---
title: "Express case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Express ($30.65) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.92% from 15 items with odds, observed 91.30% over 410 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/express
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:47Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Express](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/express)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Express

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/express?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/express?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/express) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/express?window=all)

Price · $30.65 · 43.78 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.92% · EV $27.86 from 15 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 91.30% · 410 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 23.6% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 71.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 10 openings · below min

7 days · 92.30% ±12.81 358 openings

30 days · 91.30% ±11.97 410 openings

since tracking started · 91.30% ±11.97 410 openings

29.0% 106.3% 183.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/express?window=24h) | 10 | 106.27% ±76.7 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/express?window=7d) | 358 | 92.30% ±12.8 | +0.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/express) | 410 | 91.30% ±12.0 | +0.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/express?window=all) | 410 | 91.30% ±12.0 | +0.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 410 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $1,119 1,598 coins | 0.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,086 1,552 coins | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-well-worn) | 1 in 3,333 | $1,067 1,524 coins | 1.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 2,000 | $393 561 coins | 0.7% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $222 317 coins | 4.0% | 2 | 2.0 | 0.98× |
| [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Jade (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-jade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $95.20 136 coins | 6.8% | 8 | 8.2 | 0.98× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Cartel (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-cartel-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $88.20 126 coins | 9.5% | 16 | 12.3 | 1.30× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Candy Apple (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-candy-apple-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $53.11 75.87 coins | 15.2% | 27 | 32.8 | 0.82× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Player Two (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-player-two-field-tested) | 10.0% | $52.51 75.02 coins | 18.8% | 42 | 41.0 | 1.02× |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Overtake (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-overtake-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $39.33 56.18 coins | 7.1% | 17 | 20.5 | 0.83× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| The Fuschia Is Now (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-the-fuschia-is-now-factory-new) | 11.4% | $25.23 36.05 coins | 10.3% | 47 | 46.7 | 1.01× |
| [FAMAS \| Mecha Industries (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-mecha-industries-battle-scarred) | 15.0% | $24.03 34.33 coins | 12.9% | 61 | 61.5 | 0.99× |
| [P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-imperial-dragon-well-worn) | 17.0% | $11.45 16.35 coins | 7.0% | 85 | 69.7 | 1.22× |
| [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-factory-new) | 12.0% | $6.99 9.99 coins | 3.0% | 39 | 49.2 | 0.79× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Slalom (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-slalom-well-worn) | 16.0% | $3.90 5.57 coins | 2.2% | 65 | 65.6 | 0.99× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=express)

[StatTrak™ AK-47 | Cartel (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-cartel-factory-new) Hidden $30.65 43.78 coins $88.20 126 coins 2.88x 2026-11-11 01:08 UTC

[StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Player Two (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-player-two-field-tested) Hidden $30.65 43.78 coins $52.51 75.02 coins 1.71x 2026-11-11 01:08 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Candy Apple (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-candy-apple-field-tested) Hidden $30.65 43.78 coins $53.11 75.87 coins 1.73x 2026-11-11 01:08 UTC

[FAMAS | Mecha Industries (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-mecha-industries-battle-scarred) [DoritosAndDew](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/DoritosAndDew) $30.65 43.78 coins $24.03 34.33 coins 0.78x 2026-11-11 01:08 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Slalom (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-slalom-well-worn) Hidden $30.65 43.78 coins $3.90 5.57 coins 0.13x 2026-11-10 17:56 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Slalom (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-slalom-well-worn) Hidden $30.65 43.78 coins $3.90 5.57 coins 0.13x 2026-11-10 17:56 UTC

[FAMAS | Mecha Industries (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-mecha-industries-battle-scarred) Hidden $30.65 43.78 coins $24.03 34.33 coins 0.78x 2026-11-10 17:56 UTC

[P2000 | Imperial Dragon (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-imperial-dragon-well-worn) Hidden $30.65 43.78 coins $11.45 16.35 coins 0.37x 2026-11-10 17:56 UTC

[P2000 | Imperial Dragon (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-imperial-dragon-well-worn) [Olaux](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Olaux) $30.65 43.78 coins $11.45 16.35 coins 0.37x 2026-11-10 17:56 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Candy Apple (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-candy-apple-field-tested) Hidden $30.65 43.78 coins $53.11 75.87 coins 1.73x 2026-11-10 17:56 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $30.65 | 90.92% | 15 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $31.39 | 90.92% | 15 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $31.67 | 90.92% | 15 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed epic 0.0% covert 10.6% extraordinary 7.0% classified 46.4% industrial 8.0% mil spec 12.0% uncommon 16.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.92 on average: an expected loss of $9.08 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt