--- title: "Dune storm case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Dune storm ($12.00) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.90% from 17 items with odds, observed 93.94% over 4,740 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/dune-storm rendered: 2026-11-11T15:13Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Dune storm](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/dune-storm) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Dune storm A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/dune-storm?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/dune-storm?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/dune-storm) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/dune-storm?window=all) Price · $12.00 · 17.14 coins Advertised RTP · 90.90% · EV $10.91 from 17 items Observed RTP, 30d · 93.94% · 4,740 openings, odds method Variance · 5.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 14 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 82.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 124.46% ±19.82 564 openings 7 days · 94.97% ±7.35 4,124 openings 30 days · 93.94% ±6.86 4,740 openings since tracking started · 93.94% ±6.86 4,740 openings 86.5% 115.8% 145.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/dune-storm?window=24h) | 564 | 124.46% ±19.8 | +3.3σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/dune-storm?window=7d) | 4,124 | 94.97% ±7.35 | +1.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/dune-storm) | 4,740 | 93.94% ±6.86 | +0.9σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/dune-storm?window=all) | 4,740 | 93.94% ±6.86 | +0.9σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,740 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $918 1,312 coins | 0.8% | 1 | 0.5 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,000 | $446 637 coins | 2.0% | 1 | 2.4 | 0.42× | | [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-factory-new) | 1 in 1,429 | $283 404 coins | 1.8% | 2 | 3.3 | 0.60× | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Night (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-night-factory-new) | 1 in 667 | $266 380 coins | 3.7% | 6 | 7.1 | 0.84× | | [P90 \| Asiimov (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-asiimov-factory-new) | 1 in 294 | $218 312 coins | 6.8% | 17 | 16.1 | 1.05× | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Desert Shamagh (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-desert-shamagh-factory-new) | 1 in 769 | $183 261 coins | 2.2% | 7 | 6.2 | 1.14× | | [StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| Judgement of Anubis (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-pp-bizon-judgement-of-anubis-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $118 169 coins | 10.8% | 55 | 47.4 | 1.16× | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-buzz-kill-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $105 150 coins | 4.8% | 24 | 23.7 | 1.01× | | [Sticker \| Kaze (Gold) \| Katowice 2019 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-kaze-gold-katowice-2019) | 1 in 57 | $76.30 109 coins | 12.2% | 93 | 83.0 | 1.12× | | [Sticker \| Splyce (Holo) \| MLG Columbus 2016 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-splyce-holo-mlg-columbus-2016) | 1 in 33 | $32.99 47.13 coins | 9.1% | 141 | 142.2 | 0.99× | | [MP9 \| Setting Sun (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-setting-sun-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $30.25 43.22 coins | 8.3% | 147 | 142.2 | 1.03× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $20.01 28.59 coins | 13.8% | 376 | 355.5 | 1.06× | | [Sticker \| Eternal Fire (Gold) \| Copenhagen 2024 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-eternal-fire-gold-copenhagen-2024) | 15.5% | $6.45 9.21 coins | 9.2% | 749 | 734.7 | 1.02× | | [Tec-9 \| Orange Murano (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-orange-murano-field-tested) | 16.0% | $3.82 5.45 coins | 5.6% | 729 | 758.4 | 0.96× | | [Sticker \| Incineration (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-incineration-holo) | 16.5% | $2.56 3.66 coins | 3.9% | 758 | 782.1 | 0.97× | | [R8 Revolver \| Blaze (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-blaze-minimal-wear) | 16.5% | $2.25 3.22 coins | 3.4% | 779 | 782.1 | 1.00× | | [XM1014 \| Teclu Burner (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-teclu-burner-well-worn) | 18.0% | $0.94 1.34 coins | 1.5% | 855 | 853.2 | 1.00× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) Hidden $12.30 17.57 coins $981 1,402 coins 79.80x 2026-11-05 16:55 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=dune-storm) [Sticker | Incineration (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-incineration-holo) Hidden $12.00 17.14 coins $2.56 3.66 coins 0.21x 2026-11-11 14:14 UTC [Sticker | Incineration (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-incineration-holo) Hidden $12.00 17.14 coins $2.56 3.66 coins 0.21x 2026-11-11 14:14 UTC [Sticker | Incineration (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-incineration-holo) Hidden $12.00 17.14 coins $2.56 3.66 coins 0.21x 2026-11-11 14:14 UTC [Sticker | Incineration (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-incineration-holo) Hidden $12.00 17.14 coins $2.56 3.66 coins 0.21x 2026-11-11 14:14 UTC [XM1014 | Teclu Burner (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-teclu-burner-well-worn) Hidden $12.00 17.14 coins $0.94 1.34 coins 0.08x 2026-11-11 14:14 UTC [R8 Revolver | Blaze (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-blaze-minimal-wear) [APG](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/APG) $12.00 17.14 coins $2.25 3.22 coins 0.19x 2026-11-11 14:14 UTC [XM1014 | Teclu Burner (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-teclu-burner-well-worn) Hidden $12.00 17.14 coins $0.94 1.34 coins 0.08x 2026-11-11 14:12 UTC [XM1014 | Teclu Burner (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-teclu-burner-well-worn) [APG](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/APG) $12.00 17.14 coins $0.94 1.34 coins 0.08x 2026-11-11 14:12 UTC [Tec-9 | Orange Murano (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-orange-murano-field-tested) Hidden $12.00 17.14 coins $3.82 5.45 coins 0.32x 2026-11-11 14:12 UTC [Sticker | Incineration (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-incineration-holo) Hidden $12.00 17.14 coins $2.56 3.66 coins 0.21x 2026-11-11 14:12 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 10 Nov, 20:20 UTC | $12.00 | 90.90% | 17 | | 9 Nov, 00:04 UTC | $12.00 | 90.91% | 17 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $12.03 | 90.89% | 17 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $12.21 | 90.90% | 17 | | 7 Nov, 23:21 UTC | $12.30 | 90.90% | 17 | | 4 Nov, 22:33 UTC | $12.30 | 90.93% | 17 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $12.31 | 90.91% | 17 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 2.1% extraordinary 17.4% remarkable 19.5% mil spec 19.5% classified 7.5% industrial 16.0% restricted 18.0% best hit $981 (79.80x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.90 on average: an expected loss of $9.10 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt