--- title: "Destiny case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Destiny ($222.86) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 11 items with odds, observed 87.37% over 22 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/destiny rendered: 2026-11-11T13:10Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Destiny](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/destiny) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Destiny A case on CSGORoll (40%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/destiny?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/destiny?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/destiny) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/destiny?window=all) Price · $222.86 · 318 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $202.60 from 11 items Observed RTP, 30d · 87.37% · 22 openings, odds method Variance · 1.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 23.5% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 76.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 22 openings · below min 30 days · 22 openings · below min since tracking started · 22 openings · below min 45.0% 87.5% 130.0% **Small sample.** 22 openings and 5.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/destiny?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/destiny?window=7d) | 22 | 87.37% ±41.9 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/destiny) | 22 | 87.37% ±41.9 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/destiny?window=all) | 22 | 87.37% ±41.9 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 22 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [MP9 \| Wild Lily (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $1,844 2,635 coins | 9.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Tiger Strike (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-tiger-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $1,432 2,045 coins | 3.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $642 917 coins | 6.3% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Urban Masked (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-urban-masked-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $431 615 coins | 17.0% | 2 | 1.8 | 1.14× | | [★ Talon Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $383 547 coins | 9.4% | 3 | 1.1 | 2.73× | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 50 | $337 482 coins | 3.3% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) | 1 in 20 | $269 384 coins | 6.6% | 3 | 1.1 | 2.73× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 11.5% | $186 265 coins | 10.5% | 1 | 2.5 | 0.40× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Amphibious (Battle-Scarred) gloves · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-amphibious-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $183 261 coins | 4.5% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× | | [P250 \| Nuclear Threat (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nuclear-threat-minimal-wear) | 20.0% | $123 176 coins | 12.2% | 3 | 4.4 | 0.68× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Cartel (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-cartel-factory-new) | 40.0% | $88.20 126 coins | 17.4% | 10 | 8.8 | 1.14× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=destiny) [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Cartel (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-cartel-factory-new) Hidden $226 322 coins $90.30 129 coins 0.40x 2026-11-07 23:54 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Cartel (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-cartel-factory-new) Hidden $226 322 coins $90.30 129 coins 0.40x 2026-11-07 23:54 UTC [P250 | Nuclear Threat (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nuclear-threat-minimal-wear) Hidden $226 322 coins $125 178 coins 0.55x 2026-11-07 23:54 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) [ignashi](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/ignashi) $226 322 coins $391 558 coins 1.73x 2026-11-07 23:54 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Cartel (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-cartel-factory-new) Hidden $226 322 coins $90.30 129 coins 0.40x 2026-11-05 19:10 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Cartel (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-cartel-factory-new) Hidden $226 322 coins $90.30 129 coins 0.40x 2026-11-05 19:10 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) Hidden $226 322 coins $391 558 coins 1.73x 2026-11-05 19:10 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) Hidden $226 322 coins $281 401 coins 1.24x 2026-11-05 19:10 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) Hidden $226 322 coins $281 401 coins 1.24x 2026-11-05 19:10 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Cartel (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-cartel-factory-new) [🟢Kick: JULSY](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/%F0%9F%9F%A2Kick%3A%20JULSY) $226 322 coins $90.30 129 coins 0.40x 2026-11-05 19:10 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $223 | 90.91% | 11 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $226 | 90.91% | 11 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 41.0% extraordinary 0.5% covert 33.5% rare 5.0% restricted 20.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt