--- title: "Dragon Case case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Dragon Case ($53.24) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 9 items with odds, observed 74.94% over 152 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/dragon-case rendered: 2026-11-11T13:24Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Dragon Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/dragon-case) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Dragon Case A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/dragon-case?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/dragon-case?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/dragon-case) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/dragon-case?window=all) Price · $53.24 · 76.06 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $48.40 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 74.94% · 152 openings, odds method Variance · 1.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 15.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 74.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 83.74% ±24.49 106 openings 30 days · 74.94% ±20.49 152 openings since tracking started · 74.94% ±20.49 152 openings 54.0% 81.5% 109.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/dragon-case?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/dragon-case?window=7d) | 106 | 83.74% ±24.5 | −0.6σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/dragon-case) | 152 | 74.94% ±20.5 | −1.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/dragon-case?window=all) | 152 | 74.94% ±20.5 | −1.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 152 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-field-tested) | 15.0% | $193 276 coins | 59.9% | 17 | 22.8 | 0.75× | | [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-field-tested) | 10.0% | $109 156 coins | 22.6% | 15 | 15.2 | 0.99× | | [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $58.58 83.69 coins | 1.2% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× | | [AWP \| Wildfire (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $39.24 56.06 coins | 1.6% | 3 | 3.0 | 0.99× | | [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Minimal Wear) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $25.12 35.88 coins | 2.6% | 5 | 7.6 | 0.66× | | [FAMAS \| Spitfire (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-spitfire-battle-scarred) | 17.0% | $19.96 28.52 coins | 7.0% | 31 | 25.8 | 1.20× | | [P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-imperial-dragon-factory-new) | 10.0% | $19.30 27.57 coins | 4.0% | 10 | 15.2 | 0.66× | | [MAG-7 \| Firestarter (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-firestarter-minimal-wear) | 20.0% | $1.95 2.78 coins | 0.8% | 43 | 30.4 | 1.41× | | [Desert Eagle \| Oxide Blaze (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-oxide-blaze-factory-new) | 20.0% | $0.80 1.15 coins | 0.3% | 28 | 30.4 | 0.92× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=dragon-case) [MAG-7 | Firestarter (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-firestarter-minimal-wear) Hidden $53.24 76.06 coins $1.95 2.78 coins 0.04x 2026-11-10 05:16 UTC [Desert Eagle | Oxide Blaze (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-oxide-blaze-factory-new) [BeastafiedBeast](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/BeastafiedBeast) $53.24 76.06 coins $0.80 1.15 coins 0.02x 2026-11-10 05:16 UTC [P2000 | Imperial Dragon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-imperial-dragon-factory-new) Hidden $53.24 76.06 coins $19.30 27.57 coins 0.36x 2026-11-10 05:16 UTC [SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-field-tested) Hidden $53.24 76.06 coins $193 276 coins 3.63x 2026-11-10 05:16 UTC [MAG-7 | Firestarter (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-firestarter-minimal-wear) Hidden $53.24 76.06 coins $1.95 2.78 coins 0.04x 2026-11-10 01:45 UTC [Desert Eagle | Oxide Blaze (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-oxide-blaze-factory-new) Hidden $53.24 76.06 coins $0.80 1.15 coins 0.02x 2026-11-10 01:45 UTC [Desert Eagle | Oxide Blaze (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-oxide-blaze-factory-new) Hidden $53.24 76.06 coins $0.80 1.15 coins 0.02x 2026-11-10 01:45 UTC [MAG-7 | Firestarter (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-firestarter-minimal-wear) Hidden $53.24 76.06 coins $1.95 2.78 coins 0.04x 2026-11-10 01:45 UTC [M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-field-tested) Hidden $53.24 76.06 coins $109 156 coins 2.05x 2026-11-10 01:45 UTC [Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Minimal Wear) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-minimal-wear) [m1chi](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/m1chi) $53.24 76.06 coins $25.12 35.88 coins 0.47x 2026-11-10 01:45 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 9 Nov, 00:04 UTC | $53.24 | 90.91% | 9 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $53.24 | 90.91% | 9 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $53.36 | 90.91% | 9 | | 5 Nov, 22:45 UTC | $54.48 | 90.90% | 9 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $54.44 | 90.90% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 28.0% Classified 5.0% restricted 17.0% classified 10.0% mil spec 40.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt