---
title: "Egg smash case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Egg smash ($0.99) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.63% from 15 items with odds, observed 87.43% over 60.6K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/egg-smash
rendered: 2026-11-11T16:59Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Egg smash](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/egg-smash)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Egg smash

A case on CSGORoll (5%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/egg-smash?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/egg-smash?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/egg-smash) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/egg-smash?window=all)

Price · $0.99 · 1.42 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.63% · EV $0.90 from 15 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 87.43% · 60.6K openings, odds method

Variance · 708.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 1,000 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 97.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 90.26% ±68.59 5,783 openings

7 days · 79.46% ±23.62 51.5K openings

30 days · 87.43% ±21.84 60.6K openings

since tracking started · 87.43% ±21.84 60.6K openings

21.0% 90.3% 159.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/egg-smash?window=24h) | 5,783 | 90.26% ±68.6 | −0.0σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/egg-smash?window=7d) | 51.5K | 79.46% ±23.6 | −1.0σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/egg-smash) | 60.6K | 87.43% ±21.8 | −0.3σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/egg-smash?window=all) | 60.6K | 87.43% ±21.8 | −0.3σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 60.7K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [MP9 \| Wild Lily (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-well-worn) | 1 in 5,263 | $1,844 2,635 coins | 38.9% | 10 | 11.5 | 0.87× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100,000 | $1,067 1,524 coins | 1.2% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-fairy-tale-factory-new) | 1 in 1,250 | $206 294 coins | 18.3% | 52 | 48.6 | 1.07× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-snack-attack-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $91.70 131 coins | 10.2% | 59 | 60.7 | 0.97× |
| [StatTrak™ Nova \| Bloomstick (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-bloomstick-well-worn) | 1 in 667 | $13.50 19.28 coins | 2.2% | 70 | 91.0 | 0.77× |
| [StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Melondrama (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-dual-berettas-melondrama-minimal-wear) | 1 in 286 | $6.24 8.91 coins | 2.4% | 207 | 212.4 | 0.97× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Flora Carnivora (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-flora-carnivora-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $2.45 3.5 coins | 1.4% | 319 | 303.4 | 1.05× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Tacticat (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tacticat-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $2.20 3.14 coins | 2.4% | 599 | 606.9 | 0.99× |
| [StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Bamboozle (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-bamboozle-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $0.88 1.25 coins | 2.9% | 1,713 | 1820.7 | 0.94× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Neoqueen (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-neoqueen-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $0.73 1.05 coins | 4.1% | 3,082 | 3034.5 | 1.02× |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Aloha (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-aloha-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $0.49 0.7 coins | 4.4% | 4,985 | 4855.1 | 1.03× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Morris (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-morris-field-tested) | 17.5% | $0.28 0.4 coins | 5.4% | 10,592 | 10620.6 | 1.00× |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Scrawl (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-scrawl-minimal-wear) | 16.8% | $0.19 0.27 coins | 3.5% | 10,263 | 10195.8 | 1.01× |
| [G3SG1 \| Green Apple (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-green-apple-minimal-wear) | 22.5% | $0.08 0.12 coins | 2.1% | 13,491 | 13655.0 | 0.99× |
| [Galil AR \| Robin's Egg (Battle-Scarred) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-robins-egg-battle-scarred) | 25.0% | $0.02 0.03 coins | 0.6% | 15,246 | 15172.3 | 1.00× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[MP9 | Wild Lily (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-well-worn) [Ri0T](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Ri0T) $0.99 1.42 coins $1,844 2,635 coins 1,856x 2026-11-10 03:52 UTC

[MP9 | Wild Lily (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-well-worn) Hidden $0.98 1.4 coins $1,844 2,635 coins 1,882x 2026-11-08 19:41 UTC

[MP9 | Wild Lily (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-well-worn) [PoRRo-MoRRo](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/PoRRo-MoRRo) $0.94 1.35 coins $1,844 2,635 coins 1,952x 2026-11-06 21:05 UTC

[MP9 | Wild Lily (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-well-worn) Hidden $0.94 1.35 coins $1,844 2,635 coins 1,952x 2026-11-06 19:41 UTC

[MP9 | Wild Lily (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-well-worn) Hidden $0.94 1.35 coins $1,844 2,635 coins 1,952x 2026-11-06 17:38 UTC

[MP9 | Wild Lily (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-well-worn) [PoRRo-MoRRo](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/PoRRo-MoRRo) $0.94 1.35 coins $1,844 2,635 coins 1,952x 2026-11-06 17:18 UTC

[MP9 | Wild Lily (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-well-worn) Hidden $0.94 1.35 coins $1,844 2,635 coins 1,952x 2026-11-04 02:24 UTC

[MP9 | Wild Lily (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-well-worn) [train](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/train) $0.94 1.35 coins $1,844 2,635 coins 1,952x 2026-11-04 02:09 UTC

[MP9 | Wild Lily (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-well-worn) Hidden $0.94 1.35 coins $1,844 2,635 coins 1,952x 2026-11-04 00:25 UTC

[MP9 | Wild Lily (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-well-worn) Hidden $0.94 1.35 coins $1,844 2,635 coins 1,952x 2026-11-03 17:54 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=egg-smash)

[Sawed-Off | Morris (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-morris-field-tested) Hidden $0.99 1.42 coins $0.28 0.4 coins 0.28x 2026-11-11 16:56 UTC

[StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Scrawl (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-scrawl-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.99 1.42 coins $0.19 0.27 coins 0.19x 2026-11-11 16:56 UTC

[Galil AR | Robin's Egg (Battle-Scarred) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-robins-egg-battle-scarred) Hidden $0.99 1.42 coins $0.02 0.03 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 16:56 UTC

[StatTrak™ P90 | Neoqueen (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-neoqueen-minimal-wear) [TUU KOITTAA](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/TUU%20KOITTAA) $0.99 1.42 coins $0.73 1.05 coins 0.74x 2026-11-11 16:56 UTC

[Galil AR | Robin's Egg (Battle-Scarred) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-robins-egg-battle-scarred) Hidden $0.99 1.42 coins $0.02 0.03 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 16:56 UTC

[StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Scrawl (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-scrawl-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.99 1.42 coins $0.19 0.27 coins 0.19x 2026-11-11 16:56 UTC

[G3SG1 | Green Apple (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-green-apple-minimal-wear) [TUU KOITTAA](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/TUU%20KOITTAA) $0.99 1.42 coins $0.08 0.12 coins 0.08x 2026-11-11 16:56 UTC

[G3SG1 | Green Apple (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-green-apple-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.99 1.42 coins $0.08 0.12 coins 0.08x 2026-11-11 16:56 UTC

[StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Scrawl (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-scrawl-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.99 1.42 coins $0.19 0.27 coins 0.19x 2026-11-11 16:55 UTC

[G3SG1 | Green Apple (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-green-apple-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.99 1.42 coins $0.08 0.12 coins 0.08x 2026-11-11 16:55 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 9 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $0.99 | 90.63% | 15 |
| 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $0.99 | 91.11% | 15 |
| 9 Nov, 00:04 UTC | $0.98 | 90.72% | 15 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $0.98 | 90.72% | 15 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $0.98 | 90.84% | 15 |
| 5 Nov, 22:45 UTC | $0.94 | 91.22% | 15 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.94 | 91.22% | 15 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed classified 0.7% extraordinary 0.0% restricted 9.5% mil spec 42.3% industrial 22.5% common 25.0% best hit $1,844 (1,856x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.6% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.63 on average: an expected loss of $9.37 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt