--- title: "Expedition case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Expedition ($131.93) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 22 items with odds, observed 59.22% over 51 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/expedition rendered: 2026-11-11T13:11Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Expedition](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/expedition) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Expedition A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/expedition?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/expedition?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/expedition) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/expedition?window=all) Price · $131.93 · 188 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $119.93 from 22 items Observed RTP, 30d · 59.22% · 51 openings, odds method Variance · 2.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 11.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 72.4% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 30 openings · below min 30 days · 51 openings · below min since tracking started · 51 openings · below min -0.5% 48.8% 98.0% **Small sample.** 51 openings and 6.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/expedition?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/expedition?window=7d) | 30 | 47.39% ±49.7 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/expedition) | 51 | 59.22% ±38.0 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/expedition?window=all) | 51 | 59.22% ±38.0 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 22 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 51 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 10,000 | $8,057 11,510 coins | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 2,000 | $2,219 3,170 coins | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,176 | $1,928 2,755 coins | 1.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-minimal-wear) | 1 in 870 | $1,035 1,478 coins | 1.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Big Game (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-big-game-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $1,008 1,440 coins | 1.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 667 | $935 1,336 coins | 1.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Convoy (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-convoy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $650 928 coins | 27.1% | 0 | 2.6 | 0.00× | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Emerald Web (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-well-worn) | 1 in 200 | $587 838 coins | 2.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-damascus-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 400 | $560 800 coins | 1.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 弐 (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sunset-storm-minimal-wear) | 1 in 56 | $404 577 coins | 6.1% | 0 | 0.9 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-crimson-web-well-worn) | 1 in 286 | $390 557 coins | 1.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Glock-18 \| Synth Leaf (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-synth-leaf-well-worn) | 1 in 40 | $276 394 coins | 5.7% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.78× | | [★ Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $258 369 coins | 2.2% | 3 | 0.5 | — | | [★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 80 | $157 224 coins | 1.6% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Freehand (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-freehand-well-worn) | 1 in 43 | $145 207 coins | 2.8% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× | | [Desert Eagle \| Hypnotic (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-hypnotic-factory-new) | 12.0% | $134 192 coins | 13.4% | 5 | 6.1 | 0.82× | | [Sticker \| flamie (Gold) \| Boston 2018 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-flamie-gold-boston-2018) | 1 in 31 | $130 186 coins | 3.5% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.61× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $84.70 121 coins | 2.8% | 2 | 2.0 | 0.98× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-crimson-web-well-worn) | 1 in 14 | $60.41 86.3 coins | 3.5% | 6 | 3.6 | 1.68× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Night (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-night-well-worn) | 20.0% | $46.46 66.37 coins | 7.7% | 10 | 10.2 | 0.98× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-forest-ddpat-well-worn) | 15.0% | $43.67 62.38 coins | 5.5% | 11 | 7.6 | 1.44× | | [AK-47 \| Black Laminate (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-black-laminate-battle-scarred) | 23.2% | $33.57 47.95 coins | 6.5% | 12 | 11.9 | 1.01× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=expedition) [★ Gut Knife | Forest DDPAT (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-forest-ddpat-well-worn) Hidden $132 188 coins $43.67 62.38 coins 0.33x 2026-11-10 02:53 UTC [Desert Eagle | Hypnotic (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-hypnotic-factory-new) Hidden $132 188 coins $134 192 coins 1.02x 2026-11-10 02:53 UTC [AK-47 | Black Laminate (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-black-laminate-battle-scarred) [GAMASIAK](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/GAMASIAK) $132 188 coins $33.57 47.95 coins 0.25x 2026-11-10 02:53 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Night (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-night-well-worn) [hellsten05](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/hellsten05) $129 184 coins $51.45 73.5 coins 0.40x 2026-11-06 17:04 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Night (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-night-well-worn) Hidden $129 184 coins $51.45 73.5 coins 0.40x 2026-11-06 17:04 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Forest DDPAT (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-forest-ddpat-well-worn) Hidden $129 184 coins $45.66 65.23 coins 0.35x 2026-11-06 17:04 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Forest DDPAT (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-forest-ddpat-well-worn) Hidden $129 184 coins $45.66 65.23 coins 0.35x 2026-11-05 01:58 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Night (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-night-well-worn) Hidden $129 184 coins $51.45 73.5 coins 0.40x 2026-11-05 01:58 UTC [Sticker | flamie (Gold) | Boston 2018 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-flamie-gold-boston-2018) Hidden $129 184 coins $130 186 coins 1.01x 2026-11-05 01:58 UTC [Desert Eagle | Hypnotic (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-hypnotic-factory-new) [✪ Pandan](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/%E2%9C%AA%20Pandan) $129 184 coins $135 193 coins 1.05x 2026-11-05 01:58 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $132 | 90.91% | 22 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $134 | 90.91% | 22 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $129 | 90.91% | 22 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 51.2% legendary 0.1% extraordinary 8.9% rare 0.3% restricted 4.3% classified 12.0% mil spec 23.2% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt