--- title: "Digital Drops case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Digital Drops ($99.85) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 11 items with odds, observed 91.56% over 1,432 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/digital-drops rendered: 2026-11-11T13:24Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Digital Drops](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/digital-drops) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Digital Drops A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/digital-drops?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/digital-drops?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/digital-drops) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/digital-drops?window=all) Price · $99.85 · 143 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $90.77 from 11 items Observed RTP, 30d · 91.56% · 1,432 openings, odds method Variance · 1.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 27.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 61.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 100.35% ±18.33 130 openings 7 days · 93.85% ±6.60 1,001 openings 30 days · 91.56% ±5.51 1,432 openings since tracking started · 91.56% ±5.51 1,432 openings 81.5% 100.5% 119.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/digital-drops?window=24h) | 130 | 100.35% ±18.3 | +1.0σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/digital-drops?window=7d) | 1,001 | 93.85% ±6.60 | +0.9σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/digital-drops) | 1,432 | 91.56% ±5.51 | +0.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/digital-drops?window=all) | 1,432 | 91.56% ±5.51 | +0.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,432 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Karambit \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,600 2,285 coins | 1.8% | 2 | 1.4 | 1.40× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-forest-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $620 886 coins | 2.0% | 5 | 4.3 | 1.16× | | [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-factory-new) | 1 in 42 | $445 636 coins | 11.8% | 34 | 34.4 | 0.99× | | [★ Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $316 452 coins | 0.7% | 3 | 2.9 | 1.05× | | [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-battle-scarred) | 12.0% | $207 296 coins | 27.4% | 171 | 171.8 | 1.00× | | [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-factory-new) | 12.0% | $174 248 coins | 23.0% | 174 | 171.8 | 1.01× | | [M4A4 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-well-worn) | 12.0% | $113 162 coins | 15.0% | 167 | 171.8 | 0.97× | | [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-field-tested) | 15.3% | $41.03 58.61 coins | 6.9% | 223 | 218.4 | 1.02× | | [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-battle-scarred) | 15.3% | $40.21 57.44 coins | 6.8% | 211 | 218.4 | 0.97× | | [Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-factory-new) | 15.3% | $23.30 33.28 coins | 3.9% | 231 | 218.4 | 1.06× | | [Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-battle-scarred) | 15.3% | $4.90 7 coins | 0.8% | 211 | 218.4 | 0.97× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Karambit | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-factory-new) Hidden $99.85 143 coins $1,600 2,285 coins 16.02x 2026-11-10 08:51 UTC [★ Karambit | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-factory-new) Hidden $99.24 142 coins $1,588 2,269 coins 16.00x 2026-11-06 00:43 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Forest DDPAT (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-forest-ddpat-factory-new) Hidden $99.85 143 coins $620 886 coins 6.21x 2026-11-11 13:00 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Forest DDPAT (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-forest-ddpat-factory-new) Hidden $99.85 143 coins $620 886 coins 6.21x 2026-11-11 02:27 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Forest DDPAT (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-forest-ddpat-factory-new) Hidden $99.85 143 coins $620 886 coins 6.21x 2026-11-09 18:55 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Forest DDPAT (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-forest-ddpat-factory-new) Hidden $99.24 142 coins $620 886 coins 6.25x 2026-11-03 12:23 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Forest DDPAT (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-forest-ddpat-factory-new) Hidden $99.24 142 coins $620 886 coins 6.25x 2026-11-02 22:46 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=digital-drops) [Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-battle-scarred) Hidden $99.85 143 coins $4.90 7 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC [Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-battle-scarred) Hidden $99.85 143 coins $4.90 7 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC [M4A4 | Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-well-worn) Hidden $99.85 143 coins $113 162 coins 1.14x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC [AWP | Oni Taiji (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-factory-new) Hidden $99.85 143 coins $445 636 coins 4.46x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC [AK-47 | Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-battle-scarred) Hidden $99.85 143 coins $40.21 57.44 coins 0.40x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC [AK-47 | Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-battle-scarred) [Legend](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Legend) $99.85 143 coins $40.21 57.44 coins 0.40x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC [AK-47 | Neon Rider (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-factory-new) Hidden $99.85 143 coins $174 248 coins 1.74x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC [AWP | Oni Taiji (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-battle-scarred) Hidden $99.85 143 coins $207 296 coins 2.08x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC [M4A4 | Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-well-worn) Hidden $99.85 143 coins $113 162 coins 1.14x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC [M4A4 | Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-well-worn) Hidden $99.85 143 coins $113 162 coins 1.14x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $99.85 | 90.91% | 11 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $99.93 | 90.91% | 11 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $99.24 | 90.91% | 11 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 69.5% classified 30.5% best hit $1,600 (16.02x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt