---
title: "Fancy Pants case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Fancy Pants ($9.09) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.93% from 16 items with odds, observed 97.26% over 15.2K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fancy-pants
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:04Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Fancy Pants](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fancy-pants)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Fancy Pants

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fancy-pants?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fancy-pants?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fancy-pants) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fancy-pants?window=all)

Price · $9.09 · 12.99 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.93% · EV $8.27 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 97.26% · 15.2K openings, odds method

Variance · 9.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 17 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 87.2% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 99.14% ±15.91 1,431 openings

7 days · 94.98% ±5.51 11.9K openings

30 days · 97.26% ±4.88 15.2K openings

since tracking started · 97.26% ±4.88 15.2K openings

82.5% 99.0% 115.5%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 90.94% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (92.38% – 102.13%, 15,167 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fancy-pants?window=24h) | 1,431 | 99.14% ±15.9 | +1.0σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fancy-pants?window=7d) | 11.9K | 94.98% ±5.51 | +1.4σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fancy-pants) | 15.2K | 97.26% ±4.88 | +2.5σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fancy-pants?window=all) | 15.2K | 97.26% ±4.88 | +2.5σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 15.2K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 20,000 | $824 1,177 coins | 0.5% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $507 725 coins | 3.1% | 8 | 7.6 | 1.05× |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $489 699 coins | 5.9% | 17 | 15.2 | 1.12× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $262 374 coins | 1.6% | 13 | 7.6 | 1.71× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $189 270 coins | 4.6% | 28 | 30.4 | 0.92× |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 125 | $113 161 coins | 10.9% | 143 | 121.7 | 1.18× |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $94.50 135 coins | 2.3% | 39 | 30.4 | 1.28× |
| [Tec-9 \| Decimator (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-decimator-factory-new) | 1 in 250 | $81.90 117 coins | 4.0% | 78 | 60.8 | 1.28× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $65.32 93.31 coins | 31.6% | 654 | 608.4 | 1.07× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Hemoglobin (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hemoglobin-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $13.29 18.98 coins | 11.2% | 1,042 | 1064.8 | 0.98× |
| [Nova \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $8.96 12.8 coins | 6.5% | 902 | 912.7 | 0.99× |
| [MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-disco-tech-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $7.27 10.39 coins | 7.2% | 1,251 | 1246.5 | 1.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-light-rail-minimal-wear) | 13.0% | $2.22 3.17 coins | 3.5% | 1,989 | 1977.4 | 1.01× |
| [MAG-7 \| Heat (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-heat-field-tested) | 20.0% | $1.17 1.67 coins | 2.8% | 3,053 | 3042.2 | 1.00× |
| [UMP-45 \| Moonrise (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-moonrise-factory-new) | 20.0% | $1.06 1.51 coins | 2.6% | 2,933 | 3042.2 | 0.96× |
| [Galil AR \| Tuxedo (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-tuxedo-field-tested) | 20.0% | $0.73 1.05 coins | 1.8% | 3,061 | 3042.2 | 1.01× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $9.20 13.14 coins $512 732 coins 55.71x 2026-11-07 20:52 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $9.20 13.14 coins $512 732 coins 55.71x 2026-11-07 07:22 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $9.20 13.14 coins $512 732 coins 55.71x 2026-11-07 05:12 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $9.20 13.14 coins $512 732 coins 55.71x 2026-11-07 00:31 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $9.21 13.15 coins $512 732 coins 55.67x 2026-11-05 13:36 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $9.21 13.15 coins $512 732 coins 55.67x 2026-11-04 12:06 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $9.09 12.99 coins $507 725 coins 55.81x 2026-11-11 12:57 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [m1chi](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/m1chi) $9.09 12.99 coins $507 725 coins 55.81x 2026-11-09 01:15 UTC

[★ Stiletto Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) Hidden $9.09 12.99 coins $489 699 coins 53.81x 2026-11-11 09:49 UTC

[★ Stiletto Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) Hidden $9.09 12.99 coins $489 699 coins 53.81x 2026-11-10 20:47 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=fancy-pants)

[UMP-45 | Moonrise (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-moonrise-factory-new) Hidden $9.09 12.99 coins $1.06 1.51 coins 0.12x 2026-11-11 13:59 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Light Rail (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-light-rail-minimal-wear) [Kisu :)](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Kisu%20%3A%29) $9.09 12.99 coins $2.22 3.17 coins 0.24x 2026-11-11 13:59 UTC

[MAG-7 | Heat (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-heat-field-tested) Hidden $9.09 12.99 coins $1.17 1.67 coins 0.13x 2026-11-11 13:59 UTC

[MAC-10 | Disco Tech (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-disco-tech-minimal-wear) Hidden $9.09 12.99 coins $7.27 10.39 coins 0.80x 2026-11-11 13:59 UTC

[Galil AR | Tuxedo (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-tuxedo-field-tested) Hidden $9.09 12.99 coins $0.73 1.05 coins 0.08x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC

[Galil AR | Tuxedo (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-tuxedo-field-tested) Hidden $9.09 12.99 coins $0.73 1.05 coins 0.08x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Light Rail (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-light-rail-minimal-wear) [malakasohn](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/malakasohn) $9.09 12.99 coins $2.22 3.17 coins 0.24x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC

[MAG-7 | Heat (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-heat-field-tested) Hidden $9.09 12.99 coins $1.17 1.67 coins 0.13x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC

[Galil AR | Tuxedo (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-tuxedo-field-tested) Hidden $9.09 12.99 coins $0.73 1.05 coins 0.08x 2026-11-11 13:21 UTC

[UMP-45 | Moonrise (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-moonrise-factory-new) Hidden $9.09 12.99 coins $1.06 1.51 coins 0.12x 2026-11-11 13:21 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 9 Nov, 00:04 UTC | $9.09 | 90.93% | 16 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $9.09 | 90.88% | 16 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $9.19 | 90.92% | 16 |
| 5 Nov, 22:45 UTC | $9.20 | 90.91% | 16 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $9.21 | 90.90% | 16 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 5.4% epic 0.1% classified 14.6% restricted 60.0% mil spec 20.0% best hit $512 (55.71x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.93 on average: an expected loss of $9.07 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt