--- title: "Earthquake case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Earthquake ($82.34) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 10 items with odds, observed 94.57% over 5,783 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/earthquake rendered: 2026-11-11T13:53Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Earthquake](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/earthquake) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Earthquake A case on CSGORoll (10%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/earthquake?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/earthquake?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/earthquake) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/earthquake?window=all) Price · $82.34 · 118 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $74.85 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 94.57% · 5,783 openings, odds method Variance · 14.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 25 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 100.95% ±52.04 207 openings 7 days · 95.27% ±10.17 5,366 openings 30 days · 94.57% ±9.80 5,783 openings since tracking started · 94.57% ±9.80 5,783 openings 48.5% 101.0% 153.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/earthquake?window=24h) | 207 | 100.95% ±52.0 | +0.4σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/earthquake?window=7d) | 5,366 | 95.27% ±10.2 | +0.8σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/earthquake) | 5,783 | 94.57% ±9.80 | +0.7σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/earthquake?window=all) | 5,783 | 94.57% ±9.80 | +0.7σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,783 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-well-worn) | 1 in 1,000 | $5,023 7,175 coins | 6.7% | 4 | 5.8 | 0.69× | | [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 167 | $2,755 3,935 coins | 22.1% | 32 | 34.7 | 0.92× | | [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 333 | $1,059 1,513 coins | 4.2% | 24 | 17.3 | 1.38× | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 100 | $1,037 1,482 coins | 13.9% | 65 | 57.8 | 1.12× | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Night (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-night-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $894 1,277 coins | 23.9% | 133 | 115.7 | 1.15× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-4) | 1 in 67 | $348 497 coins | 7.0% | 103 | 86.7 | 1.19× | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-3) | 1 in 22 | $200 285 coins | 12.0% | 254 | 260.2 | 0.98× | | [MP9 \| Hypnotic (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hypnotic-factory-new) | 30.0% | $12.42 17.75 coins | 5.0% | 1,750 | 1734.9 | 1.01× | | [P90 \| Shapewood (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-shapewood-minimal-wear) | 30.0% | $9.27 13.24 coins | 3.7% | 1,692 | 1734.9 | 0.98× | | [USP-S \| Blueprint (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blueprint-field-tested) | 30.0% | $3.91 5.58 coins | 1.6% | 1,726 | 1734.9 | 0.99× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-well-worn) Hidden $83.79 120 coins $5,170 7,385 coins 61.70x 2026-11-06 01:57 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-well-worn) [Der beste Uwe](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Der%20beste%20Uwe) $83.79 120 coins $5,170 7,385 coins 61.70x 2026-11-06 01:39 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-well-worn) Hidden $83.79 120 coins $5,170 7,385 coins 61.70x 2026-11-06 00:17 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-well-worn) Hidden $83.79 120 coins $5,170 7,385 coins 61.70x 2026-11-05 14:18 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $82.34 118 coins $2,755 3,935 coins 33.45x 2026-11-11 02:22 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $82.34 118 coins $2,755 3,935 coins 33.45x 2026-11-09 09:08 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $82.34 118 coins $2,755 3,935 coins 33.45x 2026-11-09 07:11 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $82.34 118 coins $2,755 3,935 coins 33.45x 2026-11-09 01:00 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $82.34 118 coins $2,755 3,935 coins 33.45x 2026-11-09 00:53 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $82.34 118 coins $2,755 3,935 coins 33.45x 2026-11-09 00:28 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=earthquake) [USP-S | Blueprint (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blueprint-field-tested) Hidden $82.34 118 coins $3.91 5.58 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 10:09 UTC [MP9 | Hypnotic (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hypnotic-factory-new) Hidden $82.34 118 coins $12.42 17.75 coins 0.15x 2026-11-11 10:09 UTC [P90 | Shapewood (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-shapewood-minimal-wear) Hidden $82.34 118 coins $9.27 13.24 coins 0.11x 2026-11-11 10:09 UTC [MP9 | Hypnotic (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hypnotic-factory-new) [HUd](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/HUd) $82.34 118 coins $12.42 17.75 coins 0.15x 2026-11-11 10:09 UTC [USP-S | Blueprint (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blueprint-field-tested) Hidden $82.34 118 coins $3.91 5.58 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 10:09 UTC [P90 | Shapewood (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-shapewood-minimal-wear) Hidden $82.34 118 coins $9.27 13.24 coins 0.11x 2026-11-11 10:09 UTC [P90 | Shapewood (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-shapewood-minimal-wear) Hidden $82.34 118 coins $9.27 13.24 coins 0.11x 2026-11-11 10:09 UTC [P90 | Shapewood (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-shapewood-minimal-wear) [HUd](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/HUd) $82.34 118 coins $9.27 13.24 coins 0.11x 2026-11-11 10:09 UTC [USP-S | Blueprint (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blueprint-field-tested) [Kickerrrrrrrr](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Kickerrrrrrrr) $82.34 118 coins $3.91 5.58 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 05:09 UTC [MP9 | Hypnotic (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hypnotic-factory-new) Hidden $82.34 118 coins $12.42 17.75 coins 0.15x 2026-11-11 05:09 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $82.34 | 90.91% | 10 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $82.77 | 90.91% | 10 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $83.79 | 90.91% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 8.0% epic 2.0% restricted 30.0% classified 30.0% mil spec 30.0% best hit $5,170 (61.70x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt