--- title: "Dubious case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Dubious ($0.48) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 91.23% from 10 items with odds, observed 89.23% over 269K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/dubious rendered: 2026-11-11T12:45Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Dubious](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/dubious) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Dubious A case on CSGORoll (1%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/dubious?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/dubious?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/dubious) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/dubious?window=all) Price · $0.48 · 0.68 coins Advertised RTP · 91.23% · EV $0.43 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 89.23% · 269K openings, odds method Variance · 119.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 277 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 99.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 90.65% ±13.73 24.4K openings 7 days · 89.63% ±4.55 220K openings 30 days · 89.23% ±4.11 269K openings since tracking started · 89.23% ±4.11 269K openings 76.5% 90.8% 105.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/dubious?window=24h) | 24.4K | 90.65% ±13.7 | −0.1σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/dubious?window=7d) | 220K | 89.63% ±4.55 | −0.6σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/dubious) | 269K | 89.23% ±4.11 | −0.9σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/dubious?window=all) | 269K | 89.23% ±4.11 | −0.9σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 269K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-well-worn) | 1 in 100,000 | $307 438 coins | 0.7% | 3 | 2.7 | 1.11× | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-cobalt-skulls-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $174 249 coins | 4.0% | 30 | 26.9 | 1.11× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) | 1 in 10,000 | $132 188 coins | 3.0% | 28 | 26.9 | 1.04× | | [M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-bullet-rain-field-tested) | 1 in 500 | $76.30 109 coins | 35.1% | 503 | 538.2 | 0.93× | | [AWP \| Electric Hive (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-electric-hive-factory-new) | 1 in 2,500 | $63.80 91.14 coins | 5.9% | 100 | 107.6 | 0.93× | | [AWP \| Wildfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $61.54 87.92 coins | 14.2% | 273 | 269.1 | 1.01× | | [Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sugar-rush-battle-scarred) | 1 in 500 | $42.21 60.3 coins | 19.4% | 522 | 538.2 | 0.97× | | [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-field-tested) | 1 in 228 | $15.07 21.53 coins | 15.2% | 1,198 | 1181.3 | 1.01× | | [PP-Bizon \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 49.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 1.6% | 131,678 | 131850.7 | 1.00× | | [MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 50.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.8% | 134,748 | 134541.5 | 1.00× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-well-worn) Hidden $0.47 0.67 coins $312 445 coins 664.2x 2026-11-03 22:01 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-well-worn) Hidden $0.47 0.67 coins $312 445 coins 664.2x 2026-11-03 17:22 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-well-worn) Hidden $0.48 0.69 coins $307 438 coins 634.8x 2026-11-08 19:12 UTC [★ Hand Wraps | Cobalt Skulls (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-cobalt-skulls-field-tested) Hidden $0.48 0.68 coins $174 249 coins 366.2x 2026-11-10 22:22 UTC [★ Hand Wraps | Cobalt Skulls (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-cobalt-skulls-field-tested) [𓂀 ℝ𝕚𝕜𝕠 𓂀](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/%F0%93%82%80%20%E2%84%9D%F0%9D%95%9A%F0%9D%95%9C%F0%9D%95%A0%20%F0%93%82%80) $0.48 0.68 coins $174 249 coins 366.2x 2026-11-10 15:14 UTC [★ Hand Wraps | Cobalt Skulls (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-cobalt-skulls-field-tested) Hidden $0.48 0.68 coins $174 249 coins 366.2x 2026-11-10 11:39 UTC [★ Hand Wraps | Cobalt Skulls (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-cobalt-skulls-field-tested) [DreaMz-](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/DreaMz-) $0.48 0.68 coins $174 249 coins 366.2x 2026-11-09 22:46 UTC [★ Hand Wraps | Cobalt Skulls (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-cobalt-skulls-field-tested) Hidden $0.48 0.68 coins $174 249 coins 366.2x 2026-11-09 20:25 UTC [★ Hand Wraps | Cobalt Skulls (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-cobalt-skulls-field-tested) [TrUnKs](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/TrUnKs) $0.48 0.68 coins $174 249 coins 366.2x 2026-11-09 19:26 UTC [★ Hand Wraps | Cobalt Skulls (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-cobalt-skulls-field-tested) Hidden $0.48 0.68 coins $174 249 coins 366.2x 2026-11-09 13:58 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=dubious) [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $0.48 0.68 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 12:44 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $0.48 0.68 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 12:44 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $0.48 0.68 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 12:44 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $0.48 0.68 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:44 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $0.48 0.68 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:44 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) [Kebabas](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Kebabas) $0.48 0.68 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 12:44 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $0.48 0.68 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 12:44 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $0.48 0.68 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 12:44 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) [Kebabas](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Kebabas) $0.48 0.68 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 12:44 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $0.48 0.68 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:44 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $0.48 | 91.23% | 10 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $0.47 | 91.22% | 10 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.47 | 91.17% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 0.0% covert 0.3% classified 0.7% consumer 99.0% best hit $312 (664.2x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 91.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $91.23 on average: an expected loss of $8.77 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt