--- title: "Equation case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Equation ($102.81) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 12 items with odds, observed 94.04% over 427 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/equation rendered: 2026-11-11T13:23Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Equation](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/equation) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Equation A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/equation?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/equation?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/equation) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/equation?window=all) Price · $102.81 · 147 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $93.46 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 94.04% · 427 openings, odds method Variance · 0.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 28.5% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 62.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 29 openings · below min 7 days · 91.56% ±12.11 195 openings 30 days · 94.04% ±8.18 427 openings since tracking started · 94.04% ±8.18 427 openings 49.5% 81.7% 114.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/equation?window=24h) | 29 | 81.63% ±31.5 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/equation?window=7d) | 195 | 91.56% ±12.1 | +0.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/equation) | 427 | 94.04% ±8.18 | +0.7σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/equation?window=all) | 427 | 94.04% ±8.18 | +0.7σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 427 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) | 1 in 67 | $339 484 coins | 5.4% | 11 | 6.4 | 1.72× | | [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 27.0% | $209 298 coins | 60.3% | 118 | 115.3 | 1.02× | | [★ Bayonet \| Night (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-night-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $181 258 coins | 5.8% | 14 | 12.8 | 1.09× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-blue-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $148 211 coins | 7.9% | 19 | 21.4 | 0.89× | | [USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $104 149 coins | 1.7% | 1 | 6.4 | 0.16× | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Convoy (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-convoy-well-worn) | 1 in 17 | $98.00 140 coins | 6.3% | 26 | 25.6 | 1.01× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Cartel (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-cartel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $52.09 74.42 coins | 1.7% | 15 | 12.8 | 1.17× | | [P2000 \| Chainmail (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-chainmail-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $46.51 66.44 coins | 4.0% | 31 | 34.2 | 0.91× | | [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-well-worn) | 1 in 17 | $39.73 56.76 coins | 2.6% | 19 | 25.6 | 0.74× | | [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-cyrex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $16.34 23.34 coins | 0.9% | 31 | 21.4 | 1.45× | | [P250 \| Mehndi (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-mehndi-well-worn) | 1 in 13 | $14.21 20.3 coins | 1.2% | 33 | 34.2 | 0.97× | | [P250 \| Cartel (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cartel-battle-scarred) | 26.0% | $8.42 12.03 coins | 2.3% | 109 | 111.0 | 0.98× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=equation) [StatTrak™ SG 553 | Cyrex (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-cyrex-minimal-wear) Hidden $103 147 coins $16.34 23.34 coins 0.16x 2026-11-11 12:28 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) [Jhon csgoroll.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Jhon%20csgoroll.com) $103 147 coins $339 484 coins 3.30x 2026-11-11 12:28 UTC [Desert Eagle | Code Red (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-well-worn) [Vnx6d](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Vnx6d) $103 147 coins $39.73 56.76 coins 0.39x 2026-11-10 15:03 UTC [P250 | Cartel (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cartel-battle-scarred) Hidden $103 147 coins $8.42 12.03 coins 0.08x 2026-11-10 15:03 UTC [StatTrak™ SG 553 | Cyrex (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-cyrex-minimal-wear) Hidden $103 147 coins $16.34 23.34 coins 0.16x 2026-11-10 15:03 UTC [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-hyper-beast-field-tested) [Vnx6d](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Vnx6d) $103 147 coins $209 298 coins 2.03x 2026-11-10 15:02 UTC [Desert Eagle | Code Red (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-well-worn) Hidden $103 147 coins $39.73 56.76 coins 0.39x 2026-11-10 15:02 UTC [P2000 | Chainmail (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-chainmail-factory-new) Hidden $103 147 coins $46.51 66.44 coins 0.45x 2026-11-10 15:02 UTC [P250 | Cartel (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cartel-battle-scarred) [Vnx6d](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Vnx6d) $103 147 coins $8.42 12.03 coins 0.08x 2026-11-10 15:00 UTC [P2000 | Chainmail (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-chainmail-factory-new) Hidden $103 147 coins $46.51 66.44 coins 0.45x 2026-11-10 15:00 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $103 | 90.91% | 12 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $104 | 90.91% | 12 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $104 | 90.91% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 44.0% extraordinary 6.0% classified 42.0% mil spec 8.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt