--- title: "Dredge case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Dredge ($2.95) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.85% from 20 items with odds, observed 92.38% over 32.5K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/dredge rendered: 2026-11-11T13:11Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Dredge](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/dredge) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Dredge A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/dredge?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/dredge?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/dredge) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/dredge?window=all) Price · $2.95 · 4.21 coins Advertised RTP · 90.85% · EV $2.68 from 20 items Observed RTP, 30d · 92.38% · 32.5K openings, odds method Variance · 8.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 24 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 81.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 87.78% ±8.61 4,216 openings 7 days · 92.76% ±3.41 27.2K openings 30 days · 92.38% ±3.12 32.5K openings since tracking started · 92.38% ±3.12 32.5K openings 78.5% 87.8% 97.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/dredge?window=24h) | 4,216 | 87.78% ±8.61 | −0.7σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/dredge?window=7d) | 27.2K | 92.76% ±3.41 | +1.0σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/dredge) | 32.5K | 92.38% ±3.12 | +0.9σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/dredge?window=all) | 32.5K | 92.38% ±3.12 | +0.9σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 32.5K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AK-47 \| Jaguar (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jaguar-field-tested) | 1 in 500 | $79.10 113 coins | 5.9% | 55 | 65.0 | 0.85× | | [AUG \| Chameleon (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-chameleon-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $73.50 105 coins | 13.7% | 179 | 162.6 | 1.10× | | [Glock-18 \| Groundwater (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-groundwater-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $65.65 93.78 coins | 2.5% | 35 | 32.5 | 1.08× | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Arboreal (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-arboreal-well-worn) | 1 in 286 | $34.31 49.01 coins | 4.5% | 101 | 113.8 | 0.89× | | [★ Hydra Gloves \| Mangrove (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-mangrove-minimal-wear) | 1 in 286 | $33.42 47.74 coins | 4.4% | 115 | 113.8 | 1.01× | | [Tec-9 \| Toxic (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-toxic-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $23.00 32.86 coins | 12.9% | 485 | 487.7 | 0.99× | | [M4A4 \| Zirka (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-zirka-well-worn) | 1 in 91 | $17.91 25.59 coins | 7.4% | 370 | 357.7 | 1.03× | | [USP-S \| Overgrowth (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-overgrowth-battle-scarred) | 1 in 77 | $17.39 24.84 coins | 8.4% | 454 | 422.7 | 1.07× | | [M4A1-S \| Moss Quartz (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-moss-quartz-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $15.83 22.62 coins | 3.0% | 163 | 162.6 | 1.00× | | [Negev \| CaliCamo (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-calicamo-well-worn) | 1 in 57 | $13.87 19.81 coins | 9.1% | 580 | 569.0 | 1.02× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Poison Dart (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-poison-dart-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $11.45 16.36 coins | 10.7% | 832 | 812.9 | 1.02× | | [XM1014 \| Banana Leaf (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-banana-leaf-minimal-wear) | 1 in 77 | $9.39 13.41 coins | 4.6% | 444 | 422.7 | 1.05× | | [Souvenir USP-S \| Forest Leaves (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-usp-s-forest-leaves-well-worn) | 1 in 500 | $7.68 10.97 coins | 0.6% | 69 | 65.0 | 1.06× | | [Souvenir M249 \| Gator Mesh (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m249-gator-mesh-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,000 | $6.38 9.11 coins | 0.2% | 30 | 32.5 | 0.92× | | [AK-47 \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 57 | $5.33 7.62 coins | 3.5% | 568 | 569.0 | 1.00× | | [M4A4 \| Jungle Tiger (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-jungle-tiger-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $3.86 5.52 coins | 7.2% | 1,574 | 1625.8 | 0.97× | | [SG 553 \| Desert Blossom (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-desert-blossom-field-tested) | 1 in 67 | $2.09 2.98 coins | 1.2% | 473 | 487.7 | 0.97× | | [Tec-9 \| Groundwater (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-groundwater-field-tested) | 25.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.1% | 8,037 | 8128.8 | 0.99× | | [Five-SeveN \| Forest Night (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-forest-night-field-tested) | 25.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.1% | 8,084 | 8128.8 | 0.99× | | [PP-Bizon \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 30.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.2% | 9,867 | 9754.5 | 1.01× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=dredge) [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $2.95 4.21 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:07 UTC [Tec-9 | Groundwater (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-groundwater-field-tested) Hidden $2.95 4.21 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:07 UTC [USP-S | Overgrowth (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-overgrowth-battle-scarred) [si^b^rO](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/si%5Eb%5ErO) $2.95 4.21 coins $17.39 24.84 coins 5.90x 2026-11-11 13:07 UTC [Tec-9 | Groundwater (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-groundwater-field-tested) Hidden $2.95 4.21 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:06 UTC [M4A4 | Jungle Tiger (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-jungle-tiger-well-worn) Hidden $2.95 4.21 coins $3.86 5.52 coins 1.31x 2026-11-11 13:06 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $2.95 4.21 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:06 UTC [Tec-9 | Groundwater (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-groundwater-field-tested) Hidden $2.95 4.21 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:06 UTC [Five-SeveN | Forest Night (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-forest-night-field-tested) [Eminescu](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Eminescu) $2.95 4.21 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:06 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Poison Dart (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-poison-dart-factory-new) Hidden $2.95 4.21 coins $11.45 16.36 coins 3.89x 2026-11-11 13:06 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $2.95 4.21 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:53 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $2.95 | 90.85% | 20 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $2.97 | 90.98% | 20 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.7% industrial 10.7% extraordinary 0.7% mil spec 4.0% restricted 2.4% blue 1.5% consumer 80.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.85 on average: an expected loss of $9.15 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt