---
title: "Fantasy case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Fantasy ($10.16) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.92% from 18 items with odds, observed 101.38% over 4,262 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fantasy
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:02Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Fantasy](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fantasy)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Fantasy

A case on CSGORoll (20%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fantasy?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fantasy?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fantasy) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fantasy?window=all)

Price · $10.16 · 14.51 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.92% · EV $9.24 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 101.38% · 4,262 openings, odds method

Variance · 10.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 12.1% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 80.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 99.17% ±20.92 898 openings

7 days · 100.75% ±10.44 3,535 openings

30 days · 101.38% ±9.49 4,262 openings

since tracking started · 101.38% ±9.49 4,262 openings

77.5% 99.0% 120.5%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 90.95% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (91.89% – 110.87%, 4,262 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fantasy?window=24h) | 898 | 99.17% ±20.9 | +0.8σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fantasy?window=7d) | 3,535 | 100.75% ±10.4 | +1.8σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fantasy) | 4,262 | 101.38% ±9.49 | +2.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fantasy?window=all) | 4,262 | 101.38% ±9.49 | +2.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,262 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 4,000 | $1,553 2,219 coins | 4.2% | 2 | 1.1 | 1.88× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) StatTrak · knife · legendary · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nomad-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 2,500 | $347 496 coins | 1.5% | 2 | 1.7 | 1.17× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 1,538 | $300 429 coins | 2.1% | 8 | 2.8 | 2.89× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-3) | 1 in 1,000 | $228 326 coins | 2.5% | 9 | 4.3 | 2.11× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-factory-new) | 1 in 154 | $178 254 coins | 12.5% | 32 | 27.7 | 1.16× |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-cobalt-skulls-battle-scarred) | 1 in 286 | $140 200 coins | 5.3% | 15 | 14.9 | 1.01× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Starcade (Minimal Wear) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-starcade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,429 | $56.17 80.24 coins | 0.4% | 3 | 3.0 | 1.01× |
| [Sticker \| Flash Gaming (Holo) \| Boston 2018 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-flash-gaming-holo-boston-2018) | 1 in 77 | $43.42 62.03 coins | 6.1% | 50 | 55.4 | 0.90× |
| [P250 \| Undertow (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-undertow-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $36.88 52.69 coins | 6.0% | 70 | 63.9 | 1.09× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $20.36 29.08 coins | 6.6% | 138 | 127.9 | 1.08× |
| [StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Avalanche (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-avalanche-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $16.90 24.14 coins | 9.1% | 200 | 213.1 | 0.94× |
| [Nova \| Tempest (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-tempest-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $15.55 22.21 coins | 11.8% | 273 | 298.3 | 0.92× |
| [Souvenir SG 553 \| Anodized Navy (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-sg-553-anodized-navy-factory-new) | 1 in 111 | $8.42 12.03 coins | 0.8% | 45 | 38.4 | 1.17× |
| [StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Urban Shock (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-dual-berettas-urban-shock-factory-new) | 11.0% | $6.92 9.89 coins | 8.2% | 521 | 468.8 | 1.11× |
| [MAG-7 \| Hard Water (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-hard-water-factory-new) | 13.0% | $4.84 6.91 coins | 6.8% | 519 | 554.1 | 0.94× |
| [Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-stone-cold-minimal-wear) | 18.0% | $4.69 6.7 coins | 9.1% | 723 | 767.2 | 0.94× |
| [StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Ice Cap (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-ice-cap-factory-new) | 18.0% | $2.37 3.38 coins | 4.6% | 760 | 767.2 | 0.99× |
| [Glock-18 \| Bunsen Burner (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bunsen-burner-minimal-wear) | 20.0% | $1.01 1.44 coins | 2.2% | 892 | 852.4 | 1.05× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $10.36 14.8 coins $1,553 2,219 coins 149.9x 2026-11-06 14:09 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $10.36 14.8 coins $1,553 2,219 coins 149.9x 2026-11-05 13:54 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=fantasy)

[StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Ice Cap (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-ice-cap-factory-new) Hidden $10.16 14.51 coins $2.37 3.38 coins 0.23x 2026-11-11 14:00 UTC

[Glock-18 | Bunsen Burner (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bunsen-burner-minimal-wear) Hidden $10.16 14.51 coins $1.01 1.44 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 14:00 UTC

[MAG-7 | Hard Water (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-hard-water-factory-new) [Kisu :)](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Kisu%20%3A%29) $10.16 14.51 coins $4.84 6.91 coins 0.48x 2026-11-11 14:00 UTC

[Galil AR | Stone Cold (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-stone-cold-minimal-wear) Hidden $10.16 14.51 coins $4.69 6.7 coins 0.46x 2026-11-11 14:00 UTC

[StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Ice Cap (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-ice-cap-factory-new) Hidden $10.16 14.51 coins $2.37 3.38 coins 0.23x 2026-11-11 12:58 UTC

[Glock-18 | Bunsen Burner (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bunsen-burner-minimal-wear) Hidden $10.16 14.51 coins $1.01 1.44 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 12:58 UTC

[Galil AR | Stone Cold (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-stone-cold-minimal-wear) Hidden $10.16 14.51 coins $4.69 6.7 coins 0.46x 2026-11-11 12:58 UTC

[Glock-18 | Bunsen Burner (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bunsen-burner-minimal-wear) Hidden $10.16 14.51 coins $1.01 1.44 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 12:58 UTC

[Galil AR | Stone Cold (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-stone-cold-minimal-wear) [R1ckes](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/R1ckes) $10.16 14.51 coins $4.69 6.7 coins 0.46x 2026-11-11 12:58 UTC

[StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Ice Cap (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-ice-cap-factory-new) Hidden $10.16 14.51 coins $2.37 3.38 coins 0.23x 2026-11-11 12:58 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $10.16 | 90.92% | 18 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $10.35 | 90.93% | 18 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $10.36 | 90.89% | 18 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.2% legendary 0.0% classified 2.1% extraordinary 0.4% rare 0.1% remarkable 1.3% pink 3.0% restricted 34.0% blue 7.0% mil spec 31.9% #4b69ff 20.0% best hit $1,553 (149.9x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.92 on average: an expected loss of $9.08 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt