--- title: "Fate case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Fate ($4.72) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 10 items with odds, observed 92.48% over 63K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fate rendered: 2026-11-11T13:18Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Fate](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fate) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Fate A case on CSGORoll (10%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fate?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fate?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fate) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fate?window=all) Price · $4.72 · 6.74 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $4.29 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 92.48% · 63K openings, odds method Variance · 12.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 33 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 90.13% ±7.19 9,295 openings 7 days · 92.97% ±3.04 53.3K openings 30 days · 92.48% ±2.80 63K openings since tracking started · 92.48% ±2.80 63K openings 82.5% 90.3% 98.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fate?window=24h) | 9,295 | 90.13% ±7.19 | −0.2σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fate?window=7d) | 53.3K | 92.97% ±3.04 | +1.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fate) | 63K | 92.48% ±2.80 | +1.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fate?window=all) | 63K | 92.48% ±2.80 | +1.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 63.1K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 10,000 | $291 416 coins | 0.7% | 5 | 6.3 | 0.79× | | [SSG 08 \| Bloodshot (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-bloodshot-minimal-wear) | 1 in 125 | $109 156 coins | 20.4% | 521 | 504.7 | 1.03× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-boreal-forest-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333 | $107 153 coins | 7.5% | 190 | 189.3 | 1.00× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Bright Water (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-bright-water-well-worn) | 1 in 1,000 | $104 149 coins | 2.4% | 63 | 63.1 | 1.00× | | [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-ocean-drive-battle-scarred) | 1 in 56 | $72.10 103 coins | 30.3% | 1,195 | 1135.6 | 1.05× | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Night (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-night-battle-scarred) | 1 in 169 | $63.79 91.13 coins | 8.8% | 357 | 372.2 | 0.96× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-point-disarray-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $28.64 40.91 coins | 20.0% | 1,893 | 1892.6 | 1.00× | | [AWP \| Fever Dream (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $12.39 17.7 coins | 9.8% | 2,132 | 2145.0 | 0.99× | | [MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-battle-scarred) | 45.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.1% | 28,532 | 28389.6 | 1.01× | | [MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 45.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.1% | 28,200 | 28389.6 | 0.99× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) [zero without cheats :/](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/zero%20without%20cheats%20%3A%2F) $4.79 6.85 coins $305 435 coins 63.50x 2026-11-05 21:10 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) [✪ＡNt csgoroll.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/%E2%9C%AA%EF%BC%A1Nt%20csgoroll.com) $4.79 6.85 coins $305 435 coins 63.50x 2026-11-03 18:39 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) Hidden $4.79 6.85 coins $305 435 coins 63.50x 2026-11-03 12:37 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) [UnfairScroll27](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/UnfairScroll27) $4.79 6.85 coins $305 435 coins 63.50x 2026-11-03 11:33 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) [Pflaumenhandel](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Pflaumenhandel) $4.79 6.85 coins $305 435 coins 63.50x 2026-11-02 22:21 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) Hidden $4.72 6.74 coins $291 416 coins 61.72x 2026-11-11 06:26 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) Hidden $4.72 6.74 coins $291 416 coins 61.72x 2026-11-10 16:35 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) Hidden $4.66 6.66 coins $291 416 coins 62.46x 2026-11-08 18:36 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=fate) [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $4.72 6.74 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:17 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $4.72 6.74 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:17 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-battle-scarred) Hidden $4.72 6.74 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:17 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $4.72 6.74 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:17 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-battle-scarred) [REAL SKINCOLLECTOR](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/REAL%20SKINCOLLECTOR) $4.72 6.74 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:17 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Point Disarray (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-point-disarray-field-tested) Hidden $4.72 6.74 coins $28.64 40.91 coins 6.07x 2026-11-11 13:17 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $4.72 6.74 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:17 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-battle-scarred) Hidden $4.72 6.74 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:17 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $4.72 6.74 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:17 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) [REAL SKINCOLLECTOR](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/REAL%20SKINCOLLECTOR) $4.72 6.74 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:17 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $4.72 | 90.91% | 10 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $4.68 | 90.85% | 10 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $4.79 | 90.87% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 2.8% classified 7.2% consumer 90.0% best hit $305 (63.50x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt