---
title: "Easter Gem case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Easter Gem ($36.53) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 24 items with odds, observed 85.90% over 2,061 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/easter-gem
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:48Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Easter Gem](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/easter-gem)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Easter Gem

A case on CSGORoll (10%, knives), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/easter-gem?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/easter-gem?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/easter-gem) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/easter-gem?window=all)

Price · $36.53 · 52.18 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $33.21 from 24 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 85.90% · 2,061 openings, odds method

Variance · 16.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 17 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 77.36% ±53.90 218 openings

7 days · 86.14% ±19.57 1,667 openings

30 days · 85.90% ±17.61 2,061 openings

since tracking started · 85.90% ±17.61 2,061 openings

23.0% 77.5% 132.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/easter-gem?window=24h) | 218 | 77.36% ±53.9 | −0.5σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/easter-gem?window=7d) | 1,667 | 86.14% ±19.6 | −0.5σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/easter-gem) | 2,061 | 85.90% ±17.6 | −0.6σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/easter-gem?window=all) | 2,061 | 85.90% ±17.6 | −0.6σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 24 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,061 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Sticker \| Team LDLC.com (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-ldlc-com-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 100,000 | $20.8K 29,650 coins | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) | 1 in 20,000 | $6,790 9,700 coins | 1.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 25,000 | $6,657 9,510 coins | 0.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 20,000 | $5,978 8,540 coins | 0.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 20,000 | $3,892 5,560 coins | 0.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 10,000 | $3,892 5,560 coins | 1.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 5,000 | $2,513 3,590 coins | 1.5% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) | 1 in 3,333 | $1,897 2,710 coins | 1.7% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,545 2,207 coins | 2.3% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 1,429 | $1,161 1,658 coins | 2.4% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× |
| [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,079 1,541 coins | 3.2% | 2 | 2.1 | 0.97× |
| [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-1) | 1 in 1,000 | $887 1,267 coins | 2.7% | 4 | 2.1 | 1.94× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · legendary · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-paracord-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-black-pearl) | 1 in 500 | $692 989 coins | 4.2% | 3 | 4.1 | 0.73× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 667 | $636 909 coins | 2.9% | 5 | 3.1 | 1.62× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 500 | $491 701 coins | 3.0% | 8 | 4.1 | 1.94× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 333 | $325 464 coins | 2.9% | 5 | 6.2 | 0.81× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 400 | $299 427 coins | 2.3% | 5 | 5.2 | 0.97× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-1) | 1 in 200 | $206 294 coins | 3.1% | 8 | 10.3 | 0.78× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-1) | 1 in 100 | $142 203 coins | 4.3% | 16 | 20.6 | 0.78× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 33 | $134 192 coins | 12.1% | 66 | 61.8 | 1.07× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 25 | $118 168 coins | 14.2% | 80 | 82.4 | 0.97× |
| [Sealed Graffiti \| Recoil AK-47 (Battle Green) graffiti · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-recoil-ak-47-battle-green) | 30.0% | $13.42 19.17 coins | 12.1% | 620 | 618.3 | 1.00× |
| [Sealed Graffiti \| Recoil AK-47 (War Pig Pink) graffiti · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-recoil-ak-47-war-pig-pink) | 30.0% | $12.57 17.95 coins | 11.4% | 637 | 618.3 | 1.03× |
| [Sealed Graffiti \| Recoil AK-47 (Shark White) graffiti · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-recoil-ak-47-shark-white) | 30.0% | $9.55 13.64 coins | 8.6% | 601 | 618.3 | 0.97× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [✪Tiketas](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/%E2%9C%AATiketas) $36.53 52.18 coins $2,513 3,590 coins 68.80x 2026-11-08 22:01 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) Hidden $36.74 52.49 coins $1,112 1,588 coins 30.25x 2026-11-04 14:42 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) Hidden $36.53 52.18 coins $1,079 1,541 coins 29.53x 2026-11-08 22:42 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-1) Hidden $36.74 52.49 coins $906 1,294 coins 24.65x 2026-11-04 08:45 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-1) Hidden $36.74 52.49 coins $906 1,294 coins 24.65x 2026-11-04 04:14 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-1) Hidden $36.53 52.18 coins $887 1,267 coins 24.28x 2026-11-09 23:05 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-1) [The other other guy](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/The%20other%20other%20guy) $36.53 52.18 coins $887 1,267 coins 24.28x 2026-11-09 06:48 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · legendary · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-paracord-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-black-pearl) Hidden $36.74 52.49 coins $692 989 coins 18.84x 2026-11-05 07:30 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · legendary · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-paracord-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-black-pearl) Hidden $36.74 52.49 coins $692 989 coins 18.84x 2026-11-04 19:34 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · legendary · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-paracord-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-black-pearl) Hidden $36.74 52.49 coins $692 989 coins 18.84x 2026-11-03 16:21 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=easter-gem)

[Sealed Graffiti | Recoil AK-47 (Battle Green) graffiti · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-recoil-ak-47-battle-green) Hidden $36.53 52.18 coins $13.42 19.17 coins 0.37x 2026-11-11 11:20 UTC

[Sealed Graffiti | Recoil AK-47 (Shark White) graffiti · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-recoil-ak-47-shark-white) Hidden $36.53 52.18 coins $9.55 13.64 coins 0.26x 2026-11-11 11:20 UTC

[Sealed Graffiti | Recoil AK-47 (Shark White) graffiti · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-recoil-ak-47-shark-white) Hidden $36.53 52.18 coins $9.55 13.64 coins 0.26x 2026-11-11 11:20 UTC

[Sealed Graffiti | Recoil AK-47 (Shark White) graffiti · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-recoil-ak-47-shark-white) [ElChapo](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/ElChapo) $36.53 52.18 coins $9.55 13.64 coins 0.26x 2026-11-11 11:20 UTC

[Sealed Graffiti | Recoil AK-47 (War Pig Pink) graffiti · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-recoil-ak-47-war-pig-pink) Hidden $36.53 52.18 coins $12.57 17.95 coins 0.34x 2026-11-11 10:23 UTC

[Sealed Graffiti | Recoil AK-47 (Shark White) graffiti · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-recoil-ak-47-shark-white) Hidden $36.53 52.18 coins $9.55 13.64 coins 0.26x 2026-11-11 10:23 UTC

[Sealed Graffiti | Recoil AK-47 (Shark White) graffiti · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-recoil-ak-47-shark-white) Hidden $36.53 52.18 coins $9.55 13.64 coins 0.26x 2026-11-11 10:23 UTC

[Sealed Graffiti | Recoil AK-47 (Battle Green) graffiti · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-recoil-ak-47-battle-green) [Cousin of po](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Cousin%20of%20po) $36.53 52.18 coins $13.42 19.17 coins 0.37x 2026-11-11 10:23 UTC

[Sealed Graffiti | Recoil AK-47 (War Pig Pink) graffiti · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-recoil-ak-47-war-pig-pink) Hidden $36.53 52.18 coins $12.57 17.95 coins 0.34x 2026-11-11 10:23 UTC

[Sealed Graffiti | Recoil AK-47 (Shark White) graffiti · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-recoil-ak-47-shark-white) Hidden $36.53 52.18 coins $9.55 13.64 coins 0.26x 2026-11-11 10:23 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $36.53 | 90.91% | 24 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $36.55 | 90.90% | 24 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $36.74 | 90.90% | 24 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed remarkable 0.0% covert 9.8% legendary 0.2% base 90.0% best hit $2,513 (68.80x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt