--- title: "Downfall case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Downfall ($134.90) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 12 items with odds, observed 99.99% over 218 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/downfall rendered: 2026-11-11T14:33Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Downfall](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/downfall) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Downfall A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/downfall?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/downfall?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/downfall) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/downfall?window=all) Price · $134.90 · 193 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $122.64 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 99.99% · 218 openings, odds method Variance · 3.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 13 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 6 openings · below min 7 days · 108.24% ±27.47 184 openings 30 days · 99.99% ±25.24 218 openings since tracking started · 99.99% ±25.24 218 openings -0.5% 109.8% 220.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/downfall?window=24h) | 6 | 67.72% ±151.8 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/downfall?window=7d) | 184 | 108.24% ±27.5 | +1.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/downfall) | 218 | 99.99% ±25.2 | +0.7σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/downfall?window=all) | 218 | 99.99% ±25.2 | +0.7σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 218 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-battle-scarred) | 1 in 67 | $1,865 2,665 coins | 22.8% | 6 | 3.3 | 1.83× | | [Glock-18 \| Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $1,142 1,631 coins | 4.7% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.92× | | [★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife \| Stained (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-paracord-knife-stained-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $560 800 coins | 11.4% | 1 | 5.5 | 0.18× | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $525 750 coins | 12.8% | 6 | 6.5 | 0.92× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Omega (Field-Tested) gloves · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-omega-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $155 221 coins | 2.5% | 4 | 4.4 | 0.92× | | [Sticker \| flamie (Gold) \| Boston 2018 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-flamie-gold-boston-2018) | 1 in 14 | $130 186 coins | 7.4% | 14 | 15.3 | 0.92× | | [M4A4 \| Hellfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $129 184 coins | 15.8% | 35 | 32.7 | 1.07× | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-damascus-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $88.90 127 coins | 5.8% | 13 | 17.4 | 0.75× | | [Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-minimal-wear) | 12.0% | $66.79 95.42 coins | 6.5% | 37 | 26.2 | 1.41× | | [FAMAS \| Afterimage (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-afterimage-factory-new) | 12.0% | $38.02 54.31 coins | 3.7% | 22 | 26.2 | 0.84× | | [M4A4 \| Red DDPAT (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-red-ddpat-battle-scarred) | 18.0% | $26.75 38.22 coins | 3.9% | 41 | 39.2 | 1.04× | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-tooth-fairy-factory-new) | 18.5% | $17.09 24.41 coins | 2.6% | 38 | 40.3 | 0.94× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-battle-scarred) Hidden $139 198 coins $1,949 2,785 coins 14.06x 2026-11-06 21:12 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-battle-scarred) Hidden $139 198 coins $1,949 2,785 coins 14.06x 2026-11-06 14:40 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-battle-scarred) Hidden $139 198 coins $1,949 2,785 coins 14.06x 2026-11-05 23:50 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-battle-scarred) Hidden $139 198 coins $1,949 2,785 coins 14.06x 2026-11-05 23:27 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-battle-scarred) [KulleZ](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/KulleZ) $139 198 coins $1,949 2,785 coins 14.06x 2026-11-04 19:27 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-battle-scarred) Hidden $135 193 coins $1,865 2,665 coins 13.83x 2026-11-09 21:59 UTC [Glock-18 | Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-minimal-wear) [Nxxh](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Nxxh) $139 198 coins $1,134 1,620 coins 8.18x 2026-11-05 23:50 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife | Stained (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-paracord-knife-stained-factory-new) Hidden $139 198 coins $560 800 coins 4.04x 2026-11-06 20:03 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-case-hardened-minimal-wear) Hidden $135 193 coins $525 750 coins 3.89x 2026-11-08 19:58 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-case-hardened-minimal-wear) [achilles](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/achilles) $139 198 coins $518 740 coins 3.74x 2026-11-07 02:14 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=downfall) [M4A4 | Red DDPAT (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-red-ddpat-battle-scarred) Hidden $135 193 coins $26.75 38.22 coins 0.20x 2026-11-10 17:19 UTC [Sticker | flamie (Gold) | Boston 2018 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-flamie-gold-boston-2018) Hidden $135 193 coins $130 186 coins 0.97x 2026-11-10 17:19 UTC [M4A4 | Hellfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-minimal-wear) Hidden $135 193 coins $129 184 coins 0.95x 2026-11-10 17:19 UTC [Desert Eagle | Cobalt Disruption (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-minimal-wear) Hidden $135 193 coins $66.79 95.42 coins 0.50x 2026-11-10 17:19 UTC [Desert Eagle | Cobalt Disruption (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-minimal-wear) Hidden $135 193 coins $66.79 95.42 coins 0.50x 2026-11-10 17:19 UTC [M4A4 | Hellfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-minimal-wear) [Lars](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Lars) $135 193 coins $129 184 coins 0.95x 2026-11-10 17:19 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-tooth-fairy-factory-new) Hidden $135 193 coins $17.09 24.41 coins 0.13x 2026-11-10 11:23 UTC [M4A4 | Red DDPAT (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-red-ddpat-battle-scarred) [DECOY](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/DECOY) $135 193 coins $26.75 38.22 coins 0.20x 2026-11-10 11:23 UTC [M4A4 | Hellfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-minimal-wear) Hidden $135 193 coins $129 184 coins 0.95x 2026-11-10 11:23 UTC [M4A4 | Red DDPAT (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-red-ddpat-battle-scarred) Hidden $135 193 coins $26.75 38.22 coins 0.20x 2026-11-10 11:23 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $135 | 90.91% | 12 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $135 | 90.91% | 12 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $139 | 90.91% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 8.5% restricted 18.5% covert 13.5% rare 2.0% classified 57.5% best hit $1,949 (14.06x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt