---
title: "Distilled case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Distilled ($14.21) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.89% from 19 items with odds, observed 88.29% over 1,555 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/distilled
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:11Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Distilled](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/distilled)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Distilled

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/distilled?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/distilled?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/distilled) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/distilled?window=all)

Price · $14.21 · 20.3 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.89% · EV $12.92 from 19 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 88.29% · 1,555 openings, odds method

Variance · 4.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 17 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 73.1% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 89.81% ±26.91 249 openings

7 days · 87.98% ±11.00 1,449 openings

30 days · 88.29% ±10.61 1,555 openings

since tracking started · 88.29% ±10.61 1,555 openings

62.0% 89.8% 117.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/distilled?window=24h) | 249 | 89.81% ±26.9 | −0.1σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/distilled?window=7d) | 1,449 | 87.98% ±11.0 | −0.5σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/distilled) | 1,555 | 88.29% ±10.6 | −0.5σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/distilled?window=all) | 1,555 | 88.29% ±10.6 | −0.5σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 19 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,555 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fairy-tale-factory-new) | 1 in 111 | $234 335 coins | 16.3% | 19 | 14.0 | 1.36× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $214 305 coins | 1.7% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.64× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $160 229 coins | 3.7% | 2 | 4.7 | 0.43× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Stained (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-stained-well-worn) | 1 in 250 | $135 193 coins | 4.2% | 4 | 6.2 | 0.64× |
| [AK-47 \| Redline (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $118 169 coins | 1.8% | 2 | 3.1 | 0.64× |
| [AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 125 | $102 145 coins | 6.3% | 11 | 12.4 | 0.88× |
| [MP9 \| Pandora's Box (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-pandoras-box-minimal-wear) | 1 in 154 | $97.30 139 coins | 4.9% | 8 | 10.1 | 0.79× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-autotronic-field-tested) | 1 in 182 | $80.50 115 coins | 3.4% | 5 | 8.6 | 0.58× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $77.00 110 coins | 3.0% | 7 | 7.8 | 0.90× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Candy Apple (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-candy-apple-field-tested) | 1 in 67 | $53.11 75.87 coins | 6.2% | 21 | 23.3 | 0.90× |
| [USP-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $34.79 49.7 coins | 10.8% | 63 | 62.2 | 1.01× |
| [M4A1-S \| Guardian (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $24.88 35.55 coins | 9.6% | 79 | 77.8 | 1.02× |
| [Glock-18 \| Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-pink-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $21.34 30.48 coins | 3.3% | 32 | 31.1 | 1.03× |
| [G3SG1 \| Violet Murano (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-violet-murano-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $21.01 30.02 coins | 11.4% | 110 | 108.9 | 1.01× |
| [Glock-18 \| AXIA (Minimal Wear) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-axia-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $19.01 27.15 coins | 4.4% | 46 | 46.6 | 0.99× |
| [Tec-9 \| Hades (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-hades-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $13.29 18.98 coins | 8.3% | 127 | 126.0 | 1.01× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Urban Rubble (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-urban-rubble-well-worn) | 20.0% | $0.18 0.26 coins | 0.3% | 310 | 311.0 | 1.00× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Full Stop (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-full-stop-well-worn) | 20.0% | $0.12 0.17 coins | 0.2% | 306 | 311.0 | 0.98× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Silver Quartz (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-silver-quartz-field-tested) | 25.0% | $0.10 0.14 coins | 0.2% | 402 | 388.8 | 1.03× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=distilled)

[Sawed-Off | Full Stop (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-full-stop-well-worn) Hidden $14.21 20.3 coins $0.12 0.17 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 11:19 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Silver Quartz (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-silver-quartz-field-tested) [ElChapo](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/ElChapo) $14.21 20.3 coins $0.10 0.14 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 11:19 UTC

[USP-S | Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-field-tested) Hidden $14.21 20.3 coins $34.79 49.7 coins 2.45x 2026-11-11 11:19 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Candy Apple (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-candy-apple-field-tested) Hidden $14.21 20.3 coins $53.11 75.87 coins 3.74x 2026-11-11 11:19 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Silver Quartz (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-silver-quartz-field-tested) Hidden $14.21 20.3 coins $0.10 0.14 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 11:12 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Full Stop (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-full-stop-well-worn) Hidden $14.21 20.3 coins $0.12 0.17 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 11:12 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Full Stop (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-full-stop-well-worn) Hidden $14.21 20.3 coins $0.12 0.17 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 11:12 UTC

[G3SG1 | Violet Murano (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-violet-murano-field-tested) [ElChapo](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/ElChapo) $14.21 20.3 coins $21.01 30.02 coins 1.48x 2026-11-11 11:12 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Urban Rubble (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-urban-rubble-well-worn) Hidden $14.21 20.3 coins $0.18 0.26 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 10:09 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Silver Quartz (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-silver-quartz-field-tested) [ignashi](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/ignashi) $14.21 20.3 coins $0.10 0.14 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 10:09 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 9 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $14.21 | 90.89% | 19 |
| 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $14.20 | 90.91% | 19 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $14.20 | 90.91% | 19 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $14.45 | 90.91% | 19 |
| 6 Nov, 10:50 UTC | $14.41 | 90.91% | 19 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $14.41 | 90.92% | 19 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed classified 6.1% covert 6.7% mil spec 72.7% industrial 9.6% restricted 2.0% rare 3.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.89 on average: an expected loss of $9.11 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt