--- title: "Deathwish case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Deathwish ($698.15) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 10 items with odds, observed 69.33% over 169 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/deathwish rendered: 2026-11-11T13:30Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Deathwish](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/deathwish) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Deathwish A case on CSGORoll (10%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/deathwish?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/deathwish?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/deathwish) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/deathwish?window=all) Price · $698.15 · 997 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $634.68 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 69.33% · 169 openings, odds method Variance · 2.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 100.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 17 openings · below min 7 days · 68.02% ±26.77 150 openings 30 days · 69.33% ±25.24 169 openings since tracking started · 69.33% ±25.24 169 openings -0.5% 71.5% 143.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/deathwish?window=24h) | 17 | 64.51% ±78.3 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/deathwish?window=7d) | 150 | 68.02% ±26.8 | −1.7σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/deathwish) | 169 | 69.33% ±25.2 | −1.7σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/deathwish?window=all) | 169 | 69.33% ±25.2 | −1.7σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 169 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Sticker \| Vox Eminor (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-vox-eminor-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 10,000 | $17.6K 25,125 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-factory-new) | 1 in 345 | $13.5K 19,275 coins | 6.2% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 667 | $10.6K 15,130 coins | 2.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) | 1 in 200 | $6,790 9,700 coins | 5.3% | 0 | 0.8 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-emerald) | 1 in 2,000 | $6,241 8,915 coins | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [M4A4 \| Howl (Field-Tested) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $4,365 6,235 coins | 13.8% | 1 | 3.4 | 0.30× | | [Sticker \| Titan \| Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-katowice-2014) | 1 in 100 | $3,136 4,480 coins | 4.9% | 2 | 1.7 | 1.18× | | [AWP \| The Prince (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $1,809 2,585 coins | 8.6% | 7 | 5.1 | 1.38× | | [Souvenir AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-gold-arabesque-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $1,301 1,859 coins | 6.2% | 1 | 5.1 | 0.20× | | [ESL One Katowice 2015 Challengers (Holo-Foil) other · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/esl-one-katowice-2015-challengers-holo-foil) | 90.0% | $365 522 coins | 51.8% | 158 | 152.1 | 1.04× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [M4A4 | Howl (Field-Tested) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-field-tested) [Valentin](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Valentin) $698 997 coins $4,365 6,235 coins 6.25x 2026-11-09 13:14 UTC [Sticker | Titan | Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-katowice-2014) Hidden $708 1,011 coins $3,143 4,490 coins 4.44x 2026-11-04 18:51 UTC [Sticker | Titan | Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-katowice-2014) Hidden $708 1,011 coins $3,143 4,490 coins 4.44x 2026-11-03 00:32 UTC [AWP | The Prince (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-minimal-wear) [Kaychydog](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Kaychydog) $708 1,011 coins $1,865 2,665 coins 2.64x 2026-11-08 04:25 UTC [AWP | The Prince (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-minimal-wear) [kirby](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/kirby) $708 1,011 coins $1,865 2,665 coins 2.64x 2026-11-07 03:53 UTC [AWP | The Prince (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-minimal-wear) Hidden $708 1,011 coins $1,865 2,665 coins 2.64x 2026-11-05 19:12 UTC [AWP | The Prince (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-minimal-wear) Hidden $698 997 coins $1,809 2,585 coins 2.59x 2026-11-11 09:39 UTC [AWP | The Prince (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-minimal-wear) Hidden $698 997 coins $1,809 2,585 coins 2.59x 2026-11-09 20:15 UTC [AWP | The Prince (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-minimal-wear) [I AM THE PIRATE KING](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/I%20AM%20THE%20PIRATE%20KING) $698 997 coins $1,809 2,585 coins 2.59x 2026-11-09 12:55 UTC [AWP | The Prince (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-minimal-wear) Hidden $698 997 coins $1,809 2,585 coins 2.59x 2026-11-09 12:55 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=deathwish) [ESL One Katowice 2015 Challengers (Holo-Foil) other · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/esl-one-katowice-2015-challengers-holo-foil) Hidden $698 997 coins $365 522 coins 0.52x 2026-11-11 11:00 UTC [AWP | The Prince (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-minimal-wear) Hidden $698 997 coins $1,809 2,585 coins 2.59x 2026-11-11 09:39 UTC [ESL One Katowice 2015 Challengers (Holo-Foil) other · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/esl-one-katowice-2015-challengers-holo-foil) [Aimbot](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Aimbot) $698 997 coins $365 522 coins 0.52x 2026-11-11 03:59 UTC [ESL One Katowice 2015 Challengers (Holo-Foil) other · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/esl-one-katowice-2015-challengers-holo-foil) Hidden $698 997 coins $365 522 coins 0.52x 2026-11-11 01:01 UTC [ESL One Katowice 2015 Challengers (Holo-Foil) other · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/esl-one-katowice-2015-challengers-holo-foil) [Eatshot Machine](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Eatshot%20Machine) $698 997 coins $365 522 coins 0.52x 2026-11-10 23:40 UTC [ESL One Katowice 2015 Challengers (Holo-Foil) other · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/esl-one-katowice-2015-challengers-holo-foil) Hidden $698 997 coins $365 522 coins 0.52x 2026-11-10 21:26 UTC [ESL One Katowice 2015 Challengers (Holo-Foil) other · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/esl-one-katowice-2015-challengers-holo-foil) [🔸Regular🔸](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/%F0%9F%94%B8Regular%F0%9F%94%B8) $698 997 coins $365 522 coins 0.52x 2026-11-10 21:24 UTC [ESL One Katowice 2015 Challengers (Holo-Foil) other · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/esl-one-katowice-2015-challengers-holo-foil) [ᗪᗩᑎY G](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/%E1%97%AA%E1%97%A9%E1%91%8EY%20G) $698 997 coins $365 522 coins 0.52x 2026-11-10 19:39 UTC [ESL One Katowice 2015 Challengers (Holo-Foil) other · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/esl-one-katowice-2015-challengers-holo-foil) Hidden $698 997 coins $365 522 coins 0.52x 2026-11-10 19:09 UTC [ESL One Katowice 2015 Challengers (Holo-Foil) other · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/esl-one-katowice-2015-challengers-holo-foil) [The AsA ShoW](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/The%20AsA%20ShoW) $698 997 coins $365 522 coins 0.52x 2026-11-10 19:05 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $698 | 90.91% | 10 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $708 | 90.91% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed legendary 0.3% covert 6.7% contraband 2.0% high 1.0% base 90.0% best hit $4,365 (6.25x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt