--- title: "Explorer case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Explorer ($43.50) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 23 items with odds, observed 96.75% over 84 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/explorer rendered: 2026-11-11T13:47Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Explorer](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/explorer) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Explorer A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/explorer?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/explorer?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/explorer) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/explorer?window=all) Price · $43.50 · 62.15 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $39.55 from 23 items Observed RTP, 30d · 96.75% · 84 openings, odds method Variance · 4.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 12.5% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 84.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 4 openings · below min 7 days · 80 openings · below min 30 days · 84 openings · below min since tracking started · 84 openings · below min -0.5% 124.0% 248.5% **Small sample.** 84 openings and 9.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/explorer?window=24h) | 4 | 41.26% ±206.4 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/explorer?window=7d) | 80 | 98.71% ±46.7 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/explorer) | 84 | 96.75% ±45.6 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/explorer?window=all) | 84 | 96.75% ±45.6 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 23 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 84 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $1,369 1,955 coins | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fire-serpent-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,353 1,933 coins | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Emerald Web (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,100 1,572 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Desert Hydra (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-field-tested) | 1 in 3,333 | $895 1,279 coins | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Jaguar (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-jaguar-factory-new) | 1 in 250 | $853 1,219 coins | 8.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-factory-new) | 1 in 154 | $563 804 coins | 9.2% | 2 | 0.5 | — | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Badlands (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-badlands-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $542 774 coins | 6.8% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Driver Gloves \| King Snake (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-king-snake-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333 | $412 588 coins | 3.1% | 1 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Bloodhound Gloves \| Snakebite (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/bloodhound-gloves-snakebite-field-tested) | 1 in 80 | $158 226 coins | 5.0% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× | | [AK-47 \| Panthera onca (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-panthera-onca-battle-scarred) | 1 in 125 | $122 175 coins | 2.5% | 2 | 0.7 | — | | [AK-47 \| Jaguar (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jaguar-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $79.10 113 coins | 8.0% | 2 | 3.4 | 0.60× | | [AWP \| Snake Camo (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-snake-camo-field-tested) | 1 in 67 | $68.82 98.32 coins | 2.6% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.79× | | [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $59.44 84.91 coins | 4.5% | 2 | 2.5 | 0.79× | | [P2000 \| Grassland Leaves (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-grassland-leaves-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $57.89 82.7 coins | 2.9% | 0 | 1.7 | 0.00× | | [★ Paracord Knife knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife) | 1 in 100 | $47.74 68.2 coins | 1.2% | 1 | 0.8 | — | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Constrictor (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-constrictor-well-worn) | 1 in 40 | $36.81 52.58 coins | 2.3% | 1 | 2.1 | 0.48× | | [P250 \| Red Rock (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-red-rock-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $30.24 43.2 coins | 4.6% | 5 | 5.0 | 0.99× | | [P250 \| Modern Hunter (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-modern-hunter-well-worn) | 18.0% | $28.87 41.24 coins | 13.1% | 14 | 15.1 | 0.93× | | [Nova \| Walnut (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-walnut-factory-new) | 14.5% | $25.47 36.38 coins | 9.3% | 15 | 12.2 | 1.23× | | [P2000 \| Woodsman (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-woodsman-well-worn) | 16.0% | $19.62 28.03 coins | 7.9% | 12 | 13.4 | 0.89× | | [Souvenir AK-47 \| Safety Net (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-safety-net-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $16.93 24.18 coins | 2.1% | 4 | 4.2 | 0.95× | | [Souvenir USP-S \| Forest Leaves (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-usp-s-forest-leaves-battle-scarred) | 1 in 22 | $6.31 9.01 coins | 0.7% | 3 | 3.8 | 0.79× | | [MP9 \| Ruby Poison Dart (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-ruby-poison-dart-factory-new) | 18.0% | $4.12 5.89 coins | 1.9% | 19 | 15.1 | 1.26× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-factory-new) Hidden $43.64 62.34 coins $563 804 coins 12.90x 2026-11-08 17:05 UTC [StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-factory-new) [puddleofcum](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/puddleofcum) $43.87 62.67 coins $552 788 coins 12.57x 2026-11-07 02:27 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=explorer) [MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-ruby-poison-dart-factory-new) Hidden $43.50 62.15 coins $4.12 5.89 coins 0.09x 2026-11-11 11:58 UTC [MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-ruby-poison-dart-factory-new) Hidden $43.50 62.15 coins $4.12 5.89 coins 0.09x 2026-11-11 11:58 UTC [MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-ruby-poison-dart-factory-new) [Miltsukkaaaw :3](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Miltsukkaaaw%20%3A3) $43.50 62.15 coins $4.12 5.89 coins 0.09x 2026-11-11 11:58 UTC [Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-factory-new) Hidden $43.50 62.15 coins $59.44 84.91 coins 1.37x 2026-11-11 11:58 UTC [MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-ruby-poison-dart-factory-new) Hidden $43.50 62.15 coins $4.12 5.89 coins 0.09x 2026-11-09 22:28 UTC [P2000 | Woodsman (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-woodsman-well-worn) Hidden $43.50 62.15 coins $19.62 28.03 coins 0.45x 2026-11-09 22:28 UTC [P250 | Modern Hunter (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-modern-hunter-well-worn) Hidden $43.50 62.15 coins $28.87 41.24 coins 0.66x 2026-11-09 22:28 UTC [P250 | Modern Hunter (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-modern-hunter-well-worn) [NeonTropical](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/NeonTropical) $43.50 62.15 coins $28.87 41.24 coins 0.66x 2026-11-09 22:28 UTC [MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-ruby-poison-dart-factory-new) [Fuksas](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Fuksas) $43.50 62.15 coins $4.12 5.89 coins 0.09x 2026-11-09 14:42 UTC [Souvenir USP-S | Forest Leaves (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-usp-s-forest-leaves-battle-scarred) Hidden $43.50 62.15 coins $6.31 9.01 coins 0.14x 2026-11-09 14:42 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $43.50 | 90.91% | 23 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $43.64 | 90.92% | 23 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $43.87 | 90.91% | 23 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed legendary 0.0% epic 0.1% extraordinary 4.6% covert 6.1% classified 3.8% mil spec 19.5% industrial 6.5% restricted 45.0% consumer 14.5% best hit $563 (12.90x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt