--- title: "Extreme case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Extreme ($6.04) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.86% from 13 items with odds, observed 98.12% over 25K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/extreme rendered: 2026-11-11T15:49Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Extreme](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/extreme) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Extreme A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/extreme?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/extreme?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/extreme) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/extreme?window=all) Price · $6.04 · 8.63 coins Advertised RTP · 90.86% · EV $5.49 from 13 items Observed RTP, 30d · 98.12% · 25K openings, odds method Variance · 60.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 182 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 97.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 91.49% ±29.98 2,579 openings 7 days · 101.88% ±10.36 21.9K openings 30 days · 98.12% ±9.70 25K openings since tracking started · 98.12% ±9.70 25K openings 61.0% 91.5% 122.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/extreme?window=24h) | 2,579 | 91.49% ±30.0 | +0.0σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/extreme?window=7d) | 21.9K | 101.88% ±10.4 | +2.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/extreme) | 25K | 98.12% ±9.70 | +1.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/extreme?window=all) | 25K | 98.12% ±9.70 | +1.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 25.1K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Omega (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-omega-factory-new) | 1 in 7,692 | $1,185 1,693 coins | 2.8% | 4 | 3.3 | 1.23× | | [Souvenir AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-gold-arabesque-well-worn) | 1 in 3,571 | $963 1,376 coins | 4.9% | 12 | 7.0 | 1.71× | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,562 | $783 1,119 coins | 9.1% | 15 | 16.0 | 0.93× | | [★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-paracord-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 1,053 | $709 1,013 coins | 12.3% | 31 | 23.8 | 1.30× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) | 1 in 286 | $388 554 coins | 24.7% | 98 | 87.7 | 1.12× | | [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $332 474 coins | 6.0% | 27 | 25.1 | 1.08× | | [SG 553 \| Bulldozer (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-bulldozer-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $230 328 coins | 8.4% | 44 | 50.1 | 0.88× | | [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-crimson-web-well-worn) | 1 in 250 | $175 250 coins | 12.8% | 95 | 100.3 | 0.95× | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $79.80 114 coins | 7.3% | 115 | 125.3 | 0.92× | | [StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-fuel-injector-factory-new) | 1 in 133 | $54.89 78.41 coins | 7.5% | 177 | 188.0 | 0.94× | | [PP-Bizon \| Jungle Slipstream (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-jungle-slipstream-well-worn) | 32.5% | $0.31 0.44 coins | 1.8% | 8,122 | 8147.4 | 1.00× | | [R8 Revolver \| Banana Cannon (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-banana-cannon-well-worn) | 28.0% | $0.30 0.43 coins | 1.5% | 7,065 | 7019.3 | 1.01× | | [MAC-10 \| Candy Apple (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-candy-apple-field-tested) | 37.0% | $0.13 0.18 coins | 0.8% | 9,264 | 9275.5 | 1.00× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Sport Gloves | Omega (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-omega-factory-new) Hidden $5.85 8.35 coins $1,258 1,797 coins 215.2x 2026-11-06 21:55 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Omega (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-omega-factory-new) Hidden $5.85 8.35 coins $1,258 1,797 coins 215.2x 2026-11-06 21:40 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Omega (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-omega-factory-new) [MalstR0m](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/MalstR0m) $5.85 8.35 coins $1,258 1,797 coins 215.2x 2026-11-06 16:52 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Omega (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-omega-factory-new) Hidden $5.85 8.35 coins $1,258 1,797 coins 215.2x 2026-11-06 14:48 UTC [Souvenir AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-gold-arabesque-well-worn) Hidden $5.85 8.35 coins $985 1,407 coins 168.5x 2026-11-07 20:12 UTC [Souvenir AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-gold-arabesque-well-worn) Hidden $5.85 8.35 coins $985 1,407 coins 168.5x 2026-11-07 03:16 UTC [Souvenir AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-gold-arabesque-well-worn) Hidden $5.85 8.35 coins $985 1,407 coins 168.5x 2026-11-06 17:37 UTC [Souvenir AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-gold-arabesque-well-worn) [theWILLEw](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/theWILLEw) $5.85 8.35 coins $985 1,407 coins 168.5x 2026-11-05 21:54 UTC [Souvenir AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-gold-arabesque-well-worn) [Max1m](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Max1m) $5.85 8.35 coins $985 1,407 coins 168.5x 2026-11-05 20:05 UTC [Souvenir AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-gold-arabesque-well-worn) [Lny](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Lny) $5.85 8.35 coins $985 1,407 coins 168.5x 2026-11-03 22:49 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=extreme) [R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-banana-cannon-well-worn) Hidden $6.04 8.63 coins $0.30 0.43 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 15:45 UTC [R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-banana-cannon-well-worn) Hidden $6.04 8.63 coins $0.30 0.43 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 15:45 UTC [PP-Bizon | Jungle Slipstream (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-jungle-slipstream-well-worn) Hidden $6.04 8.63 coins $0.31 0.44 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 15:45 UTC [R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-banana-cannon-well-worn) Hidden $6.04 8.63 coins $0.30 0.43 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 15:45 UTC [PP-Bizon | Jungle Slipstream (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-jungle-slipstream-well-worn) Hidden $6.04 8.63 coins $0.31 0.44 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 15:45 UTC [R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-banana-cannon-well-worn) [ALEXANDRU](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/ALEXANDRU) $6.04 8.63 coins $0.30 0.43 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 15:45 UTC [MAC-10 | Candy Apple (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-candy-apple-field-tested) [Spooderman](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Spooderman) $6.04 8.63 coins $0.13 0.18 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 15:44 UTC [MAC-10 | Candy Apple (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-candy-apple-field-tested) Hidden $6.04 8.63 coins $0.13 0.18 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 15:44 UTC [MAC-10 | Candy Apple (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-candy-apple-field-tested) Hidden $6.04 8.63 coins $0.13 0.18 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 15:44 UTC [PP-Bizon | Jungle Slipstream (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-jungle-slipstream-well-worn) Hidden $6.04 8.63 coins $0.31 0.44 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 15:44 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 9 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $6.04 | 90.86% | 13 | | 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $6.04 | 90.90% | 13 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $6.03 | 90.93% | 13 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $6.05 | 90.91% | 13 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $5.85 | 90.91% | 13 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 0.0% covert 1.4% legendary 0.1% restricted 28.2% Legendary 0.8% mil spec 32.5% industrial 37.0% best hit $1,258 (215.2x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.86 on average: an expected loss of $9.14 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt