--- title: "Defense case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Defense ($37.28) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.90% from 10 items with odds, observed 108.73% over 94 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/defense rendered: 2026-11-11T14:02Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Defense](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/defense) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Defense A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/defense?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/defense?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/defense) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/defense?window=all) Price · $37.28 · 53.26 coins Advertised RTP · 90.90% · EV $33.89 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 108.73% · 94 openings, odds method Variance · 0.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 38.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 62.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 4 openings · below min 7 days · 54 openings · below min 30 days · 94 openings · below min since tracking started · 94 openings · below min 30.5% 119.0% 207.5% **Small sample.** 94 openings and 35.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/defense?window=24h) | 4 | 119.12% ±87.9 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/defense?window=7d) | 54 | 104.76% ±23.0 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/defense) | 94 | 108.73% ±17.4 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/defense?window=all) | 94 | 108.73% ±17.4 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 94 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Dual Berettas \| Duelist (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-duelist-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $244 348 coins | 14.4% | 4 | 1.9 | 2.13× | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-autotronic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333 | $103 147 coins | 0.9% | 1 | 0.3 | — | | [AWP \| BOOM (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-boom-minimal-wear) | 1 in 143 | $94.50 135 coins | 2.0% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [Galil AR \| CAUTION! (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-caution-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $52.35 74.78 coins | 15.4% | 15 | 9.4 | 1.60× | | [FAMAS \| Sundown (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-sundown-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $46.78 66.83 coins | 6.9% | 4 | 4.7 | 0.85× | | [SSG 08 \| Tropical Storm (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-tropical-storm-factory-new) | 20.0% | $38.12 54.45 coins | 22.5% | 19 | 18.8 | 1.01× | | [AWP \| Electric Hive (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-electric-hive-minimal-wear) | 20.0% | $27.74 39.63 coins | 16.4% | 18 | 18.8 | 0.96× | | [M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $26.17 37.38 coins | 7.7% | 12 | 9.4 | 1.28× | | [SCAR-20 \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-cyrex-minimal-wear) | 12.0% | $24.75 35.36 coins | 8.8% | 6 | 11.3 | 0.53× | | [AUG \| Bengal Tiger (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-bengal-tiger-well-worn) | 20.0% | $8.58 12.26 coins | 5.1% | 15 | 18.8 | 0.80× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=defense) [Galil AR | CAUTION! (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-caution-minimal-wear) Hidden $37.28 53.26 coins $52.35 74.78 coins 1.40x 2026-11-11 11:50 UTC [FAMAS | Sundown (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-sundown-well-worn) Hidden $37.28 53.26 coins $46.78 66.83 coins 1.25x 2026-11-11 11:50 UTC [M4A4 | Cyber Security (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-minimal-wear) Hidden $37.28 53.26 coins $26.17 37.38 coins 0.70x 2026-11-11 11:50 UTC [Galil AR | CAUTION! (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-caution-minimal-wear) [Miltsukkaaaw :3](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Miltsukkaaaw%20%3A3) $37.28 53.26 coins $52.35 74.78 coins 1.40x 2026-11-11 11:50 UTC [M4A4 | Cyber Security (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-minimal-wear) Hidden $37.28 53.26 coins $26.17 37.38 coins 0.70x 2026-11-10 13:50 UTC [SSG 08 | Tropical Storm (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-tropical-storm-factory-new) Hidden $37.28 53.26 coins $38.12 54.45 coins 1.02x 2026-11-10 13:50 UTC [AUG | Bengal Tiger (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-bengal-tiger-well-worn) Hidden $37.28 53.26 coins $8.58 12.26 coins 0.23x 2026-11-10 13:50 UTC [SSG 08 | Tropical Storm (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-tropical-storm-factory-new) Hidden $37.28 53.26 coins $38.12 54.45 coins 1.02x 2026-11-10 13:50 UTC [Dual Berettas | Duelist (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-duelist-well-worn) Hidden $37.28 53.26 coins $244 348 coins 6.53x 2026-11-10 13:50 UTC [M4A4 | Cyber Security (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-minimal-wear) [AWP GOD](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/AWP%20GOD) $37.28 53.26 coins $26.17 37.38 coins 0.70x 2026-11-10 13:50 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $37.28 | 90.90% | 10 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $39.81 | 90.91% | 10 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $39.85 | 90.90% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed restricted 12.0% covert 0.3% classified 62.7% mil spec 5.0% industrial 20.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.90 on average: an expected loss of $9.10 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt