--- title: "Extraterrestrial case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Extraterrestrial ($78.81) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 13 items with odds, observed 85.91% over 2,411 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/extraterrestrial rendered: 2026-11-11T13:29Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Extraterrestrial](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/extraterrestrial) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Extraterrestrial A case on CSGORoll (20%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/extraterrestrial?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/extraterrestrial?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/extraterrestrial) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/extraterrestrial?window=all) Price · $78.81 · 113 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $71.64 from 13 items Observed RTP, 30d · 85.91% · 2,411 openings, odds method Variance · 7.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 17 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 93.08% ±32.35 288 openings 7 days · 88.15% ±14.09 1,510 openings 30 days · 85.91% ±11.13 2,411 openings since tracking started · 85.91% ±11.13 2,411 openings 60.0% 93.0% 126.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/extraterrestrial?window=24h) | 288 | 93.08% ±32.3 | +0.1σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/extraterrestrial?window=7d) | 1,510 | 88.15% ±14.1 | −0.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/extraterrestrial) | 2,411 | 85.91% ±11.1 | −0.9σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/extraterrestrial?window=all) | 2,411 | 85.91% ±11.1 | −0.9σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,411 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 100,000 | $7,000 10,000 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A4 \| Howl (Minimal Wear) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20,000 | $5,156 7,365 coins | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Sticker \| Titan \| Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-katowice-2014) | 1 in 500 | $3,136 4,480 coins | 8.8% | 2 | 4.8 | 0.41× | | [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-black-pearl) | 1 in 2,000 | $2,615 3,735 coins | 1.8% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.66× | | [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 200 | $902 1,288 coins | 6.3% | 14 | 12.1 | 1.16× | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Containment Breach (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-containment-breach-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $754 1,077 coins | 21.0% | 45 | 48.2 | 0.93× | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) | 1 in 100 | $617 882 coins | 8.6% | 25 | 24.1 | 1.04× | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-crimson-web-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $390 557 coins | 10.9% | 42 | 48.2 | 0.87× | | [★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-stiletto-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $293 419 coins | 12.3% | 64 | 72.3 | 0.88× | | [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 31 | $210 300 coins | 9.5% | 71 | 78.2 | 0.91× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) | 1 in 13 | $182 260 coins | 20.3% | 219 | 192.9 | 1.14× | | [MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-battle-scarred) | 40.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 986 | 964.4 | 1.02× | | [MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 40.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 941 | 964.4 | 0.98× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Sticker | Titan | Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-katowice-2014) Hidden $79.44 113 coins $3,143 4,490 coins 39.57x 2026-11-07 02:41 UTC [Sticker | Titan | Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-katowice-2014) [m1chi](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/m1chi) $78.81 113 coins $3,136 4,480 coins 39.79x 2026-11-09 05:46 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-black-pearl) Hidden $78.81 113 coins $2,615 3,735 coins 33.18x 2026-11-09 05:37 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-black-pearl) Hidden $79.44 113 coins $2,615 3,735 coins 32.91x 2026-11-03 12:09 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-black-pearl) Hidden $79.44 113 coins $2,615 3,735 coins 32.91x 2026-11-03 11:21 UTC [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $79.44 113 coins $940 1,343 coins 11.83x 2026-11-07 18:19 UTC [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $79.44 113 coins $940 1,343 coins 11.83x 2026-11-07 06:26 UTC [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) [m1chi](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/m1chi) $79.44 113 coins $940 1,343 coins 11.83x 2026-11-03 16:23 UTC [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $79.44 113 coins $940 1,343 coins 11.83x 2026-11-03 13:06 UTC [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $79.44 113 coins $940 1,343 coins 11.83x 2026-11-03 12:28 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=extraterrestrial) [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-battle-scarred) Hidden $78.81 113 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 09:11 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-battle-scarred) Hidden $78.81 113 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 09:11 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-battle-scarred) Hidden $78.81 113 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 09:11 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-battle-scarred) Hidden $78.81 113 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 09:11 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-battle-scarred) [AlienVPredatorVPlessyVFerguson](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/AlienVPredatorVPlessyVFerguson) $78.81 113 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 09:11 UTC [StatTrak™ AWP | Containment Breach (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-containment-breach-factory-new) Hidden $78.81 113 coins $754 1,077 coins 9.57x 2026-11-11 09:11 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-battle-scarred) [Kickerrrrrrrr](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Kickerrrrrrrr) $78.81 113 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 05:09 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-battle-scarred) Hidden $78.81 113 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 05:09 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $78.81 113 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 05:09 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $78.81 113 coins $210 300 coins 2.66x 2026-11-11 05:09 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $78.81 | 90.91% | 13 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $79.44 | 90.91% | 13 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 19.8% contraband 0.0% high 0.2% consumer 80.0% best hit $3,143 (39.57x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt