--- title: "Defqon case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Defqon ($47.99) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.90% from 16 items with odds, observed 93.51% over 673 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/defqon rendered: 2026-11-11T22:03Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Defqon](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/defqon) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Defqon A case on CSGORoll (20%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/defqon?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/defqon?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/defqon) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/defqon?window=all) Price · $47.99 · 68.56 coins Advertised RTP · 90.90% · EV $43.63 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 93.51% · 673 openings, odds method Variance · 3.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 12 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 81.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 92.54% ±34.10 112 openings 7 days · 92.69% ±15.35 537 openings 30 days · 93.51% ±13.65 673 openings since tracking started · 93.51% ±13.65 673 openings 58.0% 92.8% 127.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/defqon?window=24h) | 112 | 92.54% ±34.1 | +0.1σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/defqon?window=7d) | 537 | 92.69% ±15.4 | +0.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/defqon) | 673 | 93.51% ±13.6 | +0.4σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/defqon?window=all) | 673 | 93.51% ±13.6 | +0.4σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 673 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-kill-confirmed-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $697 996 coins | 16.0% | 10 | 6.7 | 1.49× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-1) | 1 in 100 | $279 398 coins | 6.4% | 6 | 6.7 | 0.89× | | [MP9 \| Bulldozer (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-bulldozer-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $262 374 coins | 6.0% | 6 | 6.7 | 0.89× | | [USP-S \| Target Acquired (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-target-acquired-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $236 337 coins | 5.4% | 6 | 6.7 | 0.89× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Amphibious (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-amphibious-well-worn) | 1 in 200 | $225 321 coins | 2.6% | 2 | 3.4 | 0.59× | | [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Fade (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $206 294 coins | 4.7% | 7 | 6.7 | 1.04× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| The Empress (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-the-empress-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $156 223 coins | 10.7% | 17 | 20.2 | 0.84× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 100 | $146 208 coins | 3.3% | 9 | 6.7 | 1.34× | | [MP5-SD \| Oxide Oasis (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-oxide-oasis-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $131 187 coins | 3.0% | 4 | 6.7 | 0.59× | | [★ Bloodhound Gloves \| Charred (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/bloodhound-gloves-charred-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $128 183 coins | 8.8% | 20 | 20.2 | 0.99× | | [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $122 175 coins | 2.8% | 4 | 6.7 | 0.59× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-1) | 1 in 100 | $115 165 coins | 2.6% | 8 | 6.7 | 1.19× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $74.90 107 coins | 1.7% | 4 | 6.7 | 0.59× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Bronze Morph (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-bronze-morph-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $66.68 95.26 coins | 3.1% | 19 | 13.5 | 1.41× | | [M4A4 \| Dark Blossom (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dark-blossom-minimal-wear) | 80.0% | $12.26 17.52 coins | 22.5% | 542 | 538.4 | 1.01× | | [Souvenir Tec-9 \| Groundwater (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-tec-9-groundwater-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $9.69 13.84 coins | 0.3% | 9 | 10.1 | 0.89× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 20:32 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [StatTrak™ USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-kill-confirmed-factory-new) Hidden $47.99 68.56 coins $697 996 coins 14.53x 2026-11-11 15:41 UTC [StatTrak™ USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-kill-confirmed-factory-new) Hidden $47.99 68.56 coins $697 996 coins 14.53x 2026-11-10 16:18 UTC [StatTrak™ USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-kill-confirmed-factory-new) Hidden $47.99 68.56 coins $697 996 coins 14.53x 2026-11-09 18:16 UTC [StatTrak™ USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-kill-confirmed-factory-new) Hidden $47.99 68.56 coins $697 996 coins 14.53x 2026-11-09 17:07 UTC [StatTrak™ USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-kill-confirmed-factory-new) Hidden $47.99 68.56 coins $697 996 coins 14.53x 2026-11-09 01:53 UTC [StatTrak™ USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-kill-confirmed-factory-new) Hidden $48.15 68.79 coins $655 935 coins 13.59x 2026-11-08 04:18 UTC [StatTrak™ USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-kill-confirmed-factory-new) Hidden $48.15 68.79 coins $655 935 coins 13.59x 2026-11-07 16:06 UTC [StatTrak™ USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-kill-confirmed-factory-new) Hidden $48.15 68.79 coins $655 935 coins 13.59x 2026-11-06 07:17 UTC [StatTrak™ USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-kill-confirmed-factory-new) Hidden $48.15 68.79 coins $655 935 coins 13.59x 2026-11-04 12:36 UTC [StatTrak™ USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-kill-confirmed-factory-new) Hidden $48.15 68.79 coins $655 935 coins 13.59x 2026-11-03 04:27 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=defqon) [MP9 | Bulldozer (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-bulldozer-minimal-wear) Hidden $47.99 68.56 coins $262 374 coins 5.46x 2026-11-11 19:33 UTC [M4A4 | Dark Blossom (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dark-blossom-minimal-wear) Hidden $47.99 68.56 coins $12.26 17.52 coins 0.26x 2026-11-11 19:33 UTC [M4A4 | Dark Blossom (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dark-blossom-minimal-wear) Hidden $47.99 68.56 coins $12.26 17.52 coins 0.26x 2026-11-11 19:33 UTC [★ Bloodhound Gloves | Charred (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/bloodhound-gloves-charred-well-worn) Hidden $47.99 68.56 coins $128 183 coins 2.67x 2026-11-11 19:33 UTC [M4A4 | Dark Blossom (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dark-blossom-minimal-wear) Hidden $47.99 68.56 coins $12.26 17.52 coins 0.26x 2026-11-11 19:33 UTC [M4A4 | Dark Blossom (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dark-blossom-minimal-wear) [Shiba inu](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Shiba%20inu) $47.99 68.56 coins $12.26 17.52 coins 0.26x 2026-11-11 19:33 UTC [M4A4 | Dark Blossom (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dark-blossom-minimal-wear) Hidden $47.99 68.56 coins $12.26 17.52 coins 0.26x 2026-11-11 19:28 UTC [M4A4 | Dark Blossom (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dark-blossom-minimal-wear) Hidden $47.99 68.56 coins $12.26 17.52 coins 0.26x 2026-11-11 19:28 UTC [M4A4 | Dark Blossom (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dark-blossom-minimal-wear) Hidden $47.99 68.56 coins $12.26 17.52 coins 0.26x 2026-11-11 19:28 UTC [M4A4 | Dark Blossom (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dark-blossom-minimal-wear) Hidden $47.99 68.56 coins $12.26 17.52 coins 0.26x 2026-11-11 19:28 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $47.99 | 90.90% | 16 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $48.51 | 90.90% | 16 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $48.15 | 90.92% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 10.0% restricted 1.0% classified 2.0% extraordinary 5.5% industrial 80.0% consumer 1.5% best hit $697 (14.53x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.90 on average: an expected loss of $9.10 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt