---
title: "Fairytale case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Fairytale ($45.74) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.90% from 17 items with odds, observed 87.41% over 167 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fairytale
rendered: 2026-11-11T16:04Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Fairytale](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fairytale)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Fairytale

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fairytale?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fairytale?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fairytale) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fairytale?window=all)

Price · $45.74 · 65.35 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.90% · EV $41.58 from 17 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 87.41% · 167 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 23.5% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 73.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 9 openings · below min

7 days · 89.67% ±17.44 131 openings

30 days · 87.41% ±15.45 167 openings

since tracking started · 87.41% ±15.45 167 openings

-0.5% 55.3% 111.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fairytale?window=24h) | 9 | 44.83% ±65.6 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fairytale?window=7d) | 131 | 89.67% ±17.4 | −0.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fairytale) | 167 | 87.41% ±15.5 | −0.4σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fairytale?window=all) | 167 | 87.41% ±15.5 | −0.4σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 167 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $427 610 coins | 5.1% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $186 266 coins | 13.4% | 5 | 5.0 | 1.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $120 171 coins | 5.8% | 3 | 3.3 | 0.90× |
| [Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sugar-rush-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $118 169 coins | 8.5% | 7 | 5.0 | 1.40× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Pilot (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-pilot-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $82.60 118 coins | 6.0% | 4 | 5.0 | 0.80× |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-crimson-web-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $74.90 107 coins | 3.6% | 3 | 3.3 | 0.90× |
| [USP-S \| Dark Water (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-dark-water-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $62.03 88.61 coins | 4.5% | 5 | 5.0 | 1.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $51.69 73.84 coins | 8.7% | 12 | 11.7 | 1.03× |
| [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $48.50 69.28 coins | 3.5% | 7 | 5.0 | 1.40× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $41.85 59.78 coins | 6.0% | 5 | 10.0 | 0.50× |
| [P250 \| Digital Architect (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-digital-architect-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $39.56 56.52 coins | 3.8% | 6 | 6.7 | 0.90× |
| [Nova \| Bloomstick (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-bloomstick-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $30.46 43.51 coins | 11.0% | 28 | 25.1 | 1.12× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-blue-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $29.41 42.02 coins | 4.2% | 11 | 10.0 | 1.10× |
| [USP-S \| Business Class (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-business-class-well-worn) | 1 in 14 | $28.34 40.49 coins | 4.8% | 10 | 11.7 | 0.86× |
| [Glock-18 \| Pink DDPAT (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-pink-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $27.54 39.34 coins | 2.0% | 7 | 5.0 | 1.40× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $17.72 25.31 coins | 6.4% | 28 | 25.1 | 1.12× |
| [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Acid Etched (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-acid-etched-factory-new) | 17.5% | $6.38 9.11 coins | 2.7% | 26 | 29.2 | 0.89× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=fairytale)

[USP-S | Business Class (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-business-class-well-worn) Hidden $45.74 65.35 coins $28.34 40.49 coins 0.62x 2026-11-11 15:38 UTC

[Nova | Bloomstick (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-bloomstick-minimal-wear) Hidden $45.74 65.35 coins $30.46 43.51 coins 0.67x 2026-11-11 15:38 UTC

[M4A4 | Desolate Space (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-minimal-wear) [gifu](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/gifu) $45.74 65.35 coins $17.72 25.31 coins 0.39x 2026-11-11 15:38 UTC

[StatTrak™ P2000 | Acid Etched (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-acid-etched-factory-new) Hidden $45.74 65.35 coins $6.38 9.11 coins 0.14x 2026-11-10 23:47 UTC

[StatTrak™ P2000 | Acid Etched (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-acid-etched-factory-new) [csgoroll prayer](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/csgoroll%20prayer) $45.74 65.35 coins $6.38 9.11 coins 0.14x 2026-11-10 23:47 UTC

[M4A4 | Desolate Space (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-minimal-wear) Hidden $45.74 65.35 coins $17.72 25.31 coins 0.39x 2026-11-10 23:47 UTC

[StatTrak™ AK-47 | Blue Laminate (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-blue-laminate-field-tested) Hidden $45.74 65.35 coins $29.41 42.02 coins 0.64x 2026-11-10 23:47 UTC

[M4A4 | Desolate Space (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-minimal-wear) Hidden $45.74 65.35 coins $17.72 25.31 coins 0.39x 2026-11-10 23:47 UTC

[Nova | Bloomstick (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-bloomstick-minimal-wear) Hidden $45.74 65.35 coins $30.46 43.51 coins 0.67x 2026-11-10 23:47 UTC

[M4A1-S | Player Two (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-field-tested) [Veckans](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Veckans) $45.74 65.35 coins $51.69 73.84 coins 1.13x 2026-11-09 22:38 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $45.74 | 90.90% | 17 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $45.49 | 90.91% | 17 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $45.41 | 90.91% | 17 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed legendary 0.5% covert 21.0% restricted 38.5% classified 33.0% mil spec 7.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.90 on average: an expected loss of $9.10 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt