--- title: "Ecological case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Ecological ($113.62) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 21 items with odds, observed 83.43% over 35 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/ecological rendered: 2026-11-11T14:02Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Ecological](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/ecological) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Ecological A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/ecological?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/ecological?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/ecological) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/ecological?window=all) Price · $113.62 · 162 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $103.29 from 21 items Observed RTP, 30d · 83.43% · 35 openings, odds method Variance · 1.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 15.2% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 74.9% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 31 openings · below min 30 days · 35 openings · below min since tracking started · 35 openings · below min 38.0% 87.5% 137.0% **Small sample.** 35 openings and 5.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/ecological?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/ecological?window=7d) | 31 | 88.53% ±47.7 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/ecological) | 35 | 83.43% ±44.9 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/ecological?window=all) | 35 | 83.43% ±44.9 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 21 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 35 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 333 | $2,079 2,970 coins | 6.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [StatTrak™ P90 \| Emerald Dragon (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-emerald-dragon-factory-new) | 1 in 143 | $592 846 coins | 4.0% | 1 | 0.2 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 250 | $533 762 coins | 2.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Five-SeveN \| Neon Kimono (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-neon-kimono-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $465 664 coins | 15.7% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.82× | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-emerald) | 1 in 200 | $424 606 coins | 2.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Turtle (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-turtle-factory-new) | 1 in 154 | $398 569 coins | 2.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Bronze Morph (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-bronze-morph-factory-new) | 1 in 182 | $396 565 coins | 2.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 133 | $356 508 coins | 2.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [AWP \| Containment Breach (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $295 421 coins | 2.9% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 125 | $232 332 coins | 1.8% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 50 | $169 242 coins | 3.3% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 25 | $151 215 coins | 5.8% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× | | [Galil AR \| Cerberus (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-cerberus-factory-new) | 10.0% | $121 173 coins | 11.7% | 5 | 3.5 | 1.43× | | [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 33 | $106 151 coins | 3.1% | 2 | 1.1 | 1.90× | | [★ Hand Wraps \| CAUTION! (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-caution-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $101 144 coins | 4.9% | 0 | 1.8 | 0.00× | | [★ Nomad Knife \| Boreal Forest (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-boreal-forest-well-worn) | 1 in 15 | $63.16 90.23 coins | 4.0% | 2 | 2.3 | 0.88× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Emerald Quartz (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-emerald-quartz-well-worn) | 12.0% | $59.14 84.48 coins | 6.9% | 7 | 4.2 | 1.67× | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Arboreal (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-arboreal-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $55.14 78.77 coins | 3.7% | 3 | 2.5 | 1.22× | | [Souvenir Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-nuclear-garden-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $47.80 68.28 coins | 3.7% | 2 | 2.8 | 0.71× | | [Dual Berettas \| Cobra Strike (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobra-strike-field-tested) | 14.0% | $43.81 62.59 coins | 5.9% | 3 | 4.9 | 0.61× | | [Dual Berettas \| Emerald (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-emerald-factory-new) | 19.4% | $27.90 39.86 coins | 5.2% | 8 | 6.8 | 1.18× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [StatTrak™ P90 | Emerald Dragon (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-emerald-dragon-factory-new) [FaZeupgrandpa](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/FaZeupgrandpa) $116 166 coins $592 846 coins 5.11x 2026-11-04 17:31 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=ecological) [Galil AR | Cerberus (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-cerberus-factory-new) Hidden $114 162 coins $121 173 coins 1.07x 2026-11-10 00:09 UTC [Dual Berettas | Cobra Strike (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobra-strike-field-tested) Hidden $114 162 coins $43.81 62.59 coins 0.39x 2026-11-10 00:09 UTC [Dual Berettas | Cobra Strike (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobra-strike-field-tested) Hidden $114 162 coins $43.81 62.59 coins 0.39x 2026-11-10 00:09 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Emerald Quartz (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-emerald-quartz-well-worn) Hidden $114 162 coins $59.14 84.48 coins 0.52x 2026-11-10 00:09 UTC [★ Hand Wraps | Arboreal (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-arboreal-minimal-wear) Hidden $114 162 coins $55.14 78.77 coins 0.49x 2026-11-10 00:09 UTC [Souvenir Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-nuclear-garden-factory-new) [karma](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/karma) $114 162 coins $47.80 68.28 coins 0.42x 2026-11-10 00:09 UTC [Dual Berettas | Emerald (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-emerald-factory-new) Hidden $114 162 coins $27.90 39.86 coins 0.25x 2026-11-08 23:58 UTC [Galil AR | Cerberus (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-cerberus-factory-new) [OTOMAG](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/OTOMAG) $114 162 coins $121 173 coins 1.07x 2026-11-08 23:58 UTC [Galil AR | Cerberus (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-cerberus-factory-new) Hidden $116 166 coins $121 173 coins 1.04x 2026-11-08 11:49 UTC [Dual Berettas | Emerald (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-emerald-factory-new) [LongKoala](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/LongKoala) $116 166 coins $27.98 39.97 coins 0.24x 2026-11-08 11:49 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $114 | 90.91% | 21 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $114 | 90.91% | 21 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $116 | 90.91% | 21 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 19.3% epic 0.7% restricted 21.5% extraordinary 13.2% mil spec 31.4% classified 14.0% best hit $592 (5.11x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt