--- title: "Deadshot case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Deadshot ($17.21) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.89% from 23 items with odds, observed 82.77% over 16.3K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/deadshot rendered: 2026-11-11T13:48Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Deadshot](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/deadshot) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Deadshot A case on CSGORoll (5%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/deadshot?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/deadshot?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/deadshot) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/deadshot?window=all) Price · $17.21 · 24.59 coins Advertised RTP · 90.89% · EV $15.65 from 23 items Observed RTP, 30d · 82.77% · 16.3K openings, odds method Variance · 48.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 135 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 95.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 74.39% ±33.66 1,641 openings 7 days · 81.23% ±11.55 13.9K openings 30 days · 82.77% ±10.64 16.3K openings since tracking started · 82.77% ±10.64 16.3K openings 40.0% 74.3% 108.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/deadshot?window=24h) | 1,641 | 74.39% ±33.7 | −1.0σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/deadshot?window=7d) | 13.9K | 81.23% ±11.6 | −1.6σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/deadshot) | 16.3K | 82.77% ±10.6 | −1.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/deadshot?window=all) | 16.3K | 82.77% ±10.6 | −1.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 23 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 16.4K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Sticker \| Virtus.Pro (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 3,333 | $4,305 6,150 coins | 8.3% | 3 | 4.9 | 0.61× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,988 2,840 coins | 1.3% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Tiger Strike (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-tiger-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,432 2,045 coins | 9.1% | 14 | 16.4 | 0.85× | | [Glock-18 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,165 1,664 coins | 7.4% | 16 | 16.4 | 0.98× | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Emerald Web (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,100 1,572 coins | 3.5% | 5 | 8.2 | 0.61× | | [M4A4 \| Poseidon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 667 | $1,002 1,432 coins | 9.6% | 27 | 24.6 | 1.10× | | [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $888 1,269 coins | 5.7% | 17 | 16.4 | 1.04× | | [Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $563 804 coins | 7.2% | 23 | 32.8 | 0.70× | | [M4A1-S \| Icarus Fell (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-icarus-fell-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $377 539 coins | 4.8% | 25 | 32.8 | 0.76× | | [AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $377 539 coins | 7.2% | 56 | 49.2 | 1.14× | | [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333 | $277 395 coins | 5.3% | 51 | 49.2 | 1.04× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Vulcan (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-vulcan-well-worn) | 1 in 286 | $273 390 coins | 6.1% | 60 | 57.4 | 1.05× | | [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Yellow-banded (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-yellow-banded-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $246 352 coins | 3.9% | 37 | 41.0 | 0.90× | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 400 | $178 254 coins | 2.8% | 38 | 41.0 | 0.93× | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $128 183 coins | 2.5% | 47 | 49.2 | 0.96× | | [M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $109 155 coins | 3.5% | 82 | 82.0 | 1.00× | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Marble Fade (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-marble-fade-well-worn) | 1 in 250 | $107 153 coins | 2.7% | 68 | 65.6 | 1.04× | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-crimson-web-battle-scarred) | 1 in 200 | $96.60 138 coins | 3.1% | 79 | 82.0 | 0.96× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 250 | $86.80 124 coins | 2.2% | 70 | 65.6 | 1.07× | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Night (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-night-well-worn) | 1 in 196 | $72.80 104 coins | 2.4% | 81 | 83.6 | 0.97× | | [R8 Revolver \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crimson-web-field-tested) | 30.0% | $0.34 0.48 coins | 0.6% | 4,922 | 4917.0 | 1.00× | | [P90 \| Grim (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-grim-field-tested) | 30.0% | $0.27 0.38 coins | 0.5% | 4,871 | 4917.0 | 0.99× | | [UMP-45 \| Gunsmoke (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-gunsmoke-field-tested) | 35.0% | $0.06 0.09 coins | 0.1% | 5,798 | 5736.5 | 1.01× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Sticker | Virtus.Pro (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $17.21 24.59 coins $4,305 6,150 coins 250.1x 2026-11-09 15:15 UTC [Sticker | Virtus.Pro (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $17.37 24.81 coins $4,305 6,150 coins 247.9x 2026-11-05 20:33 UTC [Sticker | Virtus.Pro (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $17.37 24.81 coins $4,305 6,150 coins 247.9x 2026-11-03 19:06 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Tiger Strike (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-tiger-strike-factory-new) [Kickerrrrrrrr](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Kickerrrrrrrr) $17.21 24.59 coins $1,432 2,045 coins 83.16x 2026-11-11 09:10 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Tiger Strike (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-tiger-strike-factory-new) Hidden $17.21 24.59 coins $1,432 2,045 coins 83.16x 2026-11-10 14:57 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Tiger Strike (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-tiger-strike-factory-new) [Have you seen my cat?](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Have%20you%20seen%20my%20cat%3F) $17.21 24.59 coins $1,432 2,045 coins 83.16x 2026-11-10 07:01 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Tiger Strike (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-tiger-strike-factory-new) Hidden $17.21 24.59 coins $1,432 2,045 coins 83.16x 2026-11-09 20:31 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Tiger Strike (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-tiger-strike-factory-new) Hidden $17.21 24.59 coins $1,432 2,045 coins 83.16x 2026-11-09 20:08 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Tiger Strike (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-tiger-strike-factory-new) Hidden $17.21 24.59 coins $1,432 2,045 coins 83.16x 2026-11-09 15:38 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Tiger Strike (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-tiger-strike-factory-new) Hidden $17.21 24.59 coins $1,432 2,045 coins 83.16x 2026-11-09 13:09 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=deadshot) [UMP-45 | Gunsmoke (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-gunsmoke-field-tested) Hidden $17.21 24.59 coins $0.06 0.09 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:34 UTC [UMP-45 | Gunsmoke (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-gunsmoke-field-tested) Hidden $17.21 24.59 coins $0.06 0.09 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:34 UTC [P90 | Grim (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-grim-field-tested) Hidden $17.21 24.59 coins $0.27 0.38 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:34 UTC [UMP-45 | Gunsmoke (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-gunsmoke-field-tested) Hidden $17.21 24.59 coins $0.06 0.09 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:34 UTC [UMP-45 | Gunsmoke (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-gunsmoke-field-tested) [Bismillah Alrahim Alraham](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Bismillah%20Alrahim%20Alraham) $17.21 24.59 coins $0.06 0.09 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:34 UTC [P90 | Grim (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-grim-field-tested) Hidden $17.21 24.59 coins $0.27 0.38 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:34 UTC [UMP-45 | Gunsmoke (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-gunsmoke-field-tested) Hidden $17.21 24.59 coins $0.06 0.09 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC [UMP-45 | Gunsmoke (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-gunsmoke-field-tested) Hidden $17.21 24.59 coins $0.06 0.09 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC [UMP-45 | Gunsmoke (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-gunsmoke-field-tested) Hidden $17.21 24.59 coins $0.06 0.09 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC [P90 | Grim (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-grim-field-tested) [Jake](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Jake) $17.21 24.59 coins $0.27 0.38 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $17.21 | 90.89% | 23 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $17.21 | 90.91% | 23 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $17.23 | 90.90% | 23 | | 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $17.37 | 90.89% | 23 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $17.37 | 90.91% | 23 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed legendary 0.3% covert 2.7% extraordinary 0.5% restricted 0.3% classified 1.0% rare 0.2% mil spec 60.0% industrial 35.0% best hit $4,305 (250.1x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.89 on average: an expected loss of $9.11 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt