---
title: "David case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "David ($12.29) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.89% from 12 items with odds, observed 100.03% over 2,883 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/david
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:04Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [David](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/david)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · David

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/david?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/david?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/david) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/david?window=all)

Price · $12.29 · 17.56 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.89% · EV $11.17 from 12 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 100.03% · 2,883 openings, odds method

Variance · 12.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 12.4% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 71.6% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 87.84% ±33.42 442 openings

7 days · 102.79% ±14.37 2,459 openings

30 days · 100.03% ±13.29 2,883 openings

since tracking started · 100.03% ±13.29 2,883 openings

54.0% 88.0% 122.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/david?window=24h) | 442 | 87.84% ±33.4 | −0.2σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/david?window=7d) | 2,459 | 102.79% ±14.4 | +1.6σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/david) | 2,883 | 100.03% ±13.3 | +1.4σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/david?window=all) | 2,883 | 100.03% ±13.3 | +1.4σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,889 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Slingshot (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-slingshot-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $4,025 5,750 coins | 3.6% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $230 328 coins | 2.1% | 2 | 2.9 | 0.69× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-bright-water-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $124 177 coins | 3.3% | 8 | 8.7 | 0.92× |
| [★ Classic Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-blue-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $98.70 141 coins | 4.4% | 11 | 14.4 | 0.76× |
| [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Battle-Scarred) (Phase 1) weapon · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-battle-scarred-phase-1) | 1 in 40 | $63.34 90.49 coins | 14.2% | 73 | 72.2 | 1.01× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Night (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-night-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $57.75 82.5 coins | 5.2% | 32 | 28.9 | 1.11× |
| [USP-S \| Pathfinder (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pathfinder-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $38.47 54.96 coins | 27.5% | 259 | 231.1 | 1.12× |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $16.14 23.06 coins | 5.8% | 107 | 115.6 | 0.93× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-light-rail-factory-new) | 12.0% | $16.08 22.97 coins | 17.3% | 334 | 346.7 | 0.96× |
| [M4A4 \| Jungle Tiger (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-jungle-tiger-battle-scarred) | 20.0% | $3.86 5.52 coins | 6.9% | 584 | 577.8 | 1.01× |
| [FAMAS \| Macabre (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-macabre-field-tested) | 25.0% | $2.96 4.23 coins | 6.6% | 715 | 722.3 | 0.99× |
| [UMP-45 \| Gunsmoke (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-gunsmoke-factory-new) | 26.6% | $1.31 1.87 coins | 3.1% | 763 | 768.2 | 0.99× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Sport Gloves | Slingshot (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-slingshot-factory-new) Hidden $11.98 17.12 coins $4,025 5,750 coins 335.9x 2026-11-04 15:36 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=david)

[M4A4 | Jungle Tiger (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-jungle-tiger-battle-scarred) Hidden $12.29 17.56 coins $3.86 5.52 coins 0.31x 2026-11-11 14:01 UTC

[FAMAS | Macabre (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-macabre-field-tested) [Epexxx](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Epexxx) $12.29 17.56 coins $2.96 4.23 coins 0.24x 2026-11-11 14:01 UTC

[StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Light Rail (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-light-rail-factory-new) Hidden $12.29 17.56 coins $16.08 22.97 coins 1.31x 2026-11-11 14:01 UTC

[StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Light Rail (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-light-rail-factory-new) Hidden $12.29 17.56 coins $16.08 22.97 coins 1.31x 2026-11-11 14:01 UTC

[M4A4 | Jungle Tiger (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-jungle-tiger-battle-scarred) Hidden $12.29 17.56 coins $3.86 5.52 coins 0.31x 2026-11-11 13:59 UTC

[UMP-45 | Gunsmoke (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-gunsmoke-factory-new) Hidden $12.29 17.56 coins $1.31 1.87 coins 0.11x 2026-11-11 13:59 UTC

[M4A4 | Jungle Tiger (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-jungle-tiger-battle-scarred) Hidden $12.29 17.56 coins $3.86 5.52 coins 0.31x 2026-11-11 13:59 UTC

[FAMAS | Macabre (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-macabre-field-tested) Hidden $12.29 17.56 coins $2.96 4.23 coins 0.24x 2026-11-11 13:59 UTC

[FAMAS | Macabre (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-macabre-field-tested) Hidden $12.29 17.56 coins $2.96 4.23 coins 0.24x 2026-11-11 13:59 UTC

[StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Light Rail (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-light-rail-factory-new) [Jarza](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Jarza) $12.29 17.56 coins $16.08 22.97 coins 1.31x 2026-11-11 13:59 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 9 Nov, 20:11 UTC | $12.29 | 90.89% | 12 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $12.26 | 90.93% | 12 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $11.98 | 90.92% | 12 |
| 6 Nov, 22:57 UTC | $12.02 | 90.91% | 12 |
| 3 Nov, 09:32 UTC | $11.98 | 90.91% | 12 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $12.10 | 90.88% | 12 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed extraordinary 0.0% covert 4.4% industrial 54.6% classified 4.0% restricted 12.0% mil spec 25.0% best hit $4,025 (335.9x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.89 on average: an expected loss of $9.11 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt