--- title: "Drippy case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Drippy ($20.22) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 20 items with odds, observed 88.95% over 1,286 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/drippy rendered: 2026-11-11T14:03Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Drippy](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/drippy) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Drippy A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/drippy?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/drippy?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/drippy) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/drippy?window=all) Price · $20.22 · 28.89 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $18.39 from 20 items Observed RTP, 30d · 88.95% · 1,286 openings, odds method Variance · 1.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 29.8% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 77.2% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 92.57% ±14.36 186 openings 7 days · 87.76% ±5.84 1,127 openings 30 days · 88.95% ±5.47 1,286 openings since tracking started · 88.95% ±5.47 1,286 openings 77.5% 92.5% 107.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/drippy?window=24h) | 186 | 92.57% ±14.4 | +0.2σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/drippy?window=7d) | 1,127 | 87.76% ±5.84 | −1.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/drippy) | 1,286 | 88.95% ±5.47 | −0.7σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/drippy?window=all) | 1,286 | 88.95% ±5.47 | −0.7σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,286 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Vulcan (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-vulcan-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,229 1,755 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 500,000 | $1,034 1,477 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20,000 | $414 591 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-kill-confirmed-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $193 275 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Amphibious (Battle-Scarred) gloves · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-amphibious-battle-scarred) | 1 in 10,000 | $183 261 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Stained (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-stained-well-worn) | 1 in 5,000 | $135 193 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [P250 \| Nuclear Threat (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nuclear-threat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $123 176 coins | 0.7% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× | | [MAC-10 \| Graven (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-graven-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $109 156 coins | 14.8% | 35 | 32.2 | 1.09× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-neon-revolution-well-worn) | 1 in 182 | $89.60 128 coins | 2.7% | 4 | 7.1 | 0.57× | | [Five-SeveN \| Candy Apple (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-candy-apple-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $53.11 75.87 coins | 0.1% | 1 | 0.6 | — | | [AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $40.04 57.2 coins | 8.7% | 43 | 51.4 | 0.84× | | [Five-SeveN \| Contractor (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-contractor-factory-new) | 10.0% | $26.87 38.39 coins | 14.6% | 125 | 128.6 | 0.97× | | [M4A1-S \| Guardian (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $21.48 30.69 coins | 6.4% | 77 | 70.7 | 1.09× | | [UMP-45 \| Neo-Noir (Factory New) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-neo-noir-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $18.61 26.59 coins | 7.1% | 96 | 90.0 | 1.07× | | [Sticker \| Miami Tier6 (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-miami-tier6-holo) | 10.0% | $15.60 22.28 coins | 8.5% | 118 | 128.6 | 0.92× | | [StatTrak™ P250 \| Epicenter (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-epicenter-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $15.01 21.44 coins | 8.2% | 128 | 128.6 | 1.00× | | [P250 \| Red Rock (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-red-rock-battle-scarred) | 10.0% | $14.97 21.38 coins | 8.1% | 135 | 128.6 | 1.05× | | [P250 \| Muertos (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-battle-scarred) | 10.0% | $11.70 16.71 coins | 6.4% | 141 | 128.6 | 1.10× | | [AUG \| Torque (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-torque-factory-new) | 10.0% | $8.04 11.48 coins | 4.4% | 117 | 128.6 | 0.91× | | [Tec-9 \| Titanium Bit (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-titanium-bit-field-tested) | 20.2% | $7.62 10.88 coins | 8.4% | 266 | 260.3 | 1.02× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=drippy) [Five-SeveN | Contractor (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-contractor-factory-new) Hidden $20.22 28.89 coins $26.87 38.39 coins 1.33x 2026-11-11 10:45 UTC [Sticker | Miami Tier6 (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-miami-tier6-holo) Hidden $20.22 28.89 coins $15.60 22.28 coins 0.77x 2026-11-11 10:45 UTC [P250 | Red Rock (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-red-rock-battle-scarred) Hidden $20.22 28.89 coins $14.97 21.38 coins 0.74x 2026-11-11 10:45 UTC [Sticker | Miami Tier6 (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-miami-tier6-holo) Hidden $20.22 28.89 coins $15.60 22.28 coins 0.77x 2026-11-11 10:45 UTC [Tec-9 | Titanium Bit (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-titanium-bit-field-tested) [UnfairScroll27](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/UnfairScroll27) $20.22 28.89 coins $7.62 10.88 coins 0.38x 2026-11-11 10:45 UTC [Sticker | Miami Tier6 (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-miami-tier6-holo) Hidden $20.22 28.89 coins $15.60 22.28 coins 0.77x 2026-11-11 10:45 UTC [AUG | Torque (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-torque-factory-new) Hidden $20.22 28.89 coins $8.04 11.48 coins 0.40x 2026-11-11 10:44 UTC [Five-SeveN | Contractor (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-contractor-factory-new) Hidden $20.22 28.89 coins $26.87 38.39 coins 1.33x 2026-11-11 10:44 UTC [P250 | Muertos (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-battle-scarred) Hidden $20.22 28.89 coins $11.70 16.71 coins 0.58x 2026-11-11 10:44 UTC [P250 | Muertos (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-battle-scarred) Hidden $20.22 28.89 coins $11.70 16.71 coins 0.58x 2026-11-11 10:44 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $20.22 | 90.91% | 20 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $20.66 | 90.92% | 20 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $20.75 | 90.90% | 20 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 4.6% rare 10.0% restricted 42.8% industrial 0.1% consumer 10.0% classified 15.5% uncommon 7.0% remarkable 10.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt