---
title: "Dragons case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Dragons ($47.21) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 18 items with odds, observed 92.20% over 715 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/dragons
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:24Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Dragons](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/dragons)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Dragons

A case on CSGORoll (hot, 25%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/dragons?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/dragons?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/dragons) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/dragons?window=all)

Price · $47.21 · 67.45 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $42.92 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 92.20% · 715 openings, odds method

Variance · 15.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 11.1% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 70.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 12 openings · below min

7 days · 87.56% ±32.30 567 openings

30 days · 92.20% ±28.78 715 openings

since tracking started · 92.20% ±28.78 715 openings

-0.5% 150.0% 300.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/dragons?window=24h) | 12 | 79.22% ±220.6 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/dragons?window=7d) | 567 | 87.56% ±32.3 | −0.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/dragons) | 715 | 92.20% ±28.8 | +0.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/dragons?window=all) | 715 | 92.20% ±28.8 | +0.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 715 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Factory New) 4x Titan (Holo) (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new-4x-titan-holo-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $158K 225,000 coins | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $10.6K 15,130 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 10,000 | $5,688 8,125 coins | 1.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Emerald Dragon (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-emerald-dragon-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $592 846 coins | 1.4% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Emerald Dragon (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-emerald-dragon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $291 415 coins | 13.5% | 11 | 14.3 | 0.77× |
| [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-well-worn) | 1 in 11 | $190 271 coins | 39.8% | 72 | 64.3 | 1.12× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Dragon Tattoo (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-dragon-tattoo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $186 265 coins | 4.3% | 5 | 7.2 | 0.70× |
| [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-dragonfire-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $88.20 126 coins | 10.3% | 38 | 35.8 | 1.06× |
| [Glock-18 \| Dragon Tattoo (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-dragon-tattoo-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $77.00 110 coins | 5.4% | 17 | 21.4 | 0.79× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $59.44 84.91 coins | 6.8% | 41 | 35.0 | 1.17× |
| [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $50.61 72.3 coins | 5.9% | 45 | 35.8 | 1.26× |
| [Zeus x27 \| Dragon Snore (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-dragon-snore-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $33.81 48.3 coins | 3.2% | 25 | 28.6 | 0.87× |
| [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-imperial-dragon-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $21.90 31.28 coins | 4.1% | 68 | 57.2 | 1.19× |
| [Sticker \| Dragon Lore Surf Ava (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dragon-lore-surf-ava-foil) | 1 in 11 | $7.89 11.27 coins | 1.7% | 67 | 64.3 | 1.04× |
| [Sticker \| Dragon Lore (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dragon-lore-foil) | 1 in 11 | $6.17 8.82 coins | 1.3% | 63 | 64.3 | 0.98× |
| [Sticker \| Dragon (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dragon-foil) | 10.0% | $1.82 2.6 coins | 0.4% | 57 | 71.5 | 0.80× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Dualing Dragons (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-dualing-dragons-battle-scarred) | 15.0% | $0.29 0.42 coins | 0.1% | 107 | 107.3 | 1.00× |
| [Sticker \| Dragon Tale sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dragon-tale) | 15.0% | $0.06 0.08 coins | 0.0% | 98 | 107.3 | 0.91× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[StatTrak™ P90 | Emerald Dragon (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-emerald-dragon-factory-new) Hidden $47.21 67.45 coins $592 846 coins 12.54x 2026-11-10 04:04 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=dragons)

[Sticker | Dragon Lore Surf Ava (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dragon-lore-surf-ava-foil) [Crimzie](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Crimzie) $47.21 67.45 coins $7.89 11.27 coins 0.17x 2026-11-11 10:32 UTC

[Sticker | Dragon Lore (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dragon-lore-foil) Hidden $47.21 67.45 coins $6.17 8.82 coins 0.13x 2026-11-10 19:46 UTC

[Sticker | Dragon Lore (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dragon-lore-foil) Hidden $47.21 67.45 coins $6.17 8.82 coins 0.13x 2026-11-10 19:46 UTC

[StatTrak™ P2000 | Imperial Dragon (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-imperial-dragon-factory-new) Hidden $47.21 67.45 coins $21.90 31.28 coins 0.46x 2026-11-10 19:46 UTC

[StatTrak™ P2000 | Imperial Dragon (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-imperial-dragon-factory-new) Hidden $47.21 67.45 coins $21.90 31.28 coins 0.46x 2026-11-10 19:46 UTC

[SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-well-worn) Hidden $47.21 67.45 coins $190 271 coins 4.02x 2026-11-10 19:46 UTC

[M4A4 | 龍王 (Dragon King) (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-factory-new) [BOT jorb](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/BOT%20jorb) $47.21 67.45 coins $50.61 72.3 coins 1.07x 2026-11-10 19:46 UTC

[Sticker | Dragon Lore (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dragon-lore-foil) Hidden $47.21 67.45 coins $6.17 8.82 coins 0.13x 2026-11-10 15:45 UTC

[Sticker | Dragon Tale sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dragon-tale) Hidden $47.21 67.45 coins $0.06 0.08 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 15:45 UTC

[Sticker | Dragon (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dragon-foil) [rrtyuifanboy](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/rrtyuifanboy) $47.21 67.45 coins $1.82 2.6 coins 0.04x 2026-11-10 15:45 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $47.21 | 90.91% | 18 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $47.21 | 90.91% | 18 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $46.52 | 90.91% | 18 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $46.84 | 90.91% | 18 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed legendary 0.0% covert 14.0% epic 0.1% classified 19.9% restricted 4.0% rare 4.0% exotic 28.0% mil spec 15.0% high 15.0% best hit $592 (12.54x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt