--- title: "Dawn case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Dawn ($32.25) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 26 items with odds, observed 90.47% over 932 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/dawn rendered: 2026-11-11T14:02Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Dawn](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/dawn) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Dawn A case on CSGORoll (30%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/dawn?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/dawn?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/dawn) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/dawn?window=all) Price · $32.25 · 46.07 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $29.32 from 26 items Observed RTP, 30d · 90.47% · 932 openings, odds method Variance · 2.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 20.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 70.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 83 openings · below min 7 days · 92.02% ±10.73 802 openings 30 days · 90.47% ±9.96 932 openings since tracking started · 90.47% ±9.96 932 openings 52.0% 85.5% 119.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/dawn?window=24h) | 83 | 85.41% ±33.0 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/dawn?window=7d) | 802 | 92.02% ±10.7 | +0.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/dawn) | 932 | 90.47% ±9.96 | −0.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/dawn?window=all) | 932 | 90.47% ±9.96 | −0.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 26 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 932 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Occult (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-occult-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,644 2,349 coins | 0.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Sunburst (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-sunburst-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,364 1,948 coins | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Brocade Crane (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-brocade-crane-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,343 1,919 coins | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Sticker \| Howling Dawn sticker · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-howling-dawn) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,130 1,614 coins | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $911 1,302 coins | 0.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Blaze (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $875 1,250 coins | 0.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · gold · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 2,000 | $536 766 coins | 0.9% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 壱 (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sunset-storm-minimal-wear-2) | 1 in 2,000 | $421 602 coins | 0.7% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Garden (Minimal Wear) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-garden-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,250 | $364 520 coins | 1.0% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [AUG \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $334 477 coins | 1.1% | 1 | 0.9 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 667 | $316 452 coins | 1.6% | 3 | 1.4 | 2.15× | | [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Ocean Foam (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-ocean-foam-minimal-wear) | 1 in 435 | $223 318 coins | 1.7% | 4 | 2.1 | 1.87× | | [Souvenir MP9 \| Hot Rod (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mp9-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 345 | $175 250 coins | 1.7% | 5 | 2.7 | 1.85× | | [UMP-45 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 286 | $172 245 coins | 2.0% | 2 | 3.3 | 0.61× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 204 | $134 192 coins | 2.2% | 2 | 4.6 | 0.44× | | [M4A4 \| Hellish (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellish-factory-new) | 1 in 143 | $126 180 coins | 3.0% | 6 | 6.5 | 0.92× | | [M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-well-worn) | 1 in 104 | $89.60 128 coins | 2.9% | 10 | 8.9 | 1.12× | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-wildfire-field-tested) | 1 in 79 | $86.80 124 coins | 3.8% | 12 | 11.8 | 1.01× | | [Souvenir P90 \| Teardown (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p90-teardown-well-worn) | 1 in 51 | $69.24 98.91 coins | 4.7% | 24 | 18.4 | 1.31× | | [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Serum (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-serum-minimal-wear) | 1 in 19 | $60.84 86.91 coins | 11.2% | 69 | 50.3 | 1.37× | | [Souvenir MP9 \| Setting Sun (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mp9-setting-sun-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $54.15 77.36 coins | 14.5% | 53 | 73.3 | 0.72× | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Rezan the Red (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-rezan-the-red-well-worn) | 1 in 10 | $52.95 75.64 coins | 18.0% | 101 | 92.8 | 1.09× | | [Desert Eagle \| Starcade (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-starcade-field-tested) | 12.0% | $30.62 43.74 coins | 12.5% | 115 | 111.8 | 1.03× | | [MP9 \| Mount Fuji (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-mount-fuji-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $7.93 11.33 coins | 4.1% | 123 | 139.8 | 0.88× | | [Souvenir MP9 \| Setting Sun (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mp9-setting-sun-battle-scarred) | 18.0% | $7.48 10.68 coins | 4.6% | 156 | 167.8 | 0.93× | | [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Vogue (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-vogue-field-tested) | 25.0% | $5.27 7.53 coins | 4.5% | 246 | 233.0 | 1.06× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=dawn) [StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Vogue (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-vogue-field-tested) Hidden $32.25 46.07 coins $5.27 7.53 coins 0.16x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC [StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Vogue (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-vogue-field-tested) Hidden $32.25 46.07 coins $5.27 7.53 coins 0.16x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC [StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Vogue (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-vogue-field-tested) Hidden $32.25 46.07 coins $5.27 7.53 coins 0.16x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC [StatTrak™ AWP | Wildfire (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-wildfire-field-tested) Hidden $32.25 46.07 coins $86.80 124 coins 2.69x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC [MP9 | Mount Fuji (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-mount-fuji-minimal-wear) Hidden $32.25 46.07 coins $7.93 11.33 coins 0.25x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC [Souvenir MP9 | Setting Sun (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mp9-setting-sun-battle-scarred) [Jarza](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Jarza) $32.25 46.07 coins $7.48 10.68 coins 0.23x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC [StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Vogue (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-vogue-field-tested) Hidden $32.25 46.07 coins $5.27 7.53 coins 0.16x 2026-11-11 13:35 UTC [Souvenir MP9 | Setting Sun (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mp9-setting-sun-battle-scarred) Hidden $32.25 46.07 coins $7.48 10.68 coins 0.23x 2026-11-11 13:35 UTC [Souvenir MP9 | Setting Sun (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mp9-setting-sun-battle-scarred) Hidden $32.25 46.07 coins $7.48 10.68 coins 0.23x 2026-11-11 13:35 UTC [MP9 | Mount Fuji (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-mount-fuji-minimal-wear) Hidden $32.25 46.07 coins $7.93 11.33 coins 0.25x 2026-11-11 13:35 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $32.25 | 90.91% | 26 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $33.17 | 90.90% | 26 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $33.32 | 90.90% | 26 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed legendary 0.1% contraband 0.0% epic 0.0% gold 0.1% restricted 15.0% mil spec 28.2% covert 1.9% classified 31.9% rare 12.7% extraordinary 10.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt