--- title: "Esoteric case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Esoteric ($8.23) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.94% from 16 items with odds, observed 85.40% over 8,452 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/esoteric rendered: 2026-11-11T13:47Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Esoteric](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/esoteric) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Esoteric A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/esoteric?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/esoteric?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/esoteric) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/esoteric?window=all) Price · $8.23 · 11.75 coins Advertised RTP · 90.94% · EV $7.48 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 85.40% · 8,452 openings, odds method Variance · 49.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 83 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 93.2% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 86.69% ±40.15 1,172 openings 7 days · 88.28% ±16.27 7,062 openings 30 days · 85.40% ±14.86 8,452 openings since tracking started · 85.40% ±14.86 8,452 openings 46.0% 86.8% 127.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/esoteric?window=24h) | 1,172 | 86.69% ±40.2 | −0.2σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/esoteric?window=7d) | 7,062 | 88.28% ±16.3 | −0.3σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/esoteric) | 8,452 | 85.40% ±14.9 | −0.7σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/esoteric?window=all) | 8,452 | 85.40% ±14.9 | −0.7σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8,478 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Case Hardened (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 2,500 | $2,205 3,150 coins | 11.8% | 2 | 3.4 | 0.59× | | [★ Survival Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · legendary · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 1,000 | $638 912 coins | 8.5% | 11 | 8.5 | 1.30× | | [AWP \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,429 | $566 809 coins | 5.3% | 2 | 5.9 | 0.34× | | [★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) StatTrak · knife · legendary · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nomad-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 667 | $382 545 coins | 7.7% | 9 | 12.7 | 0.71× | | [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-1) | 1 in 286 | $333 475 coins | 15.6% | 29 | 29.7 | 0.98× | | [Souvenir Five-SeveN \| Fall Hazard (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-five-seven-fall-hazard-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $167 238 coins | 11.1% | 56 | 42.4 | 1.32× | | [Souvenir SG 553 \| Hazard Pay (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-sg-553-hazard-pay-field-tested) | 1 in 185 | $83.30 119 coins | 6.0% | 46 | 45.8 | 1.00× | | [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-fowl-play-factory-new) | 1 in 133 | $40.56 57.94 coins | 4.1% | 54 | 63.6 | 0.85× | | [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $15.07 21.53 coins | 2.0% | 88 | 84.8 | 1.04× | | [StatTrak™ G3SG1 \| Flux (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-g3sg1-flux-battle-scarred) | 1 in 30 | $10.53 15.04 coins | 4.6% | 267 | 279.8 | 0.95× | | [Sticker \| Magic Rush Ball (Lenticular) sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-magic-rush-ball-lenticular) | 1 in 14 | $7.83 11.18 coins | 7.3% | 554 | 593.5 | 0.93× | | [Sticker \| Opal Flick (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-opal-flick-holo) | 1 in 59 | $7.05 10.07 coins | 1.6% | 149 | 144.1 | 1.03× | | [R8 Revolver \| Crazy 8 (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crazy-8-factory-new) | 12.0% | $2.25 3.21 coins | 3.6% | 996 | 1017.4 | 0.98× | | [Sticker \| Wildcard (Holo) \| Austin 2025 sticker · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-wildcard-holo-austin-2025) | 16.5% | $1.58 2.26 coins | 3.5% | 1,389 | 1398.9 | 0.99× | | [Dual Berettas \| Sweet Little Angels (Battle-Scarred) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-sweet-little-angels-battle-scarred) | 25.0% | $1.36 1.94 coins | 4.5% | 2,155 | 2119.5 | 1.02× | | [Sticker \| Hypnoteyes (Holo) sticker · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hypnoteyes-holo) | 31.0% | $0.66 0.94 coins | 2.7% | 2,671 | 2628.2 | 1.02× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Case Hardened (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-case-hardened-factory-new) [OldSchoolBoys93](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/OldSchoolBoys93) $8.24 11.77 coins $2,205 3,150 coins 267.6x 2026-11-08 22:13 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Case Hardened (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-case-hardened-factory-new) [JoeyPuddles](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/JoeyPuddles) $8.34 11.91 coins $2,205 3,150 coins 264.5x 2026-11-05 17:00 UTC [★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · legendary · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) [n0va](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/n0va) $8.23 11.75 coins $638 912 coins 77.62x 2026-11-11 00:59 UTC [★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · legendary · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $8.23 11.75 coins $638 912 coins 77.62x 2026-11-10 22:56 UTC [★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · legendary · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) [ArmaturaShtrejt](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/ArmaturaShtrejt) $8.23 11.75 coins $638 912 coins 77.62x 2026-11-10 17:19 UTC [★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · legendary · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $8.23 11.75 coins $638 912 coins 77.62x 2026-11-10 03:06 UTC [★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · legendary · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) [Pezar](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Pezar) $8.23 11.75 coins $638 912 coins 77.62x 2026-11-09 07:32 UTC [★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · legendary · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $8.31 11.87 coins $638 912 coins 76.83x 2026-11-08 16:59 UTC [★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · legendary · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $8.33 11.9 coins $638 912 coins 76.64x 2026-11-06 18:56 UTC [★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · legendary · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) [Tiny Tim.CsgoRoll.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Tiny%20Tim.CsgoRoll.com) $8.33 11.9 coins $638 912 coins 76.64x 2026-11-06 03:43 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=esoteric) [Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels (Battle-Scarred) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-sweet-little-angels-battle-scarred) [Tunska](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Tunska) $8.23 11.75 coins $1.36 1.94 coins 0.17x 2026-11-11 13:46 UTC [Sticker | Magic Rush Ball (Lenticular) sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-magic-rush-ball-lenticular) Hidden $8.23 11.75 coins $7.83 11.18 coins 0.95x 2026-11-11 13:46 UTC [Sticker | Magic Rush Ball (Lenticular) sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-magic-rush-ball-lenticular) Hidden $8.23 11.75 coins $7.83 11.18 coins 0.95x 2026-11-11 13:46 UTC [Sticker | Hypnoteyes (Holo) sticker · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hypnoteyes-holo) Hidden $8.23 11.75 coins $0.66 0.94 coins 0.08x 2026-11-11 13:41 UTC [Sticker | Hypnoteyes (Holo) sticker · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hypnoteyes-holo) Hidden $8.23 11.75 coins $0.66 0.94 coins 0.08x 2026-11-11 13:41 UTC [Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels (Battle-Scarred) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-sweet-little-angels-battle-scarred) Hidden $8.23 11.75 coins $1.36 1.94 coins 0.17x 2026-11-11 13:41 UTC [Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels (Battle-Scarred) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-sweet-little-angels-battle-scarred) [Tunska](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Tunska) $8.23 11.75 coins $1.36 1.94 coins 0.17x 2026-11-11 13:41 UTC [Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels (Battle-Scarred) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-sweet-little-angels-battle-scarred) Hidden $8.23 11.75 coins $1.36 1.94 coins 0.17x 2026-11-11 13:37 UTC [Sticker | Hypnoteyes (Holo) sticker · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hypnoteyes-holo) Hidden $8.23 11.75 coins $0.66 0.94 coins 0.08x 2026-11-11 13:37 UTC [Sticker | Hypnoteyes (Holo) sticker · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hypnoteyes-holo) Hidden $8.23 11.75 coins $0.66 0.94 coins 0.08x 2026-11-11 13:37 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $8.23 | 90.94% | 16 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $8.31 | 90.88% | 16 | | 5 Nov, 22:45 UTC | $8.33 | 90.94% | 16 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $8.34 | 90.93% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.5% legendary 0.3% classified 2.8% #d32ce6 3.3% extraordinary 7.0% remarkable 1.7% restricted 12.0% uncommon 41.5% common 31.0% best hit $2,205 (267.6x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.94 on average: an expected loss of $9.06 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt