--- title: "Dispersion case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Dispersion ($10.42) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.94% from 10 items with odds, observed 89.87% over 1,953 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/dispersion rendered: 2026-11-11T15:12Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Dispersion](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/dispersion) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Dispersion A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/dispersion?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/dispersion?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/dispersion) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/dispersion?window=all) Price · $10.42 · 14.88 coins Advertised RTP · 90.94% · EV $9.47 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 89.87% · 1,953 openings, odds method Variance · 2.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 10.5% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 74.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 102.92% ±24.05 195 openings 7 days · 88.81% ±8.43 1,618 openings 30 days · 89.87% ±7.68 1,953 openings since tracking started · 89.87% ±7.68 1,953 openings 78.0% 102.7% 127.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/dispersion?window=24h) | 195 | 102.92% ±24.1 | +1.0σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/dispersion?window=7d) | 1,618 | 88.81% ±8.43 | −0.5σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/dispersion) | 1,953 | 89.87% ±7.68 | −0.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/dispersion?window=all) | 1,953 | 89.87% ±7.68 | −0.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,953 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Flip Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-crimson-web-well-worn) | 1 in 500 | $165 235 coins | 3.5% | 2 | 3.9 | 0.51× | | [MP9 \| Pandora's Box (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-pandoras-box-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $99.40 142 coins | 3.1% | 8 | 5.9 | 1.37× | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-crimson-web-battle-scarred) | 1 in 200 | $96.60 138 coins | 5.1% | 2 | 9.8 | 0.20× | | [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $62.36 89.09 coins | 19.8% | 69 | 58.6 | 1.18× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-safari-mesh-battle-scarred) | 1 in 67 | $45.15 64.5 coins | 7.2% | 30 | 29.3 | 1.02× | | [AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-red-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $45.13 64.47 coins | 23.8% | 94 | 97.7 | 0.96× | | [Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fuel-injector-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $12.24 17.48 coins | 19.4% | 301 | 292.9 | 1.03× | | [Dual Berettas \| Marina (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-marina-minimal-wear) | 19.5% | $5.17 7.38 coins | 10.6% | 397 | 380.8 | 1.04× | | [P250 \| Hive (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-hive-field-tested) | 25.0% | $2.09 2.99 coins | 5.5% | 458 | 488.3 | 0.94× | | [Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-rocket-pop-well-worn) | 30.0% | $0.64 0.91 coins | 2.0% | 592 | 585.9 | 1.01× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=dispersion) [P250 | Hive (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-hive-field-tested) [Ajax absult 100%](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Ajax%20absult%20100%25) $10.42 14.88 coins $2.09 2.99 coins 0.20x 2026-11-11 14:56 UTC [Galil AR | Rocket Pop (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-rocket-pop-well-worn) [DrWein](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/DrWein) $10.42 14.88 coins $0.64 0.91 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 14:56 UTC [Dual Berettas | Marina (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-marina-minimal-wear) Hidden $10.42 14.88 coins $5.17 7.38 coins 0.50x 2026-11-11 14:13 UTC [Galil AR | Rocket Pop (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-rocket-pop-well-worn) Hidden $10.42 14.88 coins $0.64 0.91 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 14:13 UTC [P250 | Hive (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-hive-field-tested) [caravaggio](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/caravaggio) $10.42 14.88 coins $2.09 2.99 coins 0.20x 2026-11-11 14:13 UTC [Tec-9 | Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fuel-injector-minimal-wear) Hidden $10.42 14.88 coins $12.24 17.48 coins 1.17x 2026-11-11 14:13 UTC [Dual Berettas | Marina (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-marina-minimal-wear) Hidden $10.42 14.88 coins $5.17 7.38 coins 0.50x 2026-11-11 12:28 UTC [P250 | Hive (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-hive-field-tested) Hidden $10.42 14.88 coins $2.09 2.99 coins 0.20x 2026-11-11 12:28 UTC [P250 | Hive (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-hive-field-tested) [Rusty Cake](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Rusty%20Cake) $10.42 14.88 coins $2.09 2.99 coins 0.20x 2026-11-11 12:28 UTC [Dual Berettas | Marina (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-marina-minimal-wear) [BRÄTT \<3](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/BR%C3%84TT%20%3C3) $10.42 14.88 coins $5.17 7.38 coins 0.50x 2026-11-11 12:28 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 9 Nov, 20:11 UTC | $10.42 | 90.94% | 10 | | 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $10.39 | 90.89% | 10 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $10.40 | 90.89% | 10 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $10.60 | 90.89% | 10 | | 6 Nov, 22:57 UTC | $10.65 | 90.88% | 10 | | 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $10.63 | 90.88% | 10 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $10.61 | 90.93% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 5.2% mil spec 55.3% classified 20.0% restricted 19.5% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.94 on average: an expected loss of $9.06 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt