--- title: "Disorientation case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Disorientation ($49.36) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 23 items with odds, observed 94.61% over 86 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/disorientation rendered: 2026-11-11T18:47Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Disorientation](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/disorientation) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Disorientation A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/disorientation?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/disorientation?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/disorientation) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/disorientation?window=all) Price · $49.36 · 70.52 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $44.87 from 23 items Observed RTP, 30d · 94.61% · 86 openings, odds method Variance · 0.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 23.3% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 67.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 6 openings · below min 7 days · 71 openings · below min 30 days · 86 openings · below min since tracking started · 86 openings · below min 73.5% 168.5% 263.5% **Small sample.** 86 openings and 20.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/disorientation?window=24h) | 6 | 186.30% ±76.6 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/disorientation?window=7d) | 71 | 96.39% ±22.3 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/disorientation) | 86 | 94.61% ±20.3 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/disorientation?window=all) | 86 | 94.61% ±20.3 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 23 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 86 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Cool Mint (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-cool-mint-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $939 1,341 coins | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Stained (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-stained-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,111 | $334 477 coins | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Talon Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-forest-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $218 311 coins | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 286 | $175 250 coins | 1.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 133 | $174 249 coins | 2.9% | 1 | 0.6 | — | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-neon-rider-minimal-wear) | 1 in 77 | $164 234 coins | 4.7% | 2 | 1.1 | 1.79× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-autotronic-field-tested) | 1 in 625 | $155 221 coins | 0.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 400 | $148 212 coins | 0.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [AWP \| Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-man-o-war-minimal-wear) | 1 in 45 | $111 159 coins | 5.5% | 4 | 1.9 | 2.11× | | [M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $105 150 coins | 18.7% | 9 | 6.9 | 1.31× | | [FAMAS \| Styx (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-styx-factory-new) | 10.0% | $98.00 140 coins | 21.8% | 8 | 8.6 | 0.93× | | [M4A4 \| Radiation Hazard (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-radiation-hazard-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $79.10 113 coins | 4.4% | 1 | 2.1 | 0.47× | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Damascus Steel (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-damascus-steel-well-worn) | 1 in 56 | $77.00 110 coins | 3.1% | 4 | 1.5 | 2.58× | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Lore (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 67 | $69.71 99.59 coins | 2.3% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.78× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-orbit-mk01-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $56.55 80.78 coins | 5.0% | 0 | 3.4 | 0.00× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $42.97 61.38 coins | 2.9% | 0 | 2.6 | 0.00× | | [Souvenir Tec-9 \| Toxic (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-tec-9-toxic-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $39.07 55.82 coins | 4.4% | 4 | 4.3 | 0.93× | | [M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-basilisk-factory-new) | 1 in 15 | $27.62 39.45 coins | 4.0% | 6 | 5.6 | 1.07× | | [G3SG1 \| Violet Murano (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-violet-murano-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $22.16 31.66 coins | 4.7% | 9 | 8.1 | 1.11× | | [MAC-10 \| Graven (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-graven-battle-scarred) | 12.0% | $19.38 27.69 coins | 5.2% | 9 | 10.3 | 0.87× | | [Souvenir Glock-18 \| Candy Apple (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-candy-apple-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $15.30 21.85 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 0.9 | — | | [SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-big-iron-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $13.14 18.77 coins | 4.4% | 10 | 12.9 | 0.78× | | [Glock-18 \| Royal Legion (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-royal-legion-field-tested) | 15.0% | $2.12 3.03 coins | 0.7% | 18 | 12.9 | 1.40× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=disorientation) [AWP | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-man-o-war-minimal-wear) Hidden $49.36 70.52 coins $111 159 coins 2.25x 2026-11-10 22:17 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-neon-rider-minimal-wear) Hidden $49.36 70.52 coins $164 234 coins 3.32x 2026-11-10 22:17 UTC [M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-field-tested) Hidden $49.36 70.52 coins $105 150 coins 2.13x 2026-11-10 22:17 UTC [M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-field-tested) Hidden $49.36 70.52 coins $105 150 coins 2.13x 2026-11-10 22:17 UTC [M4A1-S | Basilisk (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-basilisk-factory-new) Hidden $49.36 70.52 coins $27.62 39.45 coins 0.56x 2026-11-10 22:17 UTC [Souvenir Tec-9 | Toxic (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-tec-9-toxic-factory-new) [oshri412](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/oshri412) $49.36 70.52 coins $39.07 55.82 coins 0.79x 2026-11-10 22:17 UTC [Glock-18 | Royal Legion (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-royal-legion-field-tested) Hidden $49.36 70.52 coins $2.12 3.03 coins 0.04x 2026-11-10 10:37 UTC [MAC-10 | Graven (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-graven-battle-scarred) Hidden $49.36 70.52 coins $19.38 27.69 coins 0.39x 2026-11-10 10:37 UTC [M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-field-tested) Hidden $49.36 70.52 coins $105 150 coins 2.13x 2026-11-10 10:37 UTC [FAMAS | Styx (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-styx-factory-new) Hidden $49.36 70.52 coins $98.00 140 coins 1.99x 2026-11-10 10:37 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $49.36 | 90.91% | 23 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $48.96 | 90.90% | 23 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $48.92 | 90.91% | 23 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 0.1% covert 19.5% restricted 47.5% mil spec 8.5% blue 9.4% classified 15.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt