--- title: "Dream On case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Dream On ($7.57) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 10 items with odds, observed 102.12% over 16.1K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/dream-on rendered: 2026-11-11T13:52Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Dream On](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/dream-on) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Dream On A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/dream-on?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/dream-on?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/dream-on) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/dream-on?window=all) Price · $7.57 · 10.81 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $6.88 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 102.12% · 16.1K openings, odds method Variance · 347.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 833 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 99.7% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 2,480 openings · below min 7 days · 106.92% ±30.76 13.7K openings 30 days · 102.12% ±28.34 16.1K openings since tracking started · 102.12% ±28.34 16.1K openings 27.5% 101.5% 175.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/dream-on?window=24h) | 2,480 | 101.66% ±73.4 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/dream-on?window=7d) | 13.7K | 106.92% ±30.8 | +1.0σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/dream-on) | 16.1K | 102.12% ±28.3 | +0.8σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/dream-on?window=all) | 16.1K | 102.12% ±28.3 | +0.8σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 16.2K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $9,856 14,080 coins | 14.3% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.24× | | [AWP \| Gungnir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-battle-scarred) | 1 in 10,000 | $6,188 8,840 coins | 9.0% | 3 | 1.6 | 1.86× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fire-serpent-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,921 2,745 coins | 27.9% | 13 | 16.2 | 0.80× | | [AWP \| The Prince (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,559 2,227 coins | 22.7% | 19 | 16.2 | 1.18× | | [M4A4 \| Poseidon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,241 1,773 coins | 1.8% | 3 | 1.6 | 1.86× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $346 494 coins | 5.0% | 20 | 16.2 | 1.24× | | [MAC-10 \| Palm (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-palm-factory-new) | 21.0% | $2.37 3.38 coins | 7.2% | 3,410 | 3392.8 | 1.01× | | [P250 \| Bone Mask (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-bone-mask-field-tested) | 21.0% | $1.88 2.68 coins | 5.7% | 3,418 | 3392.8 | 1.01× | | [Five-SeveN \| Contractor (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-contractor-field-tested) | 21.0% | $1.39 1.99 coins | 4.3% | 3,329 | 3392.8 | 0.98× | | [Galil AR \| Cold Fusion (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-cold-fusion-factory-new) | 36.7% | $0.39 0.55 coins | 2.1% | 5,939 | 5924.4 | 1.00× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-minimal-wear) Hidden $7.57 10.81 coins $9,856 14,080 coins 1,302x 2026-11-09 22:36 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-minimal-wear) Hidden $7.71 11.01 coins $9,856 14,080 coins 1,279x 2026-11-08 20:29 UTC [AWP | Gungnir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-battle-scarred) Hidden $7.57 10.81 coins $6,188 8,840 coins 817.8x 2026-11-11 00:28 UTC [AWP | Gungnir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-battle-scarred) Hidden $7.57 10.81 coins $6,188 8,840 coins 817.8x 2026-11-09 18:37 UTC [AWP | Gungnir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-battle-scarred) Hidden $7.57 10.81 coins $6,188 8,840 coins 817.8x 2026-11-09 06:26 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fire-serpent-field-tested) Hidden $7.57 10.81 coins $1,921 2,745 coins 253.9x 2026-11-10 15:46 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fire-serpent-field-tested) Hidden $7.57 10.81 coins $1,921 2,745 coins 253.9x 2026-11-10 15:09 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fire-serpent-field-tested) [DECOY](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/DECOY) $7.57 10.81 coins $1,921 2,745 coins 253.9x 2026-11-10 09:46 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fire-serpent-field-tested) Hidden $7.57 10.81 coins $1,921 2,745 coins 253.9x 2026-11-10 09:10 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fire-serpent-field-tested) [The other other guy](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/The%20other%20other%20guy) $7.57 10.81 coins $1,921 2,745 coins 253.9x 2026-11-10 09:02 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=dream-on) [Five-SeveN | Contractor (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-contractor-field-tested) Hidden $7.57 10.81 coins $1.39 1.99 coins 0.18x 2026-11-11 13:45 UTC [Galil AR | Cold Fusion (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-cold-fusion-factory-new) Hidden $7.57 10.81 coins $0.39 0.55 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 13:45 UTC [MAC-10 | Palm (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-palm-factory-new) [Eminescu](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Eminescu) $7.57 10.81 coins $2.37 3.38 coins 0.31x 2026-11-11 13:45 UTC [Galil AR | Cold Fusion (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-cold-fusion-factory-new) [玩我箱子&CODE :KK1Y1](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/%E7%8E%A9%E6%88%91%E7%AE%B1%E5%AD%90%26CODE%20%3AKK1Y1) $7.57 10.81 coins $0.39 0.55 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 13:45 UTC [Galil AR | Cold Fusion (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-cold-fusion-factory-new) Hidden $7.57 10.81 coins $0.39 0.55 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 13:45 UTC [Five-SeveN | Contractor (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-contractor-field-tested) Hidden $7.57 10.81 coins $1.39 1.99 coins 0.18x 2026-11-11 13:45 UTC [Five-SeveN | Contractor (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-contractor-field-tested) Hidden $7.57 10.81 coins $1.39 1.99 coins 0.18x 2026-11-11 13:45 UTC [P250 | Bone Mask (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-bone-mask-field-tested) Hidden $7.57 10.81 coins $1.88 2.68 coins 0.25x 2026-11-11 13:45 UTC [P250 | Bone Mask (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-bone-mask-field-tested) Hidden $7.57 10.81 coins $1.88 2.68 coins 0.25x 2026-11-11 13:45 UTC [Galil AR | Cold Fusion (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-cold-fusion-factory-new) Hidden $7.57 10.81 coins $0.39 0.55 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 13:44 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 10 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $7.57 | 90.91% | 10 | | 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $7.57 | 90.95% | 10 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $7.59 | 90.90% | 10 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $7.71 | 90.89% | 10 | | 6 Nov, 22:57 UTC | $7.66 | 90.89% | 10 | | 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $7.66 | 90.88% | 10 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $7.65 | 90.89% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.1% legendary 0.1% classified 0.0% extraordinary 0.1% industrial 57.7% consumer 42.0% best hit $9,856 (1,302x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt