--- title: "Edens Garden case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Edens Garden ($37.56) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.92% from 23 items with odds, observed 88.37% over 4,239 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/edens-garden rendered: 2026-11-11T18:56Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Edens Garden](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/edens-garden) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Edens Garden A case on CSGORoll (20%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/edens-garden?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/edens-garden?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/edens-garden) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/edens-garden?window=all) Price · $37.56 · 53.65 coins Advertised RTP · 90.92% · EV $34.14 from 23 items Observed RTP, 30d · 88.37% · 4,239 openings, odds method Variance · 31.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 80 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.7% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 301 openings · below min 7 days · 93.69% ±18.43 3,447 openings 30 days · 88.37% ±16.60 4,239 openings since tracking started · 88.37% ±16.60 4,239 openings 2.0% 65.8% 129.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/edens-garden?window=24h) | 301 | 65.67% ±63.0 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/edens-garden?window=7d) | 3,447 | 93.69% ±18.4 | +0.3σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/edens-garden) | 4,239 | 88.37% ±16.6 | −0.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/edens-garden?window=all) | 4,239 | 88.37% ±16.6 | −0.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 23 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,239 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $5,684 8,120 coins | 3.3% | 3 | 0.8 | — | | [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-well-worn) | 1 in 20,000 | $5,023 7,175 coins | 0.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [AWP \| Medusa (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-factory-new) | 1 in 2,500 | $4,946 7,065 coins | 5.8% | 2 | 1.7 | 1.18× | | [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,000 | $4,263 6,090 coins | 6.2% | 1 | 2.1 | 0.47× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Arid (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-arid-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $2,664 3,805 coins | 0.8% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [MP9 \| Wild Lily (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $2,069 2,955 coins | 6.1% | 5 | 4.2 | 1.18× | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Fade (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,333 | $1,703 2,433 coins | 3.7% | 4 | 3.2 | 1.26× | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Emerald Web (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,472 2,103 coins | 2.2% | 1 | 2.1 | 0.47× | | [Glock-18 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $1,165 1,664 coins | 6.8% | 6 | 8.5 | 0.71× | | [AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-hydroponic-well-worn) | 1 in 200 | $811 1,159 coins | 11.9% | 15 | 21.2 | 0.71× | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · legendary · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 500 | $673 961 coins | 3.9% | 3 | 8.5 | 0.35× | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-emerald) | 1 in 333 | $499 713 coins | 4.4% | 9 | 12.7 | 0.71× | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Turtle (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-turtle-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $398 569 coins | 5.8% | 22 | 21.2 | 1.04× | | [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $332 474 coins | 4.9% | 19 | 21.2 | 0.90× | | [Glock-18 \| Synth Leaf (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-synth-leaf-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $293 418 coins | 4.3% | 30 | 21.2 | 1.42× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 100 | $157 224 coins | 4.6% | 40 | 42.4 | 0.94× | | [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-1) | 1 in 80 | $113 162 coins | 4.2% | 48 | 53.0 | 0.91× | | [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Jade (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-jade-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $63.18 90.26 coins | 5.6% | 123 | 127.2 | 0.97× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-forest-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $50.24 71.77 coins | 5.9% | 176 | 169.6 | 1.04× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $42.19 60.27 coins | 8.6% | 288 | 296.7 | 0.97× | | [Souvenir AWP \| Pit Viper (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-pit-viper-minimal-wear) | 1 in 143 | $13.55 19.35 coins | 0.3% | 27 | 29.7 | 0.91× | | [G3SG1 \| Jungle Dashed (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-jungle-dashed-minimal-wear) | 40.0% | $0.02 0.03 coins | 0.0% | 1,657 | 1695.6 | 0.98× | | [P250 \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 40.0% | $0.02 0.03 coins | 0.0% | 1,760 | 1695.6 | 1.04× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) Hidden $37.93 54.19 coins $5,775 8,250 coins 152.2x 2026-11-08 00:32 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) Hidden $37.93 54.19 coins $5,775 8,250 coins 152.2x 2026-11-06 18:09 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) Hidden $37.93 54.19 coins $5,775 8,250 coins 152.2x 2026-11-04 21:29 UTC [AWP | Medusa (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-factory-new) Hidden $37.93 54.19 coins $4,960 7,085 coins 130.7x 2026-11-05 21:00 UTC [AWP | Medusa (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-factory-new) Hidden $37.56 53.65 coins $4,946 7,065 coins 131.7x 2026-11-10 03:19 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-battle-scarred) Hidden $37.56 53.65 coins $4,263 6,090 coins 113.5x 2026-11-09 20:03 UTC [MP9 | Wild Lily (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-minimal-wear) [Matt](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Matt) $37.72 53.89 coins $2,069 2,955 coins 54.83x 2026-11-08 18:01 UTC [MP9 | Wild Lily (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-minimal-wear) Hidden $37.93 54.19 coins $2,058 2,940 coins 54.25x 2026-11-07 23:40 UTC [MP9 | Wild Lily (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-minimal-wear) Hidden $37.93 54.19 coins $2,058 2,940 coins 54.25x 2026-11-07 08:21 UTC [MP9 | Wild Lily (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-minimal-wear) Hidden $37.93 54.19 coins $2,058 2,940 coins 54.25x 2026-11-07 06:24 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=edens-garden) [G3SG1 | Jungle Dashed (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-jungle-dashed-minimal-wear) Hidden $37.56 53.65 coins $0.02 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:51 UTC [P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-boreal-forest-field-tested) Hidden $37.56 53.65 coins $0.02 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:51 UTC [P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-boreal-forest-field-tested) Hidden $37.56 53.65 coins $0.02 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:51 UTC [G3SG1 | Jungle Dashed (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-jungle-dashed-minimal-wear) [Petrrr csgoroll.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Petrrr%20csgoroll.com) $37.56 53.65 coins $0.02 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:51 UTC [G3SG1 | Jungle Dashed (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-jungle-dashed-minimal-wear) Hidden $37.56 53.65 coins $0.02 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:51 UTC [P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-boreal-forest-field-tested) Hidden $37.56 53.65 coins $0.02 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:51 UTC [G3SG1 | Jungle Dashed (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-jungle-dashed-minimal-wear) Hidden $37.56 53.65 coins $0.02 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 17:08 UTC [P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-boreal-forest-field-tested) Hidden $37.56 53.65 coins $0.02 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 17:08 UTC [G3SG1 | Jungle Dashed (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-jungle-dashed-minimal-wear) Hidden $37.56 53.65 coins $0.02 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 17:08 UTC [★ Broken Fang Gloves | Jade (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-jade-field-tested) Hidden $37.56 53.65 coins $63.18 90.26 coins 1.68x 2026-11-11 17:08 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 9 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $37.56 | 90.92% | 23 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $37.56 | 90.91% | 23 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $37.81 | 90.90% | 23 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $37.93 | 90.91% | 23 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed legendary 0.2% covert 14.2% extraordinary 3.6% classified 0.6% restricted 1.4% consumer 80.0% best hit $5,775 (152.2x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.92 on average: an expected loss of $9.08 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt