--- title: "Eureka case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Eureka ($10.84) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.89% from 15 items with odds, observed 94.15% over 3,082 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/eureka rendered: 2026-11-11T13:11Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Eureka](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/eureka) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Eureka A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/eureka?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/eureka?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/eureka) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/eureka?window=all) Price · $10.84 · 15.49 coins Advertised RTP · 90.89% · EV $9.86 from 15 items Observed RTP, 30d · 94.15% · 3,082 openings, odds method Variance · 5.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 14 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 85.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 86.64% ±25.00 346 openings 7 days · 93.14% ±8.92 2,717 openings 30 days · 94.15% ±8.37 3,082 openings since tracking started · 94.15% ±8.37 3,082 openings 61.0% 86.8% 112.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/eureka?window=24h) | 346 | 86.64% ±25.0 | −0.3σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/eureka?window=7d) | 2,717 | 93.14% ±8.92 | +0.5σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/eureka) | 3,082 | 94.15% ±8.37 | +0.7σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/eureka?window=all) | 3,082 | 94.15% ±8.37 | +0.7σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,087 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [M4A4 \| Hellfire (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $279 398 coins | 2.8% | 2 | 3.1 | 0.65× | | [AK-47 \| Jet Set (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jet-set-well-worn) | 1 in 500 | $277 396 coins | 5.6% | 10 | 6.2 | 1.62× | | [USP-S \| Blueprint (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blueprint-factory-new) | 1 in 63 | $91.70 131 coins | 14.9% | 49 | 49.4 | 0.99× | | [Sawed-Off \| The Kraken (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-the-kraken-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $79.80 114 coins | 40.5% | 158 | 154.4 | 1.02× | | [P90 \| Death by Kitty (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-death-by-kitty-field-tested) | 1 in 333 | $78.40 112 coins | 2.4% | 7 | 9.3 | 0.76× | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Emperor (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-the-emperor-battle-scarred) | 1 in 125 | $59.74 85.34 coins | 4.8% | 26 | 24.7 | 1.05× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Crimson Web (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $18.20 26 coins | 7.4% | 119 | 123.5 | 0.96× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Xiangliu (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-xiangliu-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $12.11 17.3 coins | 3.1% | 99 | 77.2 | 1.28× | | [Five-SeveN \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $9.56 13.66 coins | 5.8% | 202 | 185.2 | 1.09× | | [USP-S \| Cortex (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $6.26 8.95 coins | 6.0% | 284 | 293.3 | 0.97× | | [Glock-18 \| Blue Fissure (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-blue-fissure-minimal-wear) | 11.0% | $3.93 5.61 coins | 4.4% | 325 | 339.6 | 0.96× | | [MP9 \| Dart (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-dart-minimal-wear) | 12.0% | $1.00 1.43 coins | 1.2% | 345 | 370.4 | 0.93× | | [Tec-9 \| Red Quartz (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-red-quartz-minimal-wear) | 16.5% | $0.26 0.37 coins | 0.4% | 537 | 509.4 | 1.05× | | [Tec-9 \| VariCamo (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-varicamo-factory-new) | 13.0% | $0.22 0.32 coins | 0.3% | 386 | 401.3 | 0.96× | | [R8 Revolver \| Grip (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-grip-well-worn) | 17.5% | $0.16 0.23 coins | 0.3% | 538 | 540.2 | 1.00× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=eureka) [Sawed-Off | The Kraken (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-the-kraken-factory-new) Hidden $10.84 15.49 coins $79.80 114 coins 7.36x 2026-11-11 13:11 UTC [Tec-9 | VariCamo (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-varicamo-factory-new) Hidden $10.84 15.49 coins $0.22 0.32 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:09 UTC [Glock-18 | Blue Fissure (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-blue-fissure-minimal-wear) Hidden $10.84 15.49 coins $3.93 5.61 coins 0.36x 2026-11-11 13:09 UTC [Tec-9 | Red Quartz (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-red-quartz-minimal-wear) Hidden $10.84 15.49 coins $0.26 0.37 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:09 UTC [Tec-9 | Red Quartz (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-red-quartz-minimal-wear) Hidden $10.84 15.49 coins $0.26 0.37 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:09 UTC [MP9 | Dart (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-dart-minimal-wear) Hidden $10.84 15.49 coins $1.00 1.43 coins 0.09x 2026-11-11 13:09 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-crimson-web-factory-new) [John Pork](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/John%20Pork) $10.84 15.49 coins $18.20 26 coins 1.68x 2026-11-11 13:09 UTC [MP9 | Dart (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-dart-minimal-wear) Hidden $10.84 15.49 coins $1.00 1.43 coins 0.09x 2026-11-11 12:39 UTC [Glock-18 | Blue Fissure (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-blue-fissure-minimal-wear) [POOF](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/POOF) $10.84 15.49 coins $3.93 5.61 coins 0.36x 2026-11-11 12:39 UTC [USP-S | Blueprint (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blueprint-factory-new) Hidden $10.84 15.49 coins $91.70 131 coins 8.46x 2026-11-11 12:39 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 10 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $10.84 | 90.89% | 15 | | 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $10.84 | 90.90% | 15 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $10.84 | 90.92% | 15 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $11.07 | 90.91% | 15 | | 6 Nov, 22:57 UTC | $11.03 | 90.91% | 15 | | 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $11.02 | 90.91% | 15 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $11.02 | 90.89% | 15 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 12.3% mil spec 46.1% covert 6.1% restricted 22.5% industrial 13.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.89 on average: an expected loss of $9.11 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt