--- title: "Faded Case case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Faded Case ($96.14) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 8 items with odds, observed 84.56% over 183 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/faded-case rendered: 2026-11-11T19:22Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Faded Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/faded-case) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Faded Case A case on CSGORoll (10%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/faded-case?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/faded-case?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/faded-case) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/faded-case?window=all) Price · $96.14 · 137 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $87.40 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 84.56% · 183 openings, odds method Variance · 5.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 14 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 12 openings · below min 7 days · 88.12% ±35.92 165 openings 30 days · 84.56% ±34.11 183 openings since tracking started · 84.56% ±34.11 183 openings 11.5% 146.5% 281.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/faded-case?window=24h) | 12 | 146.61% ±134.4 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/faded-case?window=7d) | 165 | 88.12% ±35.9 | −0.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/faded-case) | 183 | 84.56% ±34.1 | −0.4σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/faded-case?window=all) | 183 | 84.56% ±34.1 | −0.4σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 183 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $1,970 2,815 coins | 22.5% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.55× | | [Glock-18 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $1,165 1,664 coins | 13.3% | 2 | 1.8 | 1.09× | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $368 526 coins | 4.2% | 3 | 1.8 | 1.64× | | [★ Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $316 452 coins | 7.2% | 3 | 3.7 | 0.82× | | [★ Classic Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $241 344 coins | 5.5% | 3 | 3.7 | 0.82× | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-fade-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $103 147 coins | 3.5% | 8 | 5.5 | 1.46× | | [R8 Revolver \| Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-fade-field-tested) | 45.0% | $74.90 107 coins | 38.6% | 82 | 82.4 | 1.00× | | [MP7 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-fade-factory-new) | 45.0% | $9.84 14.06 coins | 5.1% | 81 | 82.4 | 0.98× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $96.26 138 coins $1,946 2,780 coins 20.22x 2026-11-08 08:04 UTC [Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) Hidden $96.14 137 coins $1,165 1,664 coins 12.12x 2026-11-11 15:44 UTC [Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) Hidden $96.26 138 coins $1,157 1,653 coins 12.02x 2026-11-08 07:46 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=faded-case) [Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) Hidden $96.14 137 coins $1,165 1,664 coins 12.12x 2026-11-11 15:44 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Fade (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-fade-battle-scarred) Hidden $96.14 137 coins $103 147 coins 1.07x 2026-11-11 15:44 UTC [MP7 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-fade-factory-new) Hidden $96.14 137 coins $9.84 14.06 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 15:44 UTC [R8 Revolver | Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-fade-field-tested) [Jhon csgoroll.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Jhon%20csgoroll.com) $96.14 137 coins $74.90 107 coins 0.78x 2026-11-11 15:44 UTC [R8 Revolver | Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-fade-field-tested) Hidden $96.14 137 coins $74.90 107 coins 0.78x 2026-11-11 03:20 UTC [R8 Revolver | Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-fade-field-tested) Hidden $96.14 137 coins $74.90 107 coins 0.78x 2026-11-11 03:20 UTC [MP7 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-fade-factory-new) Hidden $96.14 137 coins $9.84 14.06 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 03:20 UTC [MP7 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-fade-factory-new) [FaLLouT'z](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/FaLLouT'z) $96.14 137 coins $9.84 14.06 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 03:20 UTC [R8 Revolver | Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-fade-field-tested) Hidden $96.14 137 coins $74.90 107 coins 0.78x 2026-11-11 03:09 UTC [MP7 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-fade-factory-new) Hidden $96.14 137 coins $9.84 14.06 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 03:09 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $96.14 | 90.91% | 8 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $96.06 | 90.91% | 8 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $96.26 | 90.91% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 51.0% restricted 46.0% extraordinary 3.0% best hit $1,946 (20.22x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt