--- title: "Fallout case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Fallout ($29.89) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.92% from 19 items with odds, observed 76.43% over 338 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fallout rendered: 2026-11-11T14:13Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Fallout](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fallout) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Fallout A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fallout?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fallout?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fallout) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fallout?window=all) Price · $29.89 · 42.7 coins Advertised RTP · 90.92% · EV $27.18 from 19 items Observed RTP, 30d · 76.43% · 338 openings, odds method Variance · 2.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 10.9% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.1% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 28 openings · below min 7 days · 72.70% ±17.83 308 openings 30 days · 76.43% ±17.01 338 openings since tracking started · 76.43% ±17.01 338 openings -0.5% 48.8% 98.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fallout?window=24h) | 28 | 37.68% ±59.7 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fallout?window=7d) | 308 | 72.70% ±17.8 | −2.0σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fallout) | 338 | 76.43% ±17.0 | −1.7σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fallout?window=all) | 338 | 76.43% ±17.0 | −1.7σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 19 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 338 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $557 796 coins | 2.1% | 1 | 0.3 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 333 | $309 442 coins | 3.4% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× | | [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $283 404 coins | 2.1% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-1) | 1 in 250 | $241 345 coins | 3.6% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.74× | | [Dual Berettas \| Duelist (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-duelist-battle-scarred) | 1 in 111 | $189 270 coins | 6.3% | 2 | 3.0 | 0.66× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 182 | $157 224 coins | 3.2% | 2 | 1.9 | 1.08× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Lore (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 154 | $143 204 coins | 3.4% | 2 | 2.2 | 0.91× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Damascus Steel (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-damascus-steel-well-worn) | 1 in 125 | $117 167 coins | 3.4% | 1 | 2.7 | 0.37× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Bronze Morph (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-bronze-morph-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $116 166 coins | 2.1% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.59× | | [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 67 | $115 165 coins | 6.4% | 5 | 5.1 | 0.99× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-neon-revolution-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $114 163 coins | 21.0% | 11 | 16.9 | 0.65× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $98.70 141 coins | 7.3% | 6 | 6.8 | 0.89× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-crimson-web-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $60.39 86.27 coins | 6.7% | 9 | 10.1 | 0.89× | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Arboreal (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-arboreal-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $34.31 49.01 coins | 5.0% | 14 | 13.5 | 1.04× | | [USP-S \| Caiman (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-caiman-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $25.18 35.97 coins | 6.5% | 24 | 23.7 | 1.01× | | [SCAR-20 \| Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-cyrex-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $21.06 30.09 coins | 6.3% | 28 | 27.4 | 1.02× | | [Tec-9 \| Ossified (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-ossified-factory-new) | 20.0% | $8.09 11.55 coins | 6.0% | 68 | 67.6 | 1.01× | | [Sticker \| Sticker Bomb Surf Ava (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-sticker-bomb-surf-ava-foil) | 20.0% | $4.56 6.52 coins | 3.4% | 78 | 67.6 | 1.15× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Tigris (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tigris-minimal-wear) | 25.0% | $2.23 3.18 coins | 2.0% | 85 | 84.5 | 1.01× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Hand Wraps | Slaughter (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-slaughter-minimal-wear) Hidden $30.04 42.92 coins $525 750 coins 17.47x 2026-11-03 01:50 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=fallout) [Sticker | Sticker Bomb Surf Ava (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-sticker-bomb-surf-ava-foil) Hidden $29.89 42.7 coins $4.56 6.52 coins 0.15x 2026-11-11 11:52 UTC [Sticker | Sticker Bomb Surf Ava (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-sticker-bomb-surf-ava-foil) [Miltsukkaaaw :3](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Miltsukkaaaw%20%3A3) $29.89 42.7 coins $4.56 6.52 coins 0.15x 2026-11-11 11:52 UTC [Tec-9 | Ossified (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-ossified-factory-new) Hidden $29.89 42.7 coins $8.09 11.55 coins 0.27x 2026-11-11 11:52 UTC [Tec-9 | Ossified (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-ossified-factory-new) Hidden $29.89 42.7 coins $8.09 11.55 coins 0.27x 2026-11-11 11:52 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Tigris (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tigris-minimal-wear) Hidden $29.89 42.7 coins $2.23 3.18 coins 0.07x 2026-11-10 22:05 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Tigris (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tigris-minimal-wear) Hidden $29.89 42.7 coins $2.23 3.18 coins 0.07x 2026-11-10 22:05 UTC [Sticker | Sticker Bomb Surf Ava (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-sticker-bomb-surf-ava-foil) Hidden $29.89 42.7 coins $4.56 6.52 coins 0.15x 2026-11-10 22:05 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Tigris (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tigris-minimal-wear) [oshri412](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/oshri412) $29.89 42.7 coins $2.23 3.18 coins 0.07x 2026-11-10 22:05 UTC [Tec-9 | Ossified (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-ossified-factory-new) Hidden $29.89 42.7 coins $8.09 11.55 coins 0.27x 2026-11-10 22:05 UTC [Tec-9 | Ossified (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-ossified-factory-new) Hidden $29.89 42.7 coins $8.09 11.55 coins 0.27x 2026-11-10 22:05 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $29.89 | 90.92% | 19 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $30.32 | 90.90% | 19 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $30.04 | 90.92% | 19 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 4.6% covert 14.4% restricted 25.9% classified 15.1% mil spec 20.0% exotic 20.0% best hit $525 (17.47x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.92 on average: an expected loss of $9.08 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt