--- title: "Daydream case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Daydream ($9.32) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.93% from 17 items with odds, observed 88.76% over 38.2K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/daydream rendered: 2026-11-11T15:18Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Daydream](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/daydream) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Daydream A case on CSGORoll (5%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/daydream?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/daydream?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/daydream) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/daydream?window=all) Price · $9.32 · 13.31 coins Advertised RTP · 90.93% · EV $8.47 from 17 items Observed RTP, 30d · 88.76% · 38.2K openings, odds method Variance · 27.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 69 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 95.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 89.61% ±15.78 4,219 openings 7 days · 89.35% ±5.77 31.7K openings 30 days · 88.76% ±5.25 38.2K openings since tracking started · 88.76% ±5.25 38.2K openings 73.0% 89.5% 106.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/daydream?window=24h) | 4,219 | 89.61% ±15.8 | −0.2σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/daydream?window=7d) | 31.7K | 89.35% ±5.77 | −0.5σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/daydream) | 38.2K | 88.76% ±5.25 | −0.8σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/daydream?window=all) | 38.2K | 88.76% ±5.25 | −0.8σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 38.2K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 2,000 | $679 970 coins | 4.0% | 16 | 19.1 | 0.84× | | [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $557 795 coins | 6.6% | 32 | 38.2 | 0.84× | | [★ Talon Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 667 | $501 716 coins | 8.9% | 50 | 57.3 | 0.87× | | [Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 弐 (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sunset-storm-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333 | $404 577 coins | 14.3% | 114 | 114.7 | 0.99× | | [★ Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $300 429 coins | 7.1% | 69 | 76.5 | 0.90× | | [★ Bayonet \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-autotronic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 400 | $291 416 coins | 8.6% | 101 | 95.6 | 1.06× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 250 | $224 320 coins | 10.6% | 139 | 152.9 | 0.91× | | [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 222 | $209 298 coins | 11.1% | 188 | 172.0 | 1.09× | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 286 | $184 263 coins | 7.6% | 126 | 133.8 | 0.94× | | [AK-47 \| The Empress (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-well-worn) | 1 in 167 | $96.60 138 coins | 6.8% | 235 | 229.4 | 1.02× | | [Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $84.00 120 coins | 5.0% | 214 | 191.1 | 1.12× | | [AWP \| Wildfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 182 | $61.54 87.92 coins | 4.0% | 236 | 210.3 | 1.12× | | [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-factory-new) | 1 in 250 | $48.87 69.82 coins | 2.3% | 154 | 152.9 | 1.01× | | [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 143 | $36.79 52.56 coins | 3.0% | 272 | 267.6 | 1.02× | | [P250 \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 35.0% | $0.02 0.03 coins | 0.1% | 13,316 | 13380.1 | 1.00× | | [PP-Bizon \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 30.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.0% | 11,427 | 11468.7 | 1.00× | | [MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 30.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 11,540 | 11468.7 | 1.01× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $9.32 13.31 coins $679 970 coins 72.88x 2026-11-11 04:28 UTC [★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $9.32 13.31 coins $679 970 coins 72.88x 2026-11-11 02:18 UTC [★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [Lolmanadam](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Lolmanadam) $9.32 13.31 coins $679 970 coins 72.88x 2026-11-10 20:37 UTC [★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $9.32 13.31 coins $679 970 coins 72.88x 2026-11-09 13:46 UTC [★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [Larre](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Larre) $9.32 13.31 coins $679 970 coins 72.88x 2026-11-09 12:44 UTC [★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [sbears](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/sbears) $9.32 13.31 coins $679 970 coins 72.88x 2026-11-09 12:22 UTC [★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $9.32 13.31 coins $679 970 coins 72.88x 2026-11-09 10:35 UTC [★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [Yetskidoo](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Yetskidoo) $9.32 13.31 coins $679 970 coins 72.88x 2026-11-09 07:04 UTC [★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $9.44 13.49 coins $664 949 coins 70.35x 2026-11-08 07:57 UTC [★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $9.44 13.49 coins $664 949 coins 70.35x 2026-11-07 19:42 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=daydream) [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $9.32 13.31 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 15:11 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $9.32 13.31 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 15:11 UTC [P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-boreal-forest-field-tested) Hidden $9.32 13.31 coins $0.02 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 15:11 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) [Majky](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Majky) $9.32 13.31 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 15:11 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $9.32 13.31 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 15:06 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $9.32 13.31 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 15:06 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $9.32 13.31 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 15:06 UTC [P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-boreal-forest-field-tested) Hidden $9.32 13.31 coins $0.02 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 15:06 UTC [P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-boreal-forest-field-tested) Hidden $9.32 13.31 coins $0.02 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 15:06 UTC [AK-47 | Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-battle-scarred) [Edvino](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Edvino) $9.32 13.31 coins $36.79 52.56 coins 3.95x 2026-11-11 15:06 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 9 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $9.32 | 90.93% | 17 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $9.32 | 90.90% | 17 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $9.30 | 90.91% | 17 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $9.44 | 90.90% | 17 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 3.8% restricted 0.3% classified 0.9% consumer 95.0% best hit $679 (72.88x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.93 on average: an expected loss of $9.07 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt