---
title: "Extraction case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Extraction ($75.71) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 23 items with odds, observed 66.14% over 143 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/extraction
rendered: 2026-11-11T19:22Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Extraction](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/extraction)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Extraction

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/extraction?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/extraction?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/extraction) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/extraction?window=all)

Price · $75.71 · 108 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $68.82 from 23 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 66.14% · 143 openings, odds method

Variance · 5.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 13 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 75.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 11 openings · below min

7 days · 56.41% ±40.51 124 openings

30 days · 66.14% ±37.74 143 openings

since tracking started · 66.14% ±37.74 143 openings

-0.5% 117.3% 235.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/extraction?window=24h) | 11 | 99.39% ±135.1 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/extraction?window=7d) | 124 | 56.41% ±40.5 | −1.7σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/extraction) | 143 | 66.14% ±37.7 | −1.3σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/extraction?window=all) | 143 | 66.14% ±37.7 | −1.3σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 23 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 143 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Factory New) 4x Titan (Holo) (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-blue-laminate-factory-new-4x-titan-holo-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $21K 30,000 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-emerald) | 1 in 1,333 | $1,438 2,054 coins | 1.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Superconductor (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-superconductor-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,407 2,010 coins | 1.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fire-serpent-battle-scarred) | 1 in 154 | $1,353 1,933 coins | 12.8% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,292 1,845 coins | 1.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-autotronic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $1,047 1,496 coins | 7.6% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · legendary · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nomad-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 333 | $649 927 coins | 2.8% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 壱 (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sunset-storm-field-tested-2) | 1 in 80 | $412 589 coins | 7.5% | 0 | 1.8 | 0.00× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 125 | $367 524 coins | 4.3% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $225 321 coins | 3.3% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.70× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 36 | $179 255 coins | 7.3% | 4 | 4.0 | 1.00× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-blue-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 43 | $163 233 coins | 5.5% | 2 | 3.3 | 0.61× |
| [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $153 218 coins | 8.9% | 4 | 5.7 | 0.70× |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Imperial Plaid (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-imperial-plaid-well-worn) | 1 in 67 | $122 175 coins | 2.7% | 3 | 2.1 | 1.40× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Freehand (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-freehand-factory-new) | 1 in 31 | $88.20 126 coins | 4.1% | 7 | 4.6 | 1.53× |
| [AWP \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 17 | $83.30 119 coins | 7.3% | 11 | 8.6 | 1.28× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-blue-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $58.25 83.21 coins | 3.8% | 2 | 6.4 | 0.31× |
| [★ Hydra Gloves \| Gamma Doppler (Well-Worn) (Emerald) gloves · extraordinary · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-gamma-doppler-well-worn-emerald) | 1 in 13 | $30.87 44.1 coins | 3.4% | 10 | 10.7 | 0.93× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Emerald (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-emerald-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $26.52 37.88 coins | 3.5% | 16 | 12.9 | 1.24× |
| [Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-stone-cold-factory-new) | 14.0% | $20.60 29.43 coins | 4.2% | 26 | 20.0 | 1.30× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Demolition (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-demolition-battle-scarred) | 15.5% | $12.70 18.14 coins | 2.9% | 21 | 22.1 | 0.95× |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-field-tested) | 12.0% | $12.39 17.7 coins | 2.2% | 23 | 17.2 | 1.34× |
| [UMP-45 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 13.0% | $8.12 11.6 coins | 1.5% | 12 | 18.6 | 0.65× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fire-serpent-battle-scarred) Hidden $76.47 109 coins $1,399 1,999 coins 18.30x 2026-11-03 01:03 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=extraction)

[Dual Berettas | Demolition (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-demolition-battle-scarred) Hidden $75.71 108 coins $12.70 18.14 coins 0.17x 2026-11-11 18:19 UTC

[★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-battle-scarred) Hidden $75.71 108 coins $225 321 coins 2.97x 2026-11-11 18:19 UTC

[AWP | Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-well-worn) Hidden $75.71 108 coins $83.30 119 coins 1.10x 2026-11-11 18:19 UTC

[AWP | Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-well-worn) [Call me Johnny](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Call%20me%20Johnny) $75.71 108 coins $83.30 119 coins 1.10x 2026-11-11 18:19 UTC

[UMP-45 | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-neo-noir-minimal-wear) Hidden $75.71 108 coins $8.12 11.6 coins 0.11x 2026-11-11 17:43 UTC

[★ Hydra Gloves | Gamma Doppler (Well-Worn) (Emerald) gloves · extraordinary · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-gamma-doppler-well-worn-emerald) Hidden $75.71 108 coins $30.87 44.1 coins 0.41x 2026-11-11 17:43 UTC

[Galil AR | Stone Cold (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-stone-cold-factory-new) Hidden $75.71 108 coins $20.60 29.43 coins 0.27x 2026-11-11 17:43 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Freehand (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-freehand-factory-new) [Call me Johnny](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Call%20me%20Johnny) $75.71 108 coins $88.20 126 coins 1.17x 2026-11-11 17:43 UTC

[★ Driver Gloves | Imperial Plaid (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-imperial-plaid-well-worn) [Pontus](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Pontus) $75.71 108 coins $122 175 coins 1.62x 2026-11-11 01:54 UTC

[★ Driver Gloves | Imperial Plaid (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-imperial-plaid-well-worn) Hidden $75.71 108 coins $122 175 coins 1.62x 2026-11-11 01:54 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $75.71 | 90.91% | 23 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $75.19 | 90.91% | 23 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $76.47 | 90.91% | 23 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed legendary 1.1% covert 20.3% extraordinary 10.1% epic 0.7% restricted 30.7% covert knife 3.2% mil spec 9.0% classified 12.0% uncommon 13.0% best hit $1,399 (18.30x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt