--- title: "Dense case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Dense ($188.71) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 17 items with odds, observed 77.36% over 97 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/dense rendered: 2026-11-11T18:14Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Dense](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/dense) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Dense A case on CSGORoll (40%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/dense?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/dense?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/dense) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/dense?window=all) Price · $188.71 · 270 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $171.55 from 17 items Observed RTP, 30d · 77.36% · 97 openings, odds method Variance · 2.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 11 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 73.1% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 6 openings · below min 7 days · 79 openings · below min 30 days · 97 openings · below min since tracking started · 97 openings · below min -0.5% 73.8% 148.0% **Small sample.** 97 openings and 8.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/dense?window=24h) | 6 | 21.83% ±125.6 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/dense?window=7d) | 79 | 77.43% ±34.6 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/dense) | 97 | 77.36% ±31.2 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/dense?window=all) | 97 | 77.36% ±31.2 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 97 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Sticker \| DD (Gold) \| Boston 2018 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dd-gold-boston-2018) | 1 in 33 | $1,174 1,677 coins | 20.5% | 2 | 2.9 | 0.69× | | [★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nomad-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 400 | $995 1,422 coins | 1.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-black-pearl) | 1 in 83 | $945 1,350 coins | 6.6% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× | | [★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $814 1,163 coins | 16.6% | 4 | 3.4 | 1.18× | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 125 | $806 1,152 coins | 3.8% | 1 | 0.8 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · legendary · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nomad-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 333 | $662 946 coins | 1.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 222 | $659 942 coins | 1.7% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) StatTrak · knife · legendary · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 167 | $641 916 coins | 2.2% | 1 | 0.6 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-case-hardened-battle-scarred) | 1 in 56 | $603 862 coins | 6.3% | 2 | 1.7 | 1.15× | | [M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $540 772 coins | 12.6% | 2 | 3.9 | 0.52× | | [★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-survival-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) | 1 in 100 | $475 679 coins | 2.8% | 1 | 1.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 19 | $247 353 coins | 7.5% | 6 | 5.0 | 1.19× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Amphibious (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-amphibious-well-worn) | 1 in 21 | $225 321 coins | 6.3% | 5 | 4.7 | 1.07× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-4) | 1 in 15 | $143 204 coins | 5.5% | 6 | 6.4 | 0.94× | | [★ Paracord Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 15 | $130 186 coins | 4.9% | 7 | 6.3 | 1.11× | | [Tec-9 \| Groundwater (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-groundwater-field-tested) | 30.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.0% | 29 | 29.1 | 1.00× | | [PP-Bizon \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 30.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.0% | 31 | 29.1 | 1.07× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Sticker | DD (Gold) | Boston 2018 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dd-gold-boston-2018) Hidden $190 271 coins $1,174 1,677 coins 6.18x 2026-11-08 14:55 UTC [Sticker | DD (Gold) | Boston 2018 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dd-gold-boston-2018) Hidden $190 271 coins $1,174 1,677 coins 6.18x 2026-11-07 17:55 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Ultraviolet (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-ultraviolet-factory-new) [Sloth](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Sloth) $190 271 coins $814 1,163 coins 4.29x 2026-11-07 17:55 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Ultraviolet (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-ultraviolet-factory-new) Hidden $190 271 coins $814 1,163 coins 4.29x 2026-11-06 12:04 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Ultraviolet (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-ultraviolet-factory-new) Hidden $190 271 coins $814 1,163 coins 4.29x 2026-11-06 12:03 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Ultraviolet (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-ultraviolet-factory-new) [hellsten05](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/hellsten05) $190 271 coins $814 1,163 coins 4.29x 2026-11-03 22:22 UTC [★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $189 270 coins $806 1,152 coins 4.27x 2026-11-10 09:39 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) StatTrak · knife · legendary · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $189 270 coins $641 916 coins 3.40x 2026-11-10 09:47 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-case-hardened-battle-scarred) Hidden $190 271 coins $629 899 coins 3.31x 2026-11-08 14:55 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-case-hardened-battle-scarred) Hidden $190 271 coins $629 899 coins 3.31x 2026-11-04 12:37 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=dense) [Tec-9 | Groundwater (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-groundwater-field-tested) Hidden $189 270 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 02:46 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $189 270 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 02:46 UTC [Tec-9 | Groundwater (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-groundwater-field-tested) Hidden $189 270 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 02:46 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) [FaLLouT'z](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/FaLLouT'z) $189 270 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 02:46 UTC [Tec-9 | Groundwater (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-groundwater-field-tested) Hidden $189 270 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 02:45 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) [FaLLouT'z](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/FaLLouT'z) $189 270 coins $247 353 coins 1.31x 2026-11-11 02:45 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $189 270 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 09:47 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $189 270 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 09:47 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) StatTrak · knife · legendary · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $189 270 coins $641 916 coins 3.40x 2026-11-10 09:47 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) [BaCraMo- csgoroll.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/BaCraMo-%20csgoroll.com) $189 270 coins $247 353 coins 1.31x 2026-11-10 09:47 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $189 | 90.91% | 17 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $190 | 90.91% | 17 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 7.8% legendary 5.7% covert 20.0% epic 6.5% consumer 60.0% best hit $1,174 (6.18x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt