--- title: "Defect case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Defect ($0.37) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 91.57% from 14 items with odds, observed 1.86% over 27.1K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/defect rendered: 2026-11-11T13:17Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Defect](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/defect) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Defect A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/defect?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/defect?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/defect) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/defect?window=all) Price · $0.37 · 0.53 coins Advertised RTP · 91.57% · EV $0.34 from 14 items Observed RTP, 30d · 1.86% · 27.1K openings, odds method Variance · 106410.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 250,000 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 100.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 4,392 openings · below min 7 days · 22,971 openings · below min 30 days · 27,078 openings · below min since tracking started · 27,078 openings · below min -0.5% 483.5% 967.5% **Small sample.** 27,078 openings and 0.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/defect?window=24h) | 4,392 | 1.89% ±964.7 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/defect?window=7d) | 23K | 1.87% ±417.5 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/defect) | 27.1K | 1.86% ±384.1 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/defect?window=all) | 27.1K | 1.86% ±384.1 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 27.1K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Factory New) 4x Reason (Holo) (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-factory-new-4x-reason-holo-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $98K 140,000 coins | 28.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Sticker \| Reason Gaming (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-reason-gaming-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $38K 54,245 coins | 11.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $30.1K 42,950 coins | 8.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $27.5K 39,250 coins | 8.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| Redline (Minimal Wear) 4x IBP (Holo) (Minimal Wear) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-minimal-wear-4x-ibp-holo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500,000 | $26.3K 37,500 coins | 15.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 500,000 | $10.6K 15,130 coins | 6.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 500,000 | $6,808 9,725 coins | 4.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 500,000 | $6,657 9,510 coins | 3.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 333,333 | $5,548 7,925 coins | 4.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Sticker \| LGB eSports (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lgb-esports-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 333,333 | $4,088 5,840 coins | 3.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-factory-new) | 1 in 333,333 | $1,655 2,364 coins | 1.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 333,333 | $1,576 2,251 coins | 1.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-battle-scarred) | 50.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 1.0% | 13,659 | 13563.3 | 1.01× | | [MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 50.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 1.0% | 13,469 | 13564.0 | 0.99× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=defect) [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $0.37 0.53 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:01 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-battle-scarred) Hidden $0.37 0.53 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:01 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-battle-scarred) Hidden $0.37 0.53 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:01 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) [rxtzyy](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/rxtzyy) $0.37 0.53 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:01 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-battle-scarred) Hidden $0.37 0.53 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:01 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-battle-scarred) Hidden $0.37 0.53 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:01 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) [crYptfl0w](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/crYptfl0w) $0.37 0.53 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:01 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $0.37 0.53 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:01 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-battle-scarred) Hidden $0.37 0.53 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:01 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $0.37 0.53 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 12:57 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $0.37 | 91.57% | 14 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.38 | 90.24% | 14 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed legendary 0.0% remarkable 0.0% extraordinary 0.0% covert 0.0% consumer 100.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 91.6% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $91.57 on average: an expected loss of $8.43 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt