--- title: "Dirt Cheap case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Dirt Cheap ($0.78) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 91.09% from 7 items with odds, observed 90.85% over 27.4K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/dirt-cheap rendered: 2026-11-11T14:09Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Dirt Cheap](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/dirt-cheap) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Dirt Cheap A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/dirt-cheap?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/dirt-cheap?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/dirt-cheap) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/dirt-cheap?window=all) Price · $0.78 · 1.11 coins Advertised RTP · 91.09% · EV $0.71 from 7 items Observed RTP, 30d · 90.85% · 27.4K openings, odds method Variance · 1.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 25.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 75.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 94.08% ±4.13 2,482 openings 7 days · 90.68% ±1.29 22.9K openings 30 days · 90.85% ±1.18 27.4K openings since tracking started · 90.85% ±1.18 27.4K openings 88.5% 93.8% 99.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/dirt-cheap?window=24h) | 2,482 | 94.08% ±4.13 | +1.6σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/dirt-cheap?window=7d) | 22.9K | 90.68% ±1.29 | −0.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/dirt-cheap) | 27.4K | 90.85% ±1.18 | +0.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/dirt-cheap?window=all) | 27.4K | 90.85% ±1.18 | +0.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 27.4K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-rust-coat-well-worn) | 1 in 10,000 | $60.47 86.39 coins | 0.9% | 3 | 2.7 | 1.09× | | [MP7 \| Neon Ply (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-neon-ply-field-tested) | 15.0% | $1.96 2.8 coins | 41.5% | 4,143 | 4116.6 | 1.01× | | [P90 \| Module (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-module-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $0.95 1.36 coins | 13.5% | 2,738 | 2744.4 | 1.00× | | [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Capillary (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-capillary-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $0.64 0.91 coins | 13.5% | 4,049 | 4116.6 | 0.98× | | [Negev \| Terrain (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-terrain-minimal-wear) | 20.0% | $0.39 0.55 coins | 10.9% | 5,456 | 5486.1 | 0.99× | | [MP7 \| Akoben (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-akoben-minimal-wear) | 20.0% | $0.39 0.55 coins | 10.9% | 5,566 | 5488.8 | 1.01× | | [P2000 \| Turf (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-turf-well-worn) | 20.0% | $0.32 0.45 coins | 8.9% | 5,489 | 5488.8 | 1.00× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Bowie Knife | Rust Coat (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-rust-coat-well-worn) Hidden $0.78 1.12 coins $60.47 86.39 coins 77.13x 2026-11-10 19:49 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Rust Coat (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-rust-coat-well-worn) [JmXD](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/JmXD) $0.79 1.13 coins $54.09 77.27 coins 68.38x 2026-11-04 20:10 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Rust Coat (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-rust-coat-well-worn) Hidden $0.79 1.13 coins $54.09 77.27 coins 68.38x 2026-11-04 06:27 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=dirt-cheap) [Negev | Terrain (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-terrain-minimal-wear) [$Barbieespecedeconnasse$](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/%24Barbieespecedeconnasse%24) $0.78 1.11 coins $0.39 0.55 coins 0.50x 2026-11-11 13:27 UTC [P2000 | Turf (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-turf-well-worn) Hidden $0.78 1.11 coins $0.32 0.45 coins 0.41x 2026-11-11 13:27 UTC [MP7 | Akoben (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-akoben-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.78 1.11 coins $0.39 0.55 coins 0.50x 2026-11-11 13:27 UTC [P2000 | Turf (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-turf-well-worn) [$Barbieespecedeconnasse$](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/%24Barbieespecedeconnasse%24) $0.78 1.11 coins $0.32 0.45 coins 0.41x 2026-11-11 13:27 UTC [P2000 | Turf (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-turf-well-worn) Hidden $0.78 1.11 coins $0.32 0.45 coins 0.41x 2026-11-11 13:27 UTC [MP7 | Akoben (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-akoben-minimal-wear) [$Barbieespecedeconnasse$](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/%24Barbieespecedeconnasse%24) $0.78 1.11 coins $0.39 0.55 coins 0.50x 2026-11-11 13:27 UTC [Negev | Terrain (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-terrain-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.78 1.11 coins $0.39 0.55 coins 0.50x 2026-11-11 13:27 UTC [Negev | Terrain (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-terrain-minimal-wear) [$Barbieespecedeconnasse$](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/%24Barbieespecedeconnasse%24) $0.78 1.11 coins $0.39 0.55 coins 0.50x 2026-11-11 13:27 UTC [MP7 | Neon Ply (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-neon-ply-field-tested) Hidden $0.78 1.11 coins $1.96 2.8 coins 2.52x 2026-11-11 13:27 UTC [Negev | Terrain (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-terrain-minimal-wear) [$Barbieespecedeconnasse$](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/%24Barbieespecedeconnasse%24) $0.78 1.11 coins $0.39 0.55 coins 0.50x 2026-11-11 13:27 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC | $0.78 | 91.09% | 7 | | 10 Nov, 08:16 UTC | $0.78 | 90.54% | 7 | | 9 Nov, 20:11 UTC | $0.78 | 90.72% | 7 | | 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $0.78 | 90.54% | 7 | | 9 Nov, 00:04 UTC | $0.80 | 90.71% | 7 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $0.80 | 90.80% | 7 | | 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $0.79 | 90.99% | 7 | | 5 Nov, 22:45 UTC | $0.80 | 90.85% | 7 | | 5 Nov, 10:39 UTC | $0.80 | 90.67% | 7 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.79 | 90.55% | 7 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.0% restricted 15.0% mil spec 85.0% best hit $60.47 (77.13x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 91.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $91.09 on average: an expected loss of $8.91 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt