--- title: "Fallen case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Fallen ($67.89) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 21 items with odds, observed 83.18% over 68 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fallen rendered: 2026-11-11T13:47Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Fallen](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fallen) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Fallen A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fallen?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fallen?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fallen) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fallen?window=all) Price · $67.89 · 96.99 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $61.72 from 21 items Observed RTP, 30d · 83.18% · 68 openings, odds method Variance · 1.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 27.6% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 57.9% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 46 openings · below min 30 days · 68 openings · below min since tracking started · 68 openings · below min 51.5% 81.3% 111.0% **Small sample.** 68 openings and 16.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fallen?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fallen?window=7d) | 46 | 81.28% ±29.0 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fallen) | 68 | 83.18% ±23.8 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fallen?window=all) | 68 | 83.18% ±23.8 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 21 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 68 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 250 | $482 689 coins | 3.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| The Empress (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-the-empress-factory-new) | 1 in 143 | $377 539 coins | 4.3% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-field-tested) | 1 in 333 | $346 494 coins | 1.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Jaguar (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-jaguar-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $284 406 coins | 4.6% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-minimal-wear) | 1 in 125 | $277 395 coins | 3.6% | 2 | 0.5 | — | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 182 | $274 392 coins | 2.4% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $242 346 coins | 2.0% | 1 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 154 | $169 242 coins | 1.8% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Mogul (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-mogul-minimal-wear) | 1 in 133 | $122 174 coins | 1.5% | 1 | 0.5 | — | | [Galil AR \| Cerberus (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-cerberus-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $121 173 coins | 9.8% | 3 | 3.4 | 0.88× | | [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $107 153 coins | 3.5% | 2 | 1.4 | 1.47× | | [AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $102 145 coins | 4.9% | 2 | 2.0 | 0.98× | | [USP-S \| Blueprint (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blueprint-factory-new) | 12.0% | $91.70 131 coins | 17.8% | 7 | 8.2 | 0.86× | | [Tec-9 \| Tornado (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-tornado-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $89.60 128 coins | 10.2% | 2 | 4.8 | 0.42× | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Badlands (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-badlands-battle-scarred) | 1 in 29 | $82.60 118 coins | 4.7% | 0 | 2.4 | 0.00× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-neon-rider-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $74.20 106 coins | 4.8% | 5 | 2.7 | 1.84× | | [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $67.53 96.47 coins | 8.8% | 8 | 5.4 | 1.47× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Emerald (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-emerald-factory-new) | 10.0% | $23.07 32.95 coins | 3.7% | 5 | 6.8 | 0.74× | | [Zeus x27 \| Dragon Snore (Minimal Wear) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-dragon-snore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 15 | $18.06 25.8 coins | 1.9% | 4 | 4.4 | 0.90× | | [Dual Berettas \| Demolition (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-demolition-field-tested) | 14.0% | $13.67 19.53 coins | 3.1% | 9 | 9.5 | 0.95× | | [XM1014 \| Heaven Guard (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-heaven-guard-minimal-wear) | 19.4% | $5.96 8.51 coins | 1.9% | 17 | 13.2 | 1.29× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=fallen) [XM1014 | Heaven Guard (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-heaven-guard-minimal-wear) Hidden $67.89 96.99 coins $5.96 8.51 coins 0.09x 2026-11-09 18:30 UTC [XM1014 | Heaven Guard (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-heaven-guard-minimal-wear) Hidden $67.89 96.99 coins $5.96 8.51 coins 0.09x 2026-11-09 18:30 UTC [Galil AR | Cerberus (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-cerberus-factory-new) Hidden $67.89 96.99 coins $121 173 coins 1.78x 2026-11-09 18:30 UTC [Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-minimal-wear) [\`FluffyFlow⭕⃤](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/%60FluffyFlow%E2%AD%95%E2%83%A4) $67.89 96.99 coins $67.53 96.47 coins 0.99x 2026-11-09 18:30 UTC [Dual Berettas | Demolition (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-demolition-field-tested) Hidden $67.89 96.99 coins $13.67 19.53 coins 0.20x 2026-11-09 18:09 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-fade-factory-new) [\`FluffyFlow⭕⃤](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/%60FluffyFlow%E2%AD%95%E2%83%A4) $67.89 96.99 coins $242 346 coins 3.57x 2026-11-09 18:09 UTC [XM1014 | Heaven Guard (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-heaven-guard-minimal-wear) Hidden $67.89 96.99 coins $5.96 8.51 coins 0.09x 2026-11-09 00:16 UTC [Tec-9 | Tornado (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-tornado-factory-new) Hidden $67.89 96.99 coins $89.60 128 coins 1.32x 2026-11-09 00:16 UTC [Zeus x27 | Dragon Snore (Minimal Wear) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-dragon-snore-minimal-wear) Hidden $67.89 96.99 coins $18.06 25.8 coins 0.27x 2026-11-09 00:16 UTC [Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-minimal-wear) Hidden $67.89 96.99 coins $67.53 96.47 coins 0.99x 2026-11-09 00:16 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $67.89 | 90.91% | 21 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $67.97 | 90.91% | 21 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $67.96 | 90.91% | 21 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 20.9% rare 7.2% extraordinary 4.5% restricted 38.4% mil spec 22.0% consumer 7.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt