---
title: "Eggcellent case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Eggcellent ($23.71) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 21 items with odds, observed 88.10% over 1,604 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/eggcellent
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:10Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Eggcellent](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/eggcellent)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Eggcellent

A case on CSGORoll (25%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/eggcellent?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/eggcellent?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/eggcellent) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/eggcellent?window=all)

Price · $23.71 · 33.87 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $21.55 from 21 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 88.10% · 1,604 openings, odds method

Variance · 8.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 17 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 75.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 84.28% ±44.89 162 openings

7 days · 81.92% ±15.49 1,373 openings

30 days · 88.10% ±14.34 1,604 openings

since tracking started · 88.10% ±14.34 1,604 openings

38.5% 84.3% 130.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/eggcellent?window=24h) | 162 | 84.28% ±44.9 | −0.3σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/eggcellent?window=7d) | 1,373 | 81.92% ±15.5 | −1.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/eggcellent) | 1,604 | 88.10% ±14.3 | −0.4σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/eggcellent?window=all) | 1,604 | 88.10% ±14.3 | −0.4σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 21 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,604 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-4) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,584 2,263 coins | 0.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Sticker \| Team LDLC.com \| Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-ldlc-com-katowice-2014) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,130 1,614 coins | 5.2% | 3 | 1.6 | 1.87× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Tiger Strike (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-tiger-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 1,667 | $900 1,286 coins | 2.5% | 1 | 1.0 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Diamondback (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-diamondback-factory-new) | 1 in 3,333 | $627 896 coins | 0.9% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 500 | $509 727 coins | 4.7% | 0 | 3.2 | 0.00× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Neon Kimono (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-neon-kimono-field-tested) | 1 in 400 | $452 646 coins | 5.2% | 5 | 4.0 | 1.25× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-4) | 1 in 333 | $442 631 coins | 6.1% | 1 | 4.8 | 0.21× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Fennec Fox (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-fennec-fox-factory-new) | 1 in 667 | $291 416 coins | 2.0% | 2 | 2.4 | 0.83× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-vaporwave-factory-new) | 1 in 222 | $270 386 coins | 5.6% | 7 | 7.2 | 0.97× |
| [Sticker \| OpTic Gaming (Foil) \| Atlanta 2017 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-optic-gaming-foil-atlanta-2017) | 1 in 133 | $174 248 coins | 6.0% | 10 | 12.0 | 0.83× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-1) | 1 in 100 | $142 203 coins | 6.6% | 16 | 16.0 | 1.00× |
| [AWP \| Corticera (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-corticera-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $112 160 coins | 2.6% | 3 | 8.0 | 0.37× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nomad-knife-boreal-forest-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $95.20 136 coins | 8.8% | 45 | 32.1 | 1.40× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-hyper-beast-battle-scarred) | 1 in 37 | $60.72 86.75 coins | 7.6% | 43 | 43.3 | 0.99× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Cobra Strike (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobra-strike-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $45.89 65.55 coins | 8.5% | 72 | 64.2 | 1.12× |
| [Sticker \| B1ad3 (Foil) \| Atlanta 2017 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-b1ad3-foil-atlanta-2017) | 1 in 17 | $45.46 64.94 coins | 12.7% | 102 | 96.2 | 1.06× |
| [AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-outsiders-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $43.06 61.52 coins | 3.0% | 26 | 24.1 | 1.08× |
| [MAG-7 \| Prism Terrace (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-prism-terrace-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $23.98 34.26 coins | 5.6% | 81 | 80.2 | 1.01× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Umbral Rabbit (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-umbral-rabbit-factory-new) | 20.0% | $3.73 5.33 coins | 3.5% | 336 | 320.8 | 1.05× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Umbral Rabbit (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-umbral-rabbit-minimal-wear) | 25.0% | $1.34 1.92 coins | 1.6% | 407 | 401.0 | 1.01× |
| [Glock-18 \| Umbral Rabbit (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-umbral-rabbit-battle-scarred) | 30.0% | $0.32 0.45 coins | 0.4% | 444 | 481.2 | 0.92× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[Sticker | Team LDLC.com | Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-ldlc-com-katowice-2014) Hidden $24.16 34.51 coins $1,130 1,614 coins 46.77x 2026-11-06 20:36 UTC

[Sticker | Team LDLC.com | Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-ldlc-com-katowice-2014) Hidden $24.16 34.51 coins $1,130 1,614 coins 46.77x 2026-11-06 11:49 UTC

[Sticker | Team LDLC.com | Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-ldlc-com-katowice-2014) Hidden $24.16 34.51 coins $1,130 1,614 coins 46.77x 2026-11-03 22:49 UTC

[★ Specialist Gloves | Tiger Strike (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-tiger-strike-factory-new) Hidden $24.16 34.51 coins $944 1,348 coins 39.06x 2026-11-03 01:40 UTC

[★ Driver Gloves | Diamondback (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-diamondback-factory-new) Hidden $24.16 34.51 coins $739 1,056 coins 30.60x 2026-11-04 06:17 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=eggcellent)

[StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbit (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-umbral-rabbit-minimal-wear) Hidden $23.71 33.87 coins $1.34 1.92 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 08:12 UTC

[StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbit (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-umbral-rabbit-factory-new) Hidden $23.71 33.87 coins $3.73 5.33 coins 0.16x 2026-11-11 08:12 UTC

[StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbit (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-umbral-rabbit-minimal-wear) Hidden $23.71 33.87 coins $1.34 1.92 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 08:12 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Fennec Fox (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-fennec-fox-factory-new) Hidden $23.71 33.87 coins $291 416 coins 12.28x 2026-11-11 08:12 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife | Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nomad-knife-boreal-forest-minimal-wear) Hidden $23.71 33.87 coins $95.20 136 coins 4.02x 2026-11-11 08:12 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Cobra Strike (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobra-strike-well-worn) [BigSturg](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/BigSturg) $23.71 33.87 coins $45.89 65.55 coins 1.94x 2026-11-11 08:12 UTC

[StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbit (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-umbral-rabbit-minimal-wear) Hidden $23.71 33.87 coins $1.34 1.92 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 05:48 UTC

[StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbit (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-umbral-rabbit-minimal-wear) Hidden $23.71 33.87 coins $1.34 1.92 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 05:48 UTC

[StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbit (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-umbral-rabbit-factory-new) Hidden $23.71 33.87 coins $3.73 5.33 coins 0.16x 2026-11-11 05:48 UTC

[Sticker | B1ad3 (Foil) | Atlanta 2017 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-b1ad3-foil-atlanta-2017) Hidden $23.71 33.87 coins $45.46 64.94 coins 1.92x 2026-11-11 05:48 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $23.71 | 90.91% | 21 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $23.71 | 90.92% | 21 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $23.74 | 90.92% | 21 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $24.16 | 90.92% | 21 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 6.2% high 0.1% extraordinary 0.1% restricted 80.3% classified 4.7% legendary 0.4% exotic 6.8% rare 1.5% best hit $1,130 (46.77x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt