coins 64.74x 2026-11-05 00:39 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-battle-scarred) [Hakki](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Hakki) $71.53 102 coins $4,631 6,615 coins 64.74x 2026-11-04 21:35 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-battle-scarred) Hidden $71.53 102 coins $4,631 6,615 coins 64.74x 2026-11-04 12:06 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-battle-scarred) [sbears](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/sbears) $71.53 102 coins $4,631 6,615 coins 64.74x 2026-11-04 12:06 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-battle-scarred) Hidden $71.53 102 coins $4,631 6,615 coins 64.74x 2026-11-04 10:06 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=dark-matter) [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $70.57 101 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:51 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $70.57 101 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:51 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $70.57 101 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:51 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $70.57 101 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:51 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) [AWP GOD](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/AWP%20GOD) $70.57 101 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:51 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $70.57 101 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:51 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) [Kickerrrrrrrr](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Kickerrrrrrrr) $70.57 101 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:05 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $70.57 101 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:05 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $70.57 101 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:05 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) [Kickerrrrrrrr](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Kickerrrrrrrr) $70.57 101 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:05 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $70.57 | 90.91% | 7 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $71.53 | 90.91% | 7 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 9.0% classified 1.0% consumer 90.0% best hit $4,631 (64.74x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt