--- title: "Desire case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Desire ($1.98) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 91.04% from 10 items with odds, observed 94.86% over 80.8K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/desire rendered: 2026-11-11T13:21Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Desire](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/desire) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Desire A case on CSGORoll (5%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/desire?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/desire?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/desire) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/desire?window=all) Price · $1.98 · 2.83 coins Advertised RTP · 91.04% · EV $1.80 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 94.86% · 80.8K openings, odds method Variance · 26.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 76 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 95.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 95.95% ±9.78 10.5K openings 7 days · 94.82% ±3.83 68.2K openings 30 days · 94.86% ±3.52 80.8K openings since tracking started · 94.86% ±3.52 80.8K openings 85.5% 96.0% 106.5% **Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 91.00% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (91.34% – 98.39%, 80,847 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/desire?window=24h) | 10.5K | 95.95% ±9.78 | +1.0σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/desire?window=7d) | 68.2K | 94.82% ±3.83 | +1.9σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/desire) | 80.8K | 94.86% ±3.52 | +2.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/desire?window=all) | 80.8K | 94.86% ±3.52 | +2.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 81K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Omega (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-omega-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22,222 | $371 530 coins | 0.9% | 5 | 3.6 | 1.37× | | [★ Bayonet \| Autotronic (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-autotronic-well-worn) | 1 in 20,000 | $225 321 coins | 0.6% | 1 | 4.1 | 0.25× | | [M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-royal-paladin-battle-scarred) | 1 in 125 | $74.90 107 coins | 33.2% | 685 | 648.2 | 1.06× | | [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-ocean-drive-well-worn) | 1 in 200 | $65.79 93.98 coins | 18.2% | 454 | 405.1 | 1.12× | | [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-bullet-queen-battle-scarred) | 1 in 133 | $52.26 74.66 coins | 21.7% | 626 | 607.7 | 1.03× | | [P250 \| Nuclear Threat (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nuclear-threat-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $36.81 52.59 coins | 10.2% | 395 | 405.1 | 0.97× | | [Galil AR \| Orange DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-orange-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 167 | $14.59 20.84 coins | 4.9% | 531 | 486.2 | 1.09× | | [Five-SeveN \| Copper Galaxy (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-copper-galaxy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 96 | $10.79 15.42 coins | 6.2% | 788 | 843.1 | 0.93× | | [UMP-45 \| Momentum (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-momentum-factory-new) | 1 in 125 | $8.13 11.61 coins | 3.6% | 651 | 648.2 | 1.00× | | [MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 95.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.4% | 76,891 | 76975.6 | 1.00× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Sport Gloves | Omega (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-omega-minimal-wear) Hidden $2.01 2.87 coins $381 544 coins 189.5x 2026-11-07 16:40 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Omega (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-omega-minimal-wear) Hidden $2.01 2.87 coins $381 544 coins 189.5x 2026-11-06 15:41 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Omega (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-omega-minimal-wear) Hidden $2.01 2.87 coins $381 544 coins 189.5x 2026-11-06 08:47 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Omega (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-omega-minimal-wear) Hidden $2.01 2.87 coins $381 544 coins 189.5x 2026-11-06 08:38 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Omega (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-omega-minimal-wear) Hidden $2.01 2.87 coins $381 544 coins 189.5x 2026-11-05 23:42 UTC [★ Bayonet | Autotronic (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-autotronic-well-worn) Hidden $2.01 2.87 coins $231 330 coins 115.0x 2026-11-07 18:20 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=desire) [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $1.98 2.83 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:20 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $1.98 2.83 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:20 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $1.98 2.83 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:20 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $1.98 2.83 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:20 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $1.98 2.83 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:20 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) [Max1m](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Max1m) $1.98 2.83 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:20 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $1.98 2.83 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:18 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $1.98 2.83 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:18 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $1.98 2.83 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:18 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $1.98 2.83 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:18 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $1.98 | 91.04% | 10 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $2.01 | 90.86% | 10 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $2.01 | 90.89% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 0.0% covert 2.1% Mythical 0.5% restricted 1.6% classified 0.8% consumer 95.0% best hit $381 (189.5x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 91.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $91.04 on average: an expected loss of $8.96 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt